Not even a fully-healthy Celtics lineup could slow down the surging Miami Heat, who get their first shot at advancing to the NBA Finals on Friday night.
Boston got off to a slow start, then collapsed down the stretch of a 112-109 loss that has put the Celtics on the brink of elimination. Tyler Herro erupted for 37 points to become the latest player to shine for the Heat, who came into the 2019-20 campaign as whopping +35,000 underdogs to win the NBA championship but are now installed at an intriguing +350 in most places.
These are our favorite NBA free picks and predictions for Heat vs. Celtics on September 25.
Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics betting preview
NBA Odds to Win Series
Heat: -500
Celtics: +400
Injuries
Heat: Chris Silva PF (Out), Bam Adebayo C (Probable)
Celtics: Javonte Green SG (Questionable)
Find our latest NBA injury reports for every game.
Betting Trend to Know
The Heat are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Celtics.
Heat vs Celtics line movement
UPDATE 8 P.M. ET FRIDAY: "The public is betting on Celtics and the Over," said Reyna Hernandez, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate. Hernandez also noted sharp play on the Heat moneyline. "The book actually needs Celtics and the Under." Boston opened -3 and is now -3.5, and the total moved from 213 to 213.5.
UPDATE 5 P.M. ET FRIDAY: The line bounced between Celtics -3 and -3.5 since opening early Thursday at DraftKings, and it's at -3.5 right now. The bulk of bettors and their money, however, are backing Miami to not only cover, but win outright tonight. The Heat are attracting 71 percent of tickets/61 percent of money on the spread, and 62 percent of tickets/61 percent of money on the moneyline. The total inched up from 212.5 to 213, with the Over a popular play, taking 81 percent of bets and 88 percent of cash.
UPDATE 1 P.M. ET FRIDAY: BetMGM opened Boston -2.5 and moved to -3, and while point-spread ticket count is almost a toss-up, with the Celtics at 51.7 percent, money bet is a very different story. The Celts are taking 90 percent of spread handle, with bettors expecting them to stay alive and cover tonight. The total of 213 ticked up to 213.5 today, with the Over getting about 85 percent of tickets and money. BetMGM wouldn't necessarily mind seeing the Heat end this series tonight, as the Celtics are the book's biggest liability to win the Eastern Conference.
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Desperate Boston opened a 2-point favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook late Wednesday night and moved to -3.5 by late Thursday night. And that line movement came with some unusual early betting splits: just 37 percent of point-spread tickets were on Boston, but Team Green was getting 69 percent of spread money. The total opened at 213 and went to 212.5 for a few hours Thursday, before returning to the opener. The Over is attracting 80 percent of bets and 60 percent of money.
Against the Spread Pick
The Boston Celtics are favored for the fifth straight time in the series – but at this point, does that really mean anything? The Miami Heat have outplayed the higher seed throughout this series and controlled the play when it mattered most Wednesday night, turning a one-point deficit into an eight-point advantage in a three-minute span midway through the fourth quarter.
If you're looking for a reason to ride with the Celtics in this one, consider that they came up just short despite getting zero points from their star player, Jayson Tatum, in the first half. Tatum more than made up for it with 28 points on the night, but it was too little, too late for a Celtics team that shot well but turned the ball over 19 times in defeat.
Miami has had answers for every Boston tactic and remains very much in charge of the series. We see this one ending Friday.
PREDICTION: Miami +3.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Pour one out for those who had the U211.5 in Game 4. After the teams scored just 94 points in the first half, they erupted for 59 in the third quarter and 68 (!) to cruise to their third Over of the series. And with the only Under so far coming in just one point below the total, these teams have exceeded oddsmakers' expectations when it comes to offensive output.
The number for Game 5 is up slightly at 213, and that might give totals bettors pause. It's the highest of the series so far, and is a full five points up from where it was just three games ago. But make no mistake: both sides have proven capable of putting up points, and should continue to trade blows in a series that has been surprisingly high scoring through four games.
This one should be close, but we're shading towards the Over.
PREDICTION: Over 213 (-110)
Team/score prop pick
One great way to maximize your return on investment is to find creative ways to leverage basic bets into prop plays. And that's exactly what we're doing here, by taking the Heat to win and the game to go above the total. We like both sides to finish with 100+ points, which makes for a sensational profit opportunity no matter which team wins.
We like the Heat in this case, which pays out at a better rate than the favored Celtics.
PREDICTION: Miami Win/Both Teams to Score 100+ Points (+350)
Heat vs Celtics Betting Card
- Miami +3.5 (-110)
- Over 213 (-110)
- Miami Win/Both Teams to Score 100+ Points (+350)
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