Ryan Garcia vs. Oscar Duarte is a clash between two heavy-handed junior welterweights and the premier boxing attraction this Saturday, December 2, at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas.
Garcia is looking to rebound from his high-profile loss to Gervonta Davis last Spring, and he’ll need to be on point as Duarte’s finishing skills are a real threat.
Boxing odds have Garcia a -425 favorite and Duarte a +295 underdog. Keep reading for my free betting picks below.
Ryan Garcia vs Oscar Duarte odds
| Method of victory | Ryan Garcia | Oscar Duarte |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -425 | +295 |
| Win by KO/TKO | -145 | +550 |
| Win by points or decision | +290 | +800 |
| Draw | +1,600 | +1,600 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of November 27, 2023.
Ryan Garcia vs Oscar Duarte betting predictions
Picks made on November 27. Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Ryan Garcia vs Oscar Duarte boxing prediction and best bet
Prediction: Ryan Garica ML
Victorville’s Ryan Garcia has had a busy few months following his seventh-round TKO loss to rival Davis in April.
For those who haven’t kept up, Garcia immediately separated from trainer Joe Goossen to train with Derrick James, then engaged in a highly public feud with promoter Oscar De La Hoya that resulted in Garcia filing a lawsuit in June.
Coupled with Garcia’s questionable focus and previous mental health issues, this adds more intrigue than needed for a simple bounceback fight.
Duarte is a big puncher with a light resume. From a skill standpoint, Duarte is an easy mark for Garcia, but the Davis fight exposed Garcia in a way that he’s grown over-reliant on his left hook and offensive capabilities.
Though Duarte doesn’t have Davis’ underrated counter-punching skills to go along with his power, he does have an avenue to victory if Garcia decides wantonly to engage in a brawl.
We’ll get another new look at Garcia as he’s in his first fight with James in his corner. James has not had a good year as Errol Spence and Jermell Charlo took lopsided beatings in their high-profile bouts, and his last fight as Anthony Joshua’s trainer failed to impress.
What Garcia desperately needs is a strong, stern presence in his corner, and James doesn’t seem to be up to the task based on his body of work this year.
This could be a riskier fight for Garcia than many would like to admit. All things considered, Garcia has enough natural talent to diffuse Duarte before he gets exploded on. I’ll be watching this one more cautiously than most, but I’m going with Garcia to get back on track with a win.
Prediction: Ryan Garcia moneyline (-425 at DraftKings)
Best bet: Ryan Garcia to win by decision
Duarte’s mechanics and lack of defensive awareness are real, exploitable issues that Garcia can bring to the surface. His footwork is poor, he throws out of position often and leaves himself open to body shots.
He does come forward and looks to pressure, but he’s looked befuddled when an opponent comes at him from angles or moves laterally. Though Garcia has his own faults, he is the better and more accomplished fighter.
Garcia’s vaunted hand speed will stop Duarte in his tracks, and he might not be able to guess if Garcia is coming with a left hook to the head or body.
Unless he’s caught early, Garcia will grow more confident as the fight draws on. Considering the switch to the new trainer, and the legitimate power of his opponent, I don’t expect him to launch an unhinged attack and put himself at risk of losing the fight.
Garcia will pick his spots, throw some flashy punches, and be comfortable outclassing Duarte once he feels he’s out of danger to win a dominant decision.
Prediction: Ryan Garcia to win by decision (+290 at DraftKings)
Ryan Garcia vs Oscar Duarte betting preview
Garcia returns from his April KO loss to Davis and looks to establish himself as a contender in the loaded junior welterweight division. Despite never holding a world title, Garcia is one of boxing’s biggest stars. He’s scored wins over Luke Campbell, Francisco Fonseca, and Javier Fortuna.
Duarte has knocked out his last 10 opponents since suffering the first defeat of his career in 2019. The Mexican brawler ends his fights early with an 80% KO rate and an average fight time of 4.6 rounds. Though he's well-traveled on the club circuit in Mexico, he’s shown that there is substance to his game.
The left-hook-heavy Garcia must rely more on his movement and hand speed to avoid getting caught by one of the best punchers he’s faced in his career.
Duarte’s crude, clubbing style might make him a sitting duck against Garcia, but he’ll need to endure Garcia’s speed in hopes of landing a shot that will change his career. Garcia is the younger fighter at 25, and Duarte will have a half-inch advantage in height and a one-inch advantage in reach.
