Indy 500 odds, betting predictions

The 104th running of the Indy 500 is this weekend, but don't expect to see a rookie win — or see a repeat winner.

Eric Smith - Contributor at Covers.com
Eric Smith • Betting Analyst
Aug 19, 2020 • 02:17 ET
IndyCar Series racers compete in the Indy 500
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Indy 500 odds are on the board as the premier event of the 2020 IndyCar Series - and one of the most prestigious racing events overall - is set to take place this Sunday at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

Auto Racing Advisor sizes up the odds for the famous 500-mile race and gives his favorite Indy 500 predictions and betting picks for the 104th running of the Indianapolis 500 on August 23, with the green flag dropping at 1:00 p.m. ET.

Indy 500 betting odds

Driver Odds to Win
Scott Dixon +400
Alexander Rossi +750
Ryan Hunter-Reay +800
Marco Andretti +850
Josef Newgarden +1,100
Will Power +1,200
Simon Pagenaud +1,400
Takuma Sato +1,600
Rinus VeeKay +1,600
Colton Herta +2,000
James Hinchcliffe +2,200
Fernando Alonso +2,500
Conor Daly +2,500
Graham Rahal +2,500
Felix Rosenqvist +2,500
Helio Castroneves +3,300
Patricio O'Ward +3,500
Ed Carpenter +4,000
Marcus Ericsson +4,500
Alex Palou +4,500

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Who will win the Indy 500?

Favorites to bet

Scott Dixon (+400)

He may only have one Indy 500 victory in his career, but he won the lone superspeedway race on the season at Texas back in June. Dixon started second that day and he starts second on Sunday for the '500. Dixon was also in the Top 3 in the first three practice sessions in race trim too. 

Alexander Rossi (+750)

He's at his best on superspeedways. Rossi has never finished worse than seventh at Indy, including a runner-up last year. 

Ryan Hunter-Reay (+800)

He's looked stout all week of practice and even qualified fifth. Hunter-Reay also has two Top-8 finishes in each of his last two Indy starts.

Marco Andretti (+850)

Quickest on Fast Friday and had the fastest car in both days of qualifying. Andretti is starting on the pole and he also hasn't been worse than third in any practice session last week either.

Will Power (+1,200)

Arguably the best superspeedway racer in the series right now. Power won this race in 2018 and was fifth last year. He has five Top-10 finishes in his last six Indy 500 tries. 

 

Long shots to bet

Simon Pagenaud (+1,400)

You're getting the defending winner at these odds? Everyone has said that Pagenaud's car looks to be the strongest out there on race trim too. 

Takuma Sato (+1600)

He was third in last year's race. He won in 2017. He starts third this year and the only other time he started in the Top 10 here, he won. You can get him for this price?

Conor Daly (+2500)

His race pace has been in the Top 10 all week. Daly had his best career result here last year. Watch out for him on race day. 

Helio Castroneves (+3300)

Do you mean to tell me I can get a three-time Indy 500 winner for these odds? He was in the Top 5 in race practice on Sunday too. 

Alex Palou (+4500)

The fearless rookie looks to be among those that just get the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Palou was in the Top 10 of every practice session and he qualified seventh. 

Betting Indianapolis Motor Speedway

This year's Indy 500 will look a bit different. The Aeroscreen will debut for the first time on the Indy oval and these cars are being difficult to drive as a result. That's led to varying strategies between the two manufacturers. Honda went for qualifying pace, so they can have the track position up front, while Chevy went with more race pace so they can hopefully pass people.

Which wins out?

Starting position has mattered lately, with the last three race winners coming from fourth, second and first, respectively. That bodes well for Honda, since they start 1-2-3 and have 11 of the Top 12 starters, and Chevy has 11 of the bottom 12 starters.

Rookie Winner? Not Likely

In the past 103 years of this race, only nine times has a rookie driver won. It’s happened three times in the last 52 years and only four times in the last 91 years. So, while two rookies start in the first 3 Rows, it's not likely they will win.

Repeat Winner? Also not Likely

Pagenaud has the odds stacked against him this weekend. The last repeat winner was his teammate Helio Castroneves in 2001 and 2002. And Helio was the last repeat winner since Al Unser Sr. in 1970 and 1971. That’s two times this has happened in 65 years. Do you think it happens for the third time in 66 years? Doubtful.

Stat to Watch

We've had a first-time winner of this race in each of the last six years. Since 2003, only two drivers have won the Indy 500 more than once. 

Pages related to this topic

Eric Smith - Covers.com
Betting Analyst

Eric Smith has over a decade of experience in motorsports. Beginning with Bleacher Report in 2011 to becoming a nationally accredited motorsports journalist, Eric has been featured in numerous publications. His love of the sport helped spark a path to Covers in 2019 as an auto racing analyst providing insights into how to bet and who to be on the NASCAR scene.

NASCAR is a unique sport to wager on with the percentages of a win less than the 50-50 venture of stick-and-ball sports. However, Eric found a method to wager on multiple drivers to come away profitable in the end. His experience in the sport and his aforementioned technique has allowed Eric to decipher pages of data to compute a winner at a 70% clip.

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