Saul “Canelo” Alvarez aims to become a two-time undisputed champion at super middleweight as he makes his 2025 debut against IBF champion William Scull. The undefeated Cuban looks to play spoiler as Alvarez has eyes on a superfight with Terence Crawford later this year
Boxing odds have Alvarez as the favorite at -4000 while Scull is a +1500 underdog. Here are my best Garcia vs. Romero predictions and free betting picks from ANB Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Alvarez vs Scull prediction and pick
- My fight prediction: Alvarez moneyline (-4000 at DraftKings)
- My best bet: Over 9.5 rounds (-125 at DraftKings)
Fight analysis
It is getting harder to root for Canelo Alvarez as he has greatly scaled down his level of opposition over the last few years and is looking like a well-paid man content to get a full night's work by going through the motions.
Dominant wins over Jaime Munguia and Edgar Berlanga last year should have ended in knockouts, but Alvarez was content to string them along and never pressed for a stoppage with victory all but assured. That lack of killer instinct is a telltale sign of decline, but he remains one of the best fighters in the world, and William Scull is not equipped to defeat him.
The conservative and tactical Cuban has only gone 12 rounds twice in 23 bouts and fights like a man who knows he can’t punch. He throws one shot at a time, usually a jab, and seldom throws combinations, immediately retreating to reset. There is no inside fighting, only repetitive clinching, meaning his defense falls more on the disruptive side than that of a slick counter-puncher who could slow Alvarez down.
Alvarez will walk Scull down from the beginning and take advantage of his opponent constantly dropping his hands after throwing or landing a punch. There won’t be many opportunities for Alvarez to land one of his highlight-reel counters, but we might get more offense from him than we’ve seen in recent fights due to Scull’s lack of power and initiative.
One pattern Scull shows is getting to the middle of the ring, then immediately pedaling backward and circling along the ropes, punching and clinching his way back to the center. Alvarez excels at cutting off the ring and drilling opponents with combinations, and that will likely define the fight.
There isn’t much Scull can do besides make the fight extremely ugly, much like he did against Vladimir Shishkin, where he clinched his way to victory but had to survive a late push once Shishkin finally broke through. This fight should look like Alvarez’s recent performances: a one-sided beating that shouldn’t go the distance but probably will. Alvarez is the pick.
Best best analysis
Alvarez will not risk the September payday against Terence Crawford by going all-out on Scull. He will do enough to dominate, which will be easy due to Scull’s lack of power and limited output, but he will keep Scull upright past the halfway point, just as he did against Berlanga.
Either Scull goes into full retreat, or Alvarez potshots his way to a safe win. My best bet is that the fight goes over 9.5 rounds.
Canelo Alvarez vs William Scull odds
| Method of victory | Canelo Alvarez | William Scull |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -4000 | +1500 |
| Win by KO/TKO | -225 | +2200 |
| Win by points or decision | +180 | +3000 |
| Draw | +2800 | +2800 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 5-3.
Canelo Alvarez vs William Scull tale of the tape
| Alvarez | Scull | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Age | 32 |
| 5-foot-7 | Height | 5-foot-11 |
| Super Middleweight | Weight Class | Super Middleweight |
| 70 inches | Reach | 73 inches |
| 62-2-2 | Record | 23-0 |
| 39 | Wins by KO | 9 |
Not intended for use in MA.
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