Saturday’s Preakness Stakes certainly lost some allure and a boatload of handle by not having Maximum Security – the disqualified Kentucky Derby winner – or Country House – the elevated Derby winner – in the field at Pimlico. But oddsmakers don’t see this as a bad thing for the second leg of the Triple Crown, noting it’s created an improved betting opportunity for horse players. **video
Ed DeRosa, director of marketing for TwinSpires.com, agrees that Improbable should be the morning line favorite, with the Kentucky Derby holdover at 2.5/1, and that fellow Derby entrant War of Will is the worthy second choice at 4/1. However, the near-full 13-horse field, coupled with the absence of the bigger Derby names, could lead to a wide-open race.
“I think part of what makes this interesting is that not a lot of public handicappers are picking Improbable,” DeRosa told Covers, alluding to the fourth-place horse in the Kentucky Derby. “There’s no overwhelming zest to pick him. Conventional wisdom is that there are a lot of other opportunities. Technically, it’s not quite full – they can go with 14 horses – but 13 is a good number.
“There’s disappointment in the mainstream that we’re not getting a rematch from the Derby. But from a betting standpoint, 13 horses, that’s 17,000 superfecta combinations, which is 10 times more than last year.”
That’s because last year’s Preakness had just eight horses, including heavy 2/5 favorite and winner Justify.
“You’ve got a much better chance of hitting a big ticket,” DeRosa said. “There’s no horse like Justify this year, and several in the 10/1 or 20/1 range who have legitimate chances.”
Beyond Improbable and War of Will, DeRosa pointed to a couple of entries that piqued his interest – one among the top challengers and the other in the dark-horse category.
“Among the top challengers is a horse who did not run in the Kentucky Derby, Alwaysmining,” DeRosa said of the 8/1 fourth choice, a Maryland-based horse who might have a little home-track advantage. “He’s kind of a wild card. I could see him being as low as 9/2 or as high as 8/1 or 10/1. For a dark horse, Bodexpress should be 20/1. He was second behind Maximum Security in the Florida Derby. He ran OK in the Kentucky Derby (14th). If you believed in him in the Kentucky Derby, I wouldn’t give up on him here at a big price.”
With several horses that could contend for the win, DeRosa compared the Preakness with the NCAA Tournament. As pari-mutuel wagering prepares to open Friday morning, there are plenty of worthy lower seeds, if you will, beyond the current consensus top seed of Improbable.
“Anecdotally, talking with other handicappers, if you’ve got a strong opinion, you’ll probably be able to get a price you like – take the longest prices for the horses you like,” he said. “Take that shot with a mid-major, pick that opportunity where others are leaning on the chalk. I definitely don’t like Improbable. I like War of Will, but he’s taken a lot of money. He’s like Gonzaga!
“I think there are five or six horses that could win. Look at the board and see what’s the best value. Everfast (50/1) is the only horse that would surprise me. Other than the longest of shots, I think most of these horses belong in this race.”
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.
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