NBA Picks

Boston’s defense refocused after its first two losses this postseason. After Miami scored 111 points in Game 2 of the first round, the Celtics held the Heat to 30% from deep and 48% from the field in scoring just 84 points in Game 3. When the Cavs scored 118 points in Game 2 of the second round, Boston held the Cavs to 33% from deep and 43% from the field in scoring just 93 points in Game 3. Joe Mazzulla certainly adjusts well on the rare occasion an opponent catches Boston off guard. And a team this good may sometimes need that jolt to refocus.

In Game 4, P.J. Washington only played 13 minutes and scored 6 points, but this shouldn't scare you at all. Washington was in foul trouble, which reduced his minutes in the first half, and then the score kept him out of the game in the second half. Washington is one of three Mavericks with an extremely secure role in this series and should see elevated minutes. Yet, his points total has dropped from 14.5 to 11.5 because of his box score from Game 4. With the drop to 11.5 points, I'm betting on the Over because Washington is heavily involved in the offense in this series. He is setting screens, pushing the ball in transition, getting into the lane in the half-court, posting up, and has begun to knock down his above-the-break three-pointers. Washington is projected to score 14 points on Monday against the Celtics, which allows us to price the Over 11.5 points at -177.

This is an alternate total that I'm attacking because it has a higher expected value than the 3.5 total due to the pricing and the projection. You can find it in the assists milestones at bet365. I placed this bet in Game 4, and although it didn't hit, nothing changes for me in Game 5. I don't anticipate Kristaps Porzingis playing, and if he does, it won't be for significant minutes. With Porzingis not on the floor, White moves from the dunker's spot to the perimeter, where he can create more offense. The Mavericks will aim to close the three-point gap on the Celtics, and White leads the NBA Finals in three-pointers made. There should be a concerted effort by the Mavericks to run White off the three-point line, allowing him to get into the lane and generate potential assists for his teammates. White is projected to have 5 assists against the Mavericks, which allows us to price the Over 4.5 assists at -122.

Jason Kidd has been searching for a Mavericks player in this series who can handle the ball to take the pressure off Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic, and who can knock down the above-the-break three-pointer. Going into Game 5, I think he has a lot more clarity on this front, and that player is Dante Exum. You could also see on film that the Mavericks were really trying to push the pace in Game 4, and Exum helps in that area as well. What really stood out to me on film was an inverted pick-and-roll that the Mavericks ran with Exum as the ball handler and Doncic as the screener. It allowed Doncic to get a matchup against Sam Hauser in the midrange and knock down a jump shot. I think Exum could have a much larger role in Game 5 than this Over 0.5 assists (-125) implies. Exum is projected for 1.1 assists on Monday, which allows us to price the Over 0.5 assists at -181.

Luka Doncic is only averaging 5.8 assists in the Finals, a marked drop from his 9.8 average in the regular season. With a player of Luka’s caliber, there’s always going to be the worry that his performance is going to rebound toward career norms, but with the way the Celtics are playing him, I believe the chances of that are quite low. It’s not that his teammates are just missing shots which would be subject to some randomness and possible regression, it’s that Luka simply isn’t in position to set up his teammates nearly as often as usual.

Doncic has averaged 29.5 points in this series, falling short of this points prop in all four games. This should hardly be surprising, no matter how good Doncic is. First of all, he is clearly more injured than the broader world realizes. Secondly, Boston has enough wing defenders to pester Doncic at all moments while never risking a clearly overmatched defender. Keeping Doncic’s points prop a full bucket higher than his average in this series and higher than any game he has put together thus far can be explained only by this being an elimination game. Well, Game 4 was an elimination game, too. That did not spur Doncic over this number.

The last two games have made it clear, Irving most benefits from Porzingis’s absence in the paint. Irving scored 28 points on 13-of-37 shooting in the first two games. With Porzingis out of the way, Irving managed 35 and 21 points in the next two games, the latter a bit undone by going 1-of-6 from deep. For all his dazzling dribbling and absurd shotmaking, the core of Irving’s offensive game is an ability to get into the lane. A 7-foot-2 Latvian buttressed by a bevy of wing defenders made that far more difficult. Removing that anchor has helped Irving break loose.

Boston was intentional about focusing more of Porzingis’s minutes against Lively, trying to slow Lively’s repeated chances at easy lay-ins courtesy. With Porzingis simply in the same orbit, those looks became more scarce. Lively went just 2-of-4 from the floor in the first two games of the series, scoring two points in each game, his only single-bucket outputs since the first two games of the second round. Remove Porzingis from that space and Lively’s rookie excellence became apparent again, going 9-of-11 from the floor and scoring 11 points in each game. Without Boston’s one true big man, the defense lags a bit, as Lively showed in Games 3 and 4, and he should again tonight.

This prop was released by Adam Scherer on our NBA Prop Picks Show powered by EV Analytics on the Covers YouTube channel. The market assumes that Dereck Lively will play a ton of minutes based on the pricing of Lively's rebound prop. The projection has Lively playing 25 minutes and still falling Under the total of 8.5 rebounds. The 25-minute projection is a generous estimate that still gives an edge to the Under, and there are several scenarios that could lead to Lively not exceeding 25 minutes of playing time. Lively splits time with Daniel Gafford, Maxi Kleber is also in the mix, and we have seen the Mavericks utilize a small lineup with P.J. Washington at the 5. Adam has Lively priced at -244 to go under the total of 8.5 rebounds on Monday.

This prop was released by Adam Scherer on our NBA Prop Picks Show powered by EV Analytics on the Covers YouTube channel. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Adam is looking to cash in on his fourth Under involving Doncic's points prop in this series. Doncic is projected to score 29.6 points in 41 minutes in Game 5 on Monday. The minutes could creep higher than 41, but with the projection falling so far Under the total of 32.5 points, you'd still have an edge on this number. Adam has Doncic priced at -223 to go Under the total of 32.5 points on Monday.

This prop was released by Adam Scherer on our NBA Prop Picks Show powered by EV Analytics on the Covers YouTube channel. This bet relies more on the projection and the numbers tied to it. Holiday is only projected for 37 minutes, but the projection for this line by EV Analytics is 16.8. Even if Holiday plays more than 37 minutes, there's such a healthy gap on this number that your edge will decrease but not completely disappear. Adam has Holiday priced at -187 to go Under the total of 18.5 points + assists in Game 5 of the NBA Finals.