Home-field dominance might be harder to come by for MLB betting with no fans in the stands, but the Atlanta Braves are having no trouble winning in their home park as they look to complete a three-game sweep of the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday night.
The Braves have scored 17 runs in winning the first two games of the series, including an 11-2 drubbing of the reeling Phillies on Saturday. Atlanta comes into the finale having won five of six games to seize a two-game lead atop the National League East, while Philly has dropped five in a row while surrendering 35 runs over that span — yet MLB odds for tonight's contest is a pick'em.
We break down the baseball odds and bring our best Phillies vs. Braves picks and predictions for MLB action for Sunday, August 23.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves betting preview
Starting pitchers
Zach Eflin RHP (0-1, 5.14 ERA, 1.50 WHIP) vs Josh Tomlin RHP (1-0, 2.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP)
The Phillies have been mostly strong in Eflin's starts – going 2-1 so far this season – but Eflin has yet to taste personal success as he seeks his first victory since Sept. 28, 2019. Eflin has allowed four runs in each of his previous two starts, though he has racked up 18 strikeouts over that span. That said, he has allowed seven homers in 74 at-bats to current members of the Atlanta roster.
Tomlin will make his second start of 2020, following eight relief appearances to start the season. Tomlin has been one of the Braves' most reliable pitchers, boasting a 2.35 ERA while limiting opponents to a .214 BA. But the 35-year-old late bloomer has given up 89.5 percent medium or hard contact this season, so there could be some run regression coming – and soon.
Weather
SunTrust Park will see partly cloudy to overcast skies Sunday night, with the mercury dipping to 82 degrees by first pitch. The wind will be out of the southeast at 7 MPH, so it likely won't have much impact on fly balls. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Injuries
Phillies: RF Jay Bruce (Out)
Braves: RF Nick Markakis (Out), 2B Ozzie Albies (Out), LF Ronald Acuna Jr. (Out)
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Braves have won 12 of their previous 16 home games vs. the Phillies. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Braves.
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First inning prop pick
We've had early fireworks in each of the first two games of the series, with the Phillies scoring in the first inning in back-to-back outings (not that it helped them all that much.) And that has been one of the few things Philadelphia has working in its favor this season, with the NL East basement dwellers leading the majors with an average of 1.04 first-inning runs per game.
But we could see the Braves respond in kind Sunday. While Atlanta ranks 20th in the league in first-inning runs per outing (0.37), they are facing the right man on the mound for bolstering that number: Eflin has a dreadful 5.73 first-inning ERA over the course of his career, with 15 home runs surrendered in 77 first innings overall.
We're surprised – but not disappointed – that the first inning run odds aren't higher. And we're all over it.
PREDICTION: 1st Inning Run: Yes (-125)
Over/Under pick
How many ways can we pick on the Philadelphia bullpen? That's what a lot of bettors are asking themselves these days as the Phillies continue to have all sorts of problems getting batters out late in games. The Philadelphia bullpen comes into Sunday's finale having allowed 11 runs in seven innings against the Braves, lifting its ERA for the season to 8.29.
The Braves' bullpen has been serviceable on the season, boasting a 3.47 ERA – sixth-best in the majors. But it'll probably need to go a little longer Sunday with Tomlin not expected to go deep, which should boost Philadelphia's scoring potential late. Add it to our expectation of plenty of early scoring, and we see this one going Over.
PREDICTION: Over 9.5 (-110)
Player total bases pick
Bryce Harper has been on fire lately, which is the only other thing the Phillies have going for them at the moment. The star slugger ranks sixth in the league with a .343 batting average and made a triumphant return to the Philadelphia lineup Saturday, belting a three-run homer while drawing a pair of walks in the 6-5 defeat.
As unfathomable as it might seem, Harper has reached base in all 22 games he has played so far this season. He's also 6-for-15 with a pair of homers against the Braves in 2020. And while he's 0-for-5 with three Ks vs. Tomlin, we don't see Atlanta's starter going deep in this game. Take the Over on Harper's total bases prop — it's one of the top player plays of the day.
PREDICTION: Bryce Harper Over 1.5 total bases (-130)
Phillies vs Braves betting card
- 1st Inning Run: Yes (-125)
- Over 9.5 (-110)
- Bryce Harper Over 1.5 total bases (-130)
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