Two giants of March Madness lead their respective programs into the East Region final of the NCAA Tournament, when the No. 1 Duke Blue Devils led by coach Mike Krzyzewski face the No. 2 Michigan State Spartans and Tom Izzo.
Jason Logan breaks down the NCAA Tournament odds for this monster matchup and gives his best March Madness bets and predictions for Sunday’s Elite Eight East final.
NO. 2 MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS VS NO. 1 DUKE BLUE DEVILS
Odds: Duke -1.5, 148.5 at FanDuel Sportsbooks
Start Time: 5:05 p.m. ET Capital One Arena, Washington, DC**video
BEST QUICK-HITTING BET
Duke takes a little while to get all its engines going, which is why bettors going against the Blue Devils in the popular “First to 15” prop are a perfect 3-0 for the NCAA Tournament.
The Blue Devils lost 16-12 to North Dakota State, 17-11 to Central Florida, and fell behind 15-9 to Virginia Tech Friday night. In fact, Duke is just 3-6 in its last nine games overall when it comes to cracking 15 points first.
As for Michigan State, it's been beat to 15 only once in its six postseason games (13-15 vs. Bradley) going back to the Big Ten tournament, including blasting out of the starting blocks with 17-9, 16-7, and 15-4 leads in that span.
PREDICTION: Michigan State “First to 15”
BEST FIRST-HALF BET
Taking some of those figures above into consideration while noting that Duke is averaging 36.3 first-half points in the NCAA Tournament, you have to have a long hard look at the Blue Devils’ first-half team total.
Michigan State will be cautious with the ball to start the game and will try not to get into a track meet with Zion Williamson, R.J. Barrett, and the rest of Duke’s speedsters, who love to play a frenetic pace. That strategy will only last so long, but I believe it opens a window for value on the Under 35.5 points bookies are pegging Duke’s production at for the opening 20 minutes.
PREDICTION: Under Duke first-half team total 35.5
BEST TEAM/PLAYER PROP BET
Sunday’s Elite Eight game may have a bit of a prize fight feel to it. Both sides will slowly feel each other out over the first 10 minutes before exploding for offensive action, especially after the halftime break.
Michigan State has consistently been one of the best second-half scorers all season, averaging 40.8 points in the final 20 minutes. That’s held true in the NCAA Tournament, with 40, 37, and 42 points in the second half of those Big Dance outings.
Duke has been a little lackadaisical in the opening minutes of its postseason games but after the half, the Blue Devils have outscored teams 128-110 – an average team total of almost 43 second-half points per contest.
Oddsmakers are wise to these numbers, with the first-half total set at 70.5 and the second-half total almost 10 points higher at 79.5. I don’t think that’s going to be enough to contain the talents on these teams down the stretch.
PREDICTION: Over 79.5 in the second half
**video
BEST OVER/UNDER BET
Both Michigan State and Duke rank among the top programs in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.com, but there’s a surplus of offensive firepower on the floor that just won’t be denied Sunday.
The Blue Devils have been saddled with methodical opponents throughout the NCAA, playing North Dakota State (312th in tempo), Central Florida (310th), and Virginia Tech (334th), and managed to enforce their frantic pace on those foes, scoring 85, 77 and 75 and playing Over the total in those contests with UCF and VT. I expect Duke to score effectively in the paint and continue to thrive in transition.
Michigan State can get up and down the floor with the best of them, sitting fourth in offensive efficiency and in the middle of the road in terms of tempo. The Spartans just dropped 80 on LSU, connecting on 47 percent of their shots and hitting 13 of 32 from beyond the arc – a bit of a surprise considering MSU attempts just under 22 shots from long range per game on the year.
The Spartans have been great defensively during their recent hot streak, holding five straight opponents to 65 points or less while playing Under in four of those game. Of those five opponents – LSU, Minnesota, Bradley, Michigan, and Wisconsin – only the Tigers (127th) sat inside the Top 199 in offensive efficiency.
There’s no way MSU checks Duke to 65 points or less, with Coack K’s kids parked 14th in offensive efficiency and 19th in tempo. The Blue Devils will get their buckets and the Spartans will have to counter with steady shooting of their own, looking to make up for lost possessions by striking from 3-point range.
PREDICTION: Over 148.5
BEST POINTSPREAD BET
This spread opened as high as Duke -3 and was instantly bet down to -1.5 with money on the Spartans. I agree that Michigan State looks like the much better team in terms of NCAA efforts, but I’m blaming recency bias for this knee-jerk adjustment with those fading Duke having that nail-biter versus Virginia Tech fresh in their minds.
The Spartans, despite being the No. 2 seed in the region, have had the easier path to the Elite Eight. Their last two opponents, LSU and Minnesota, are cut from similar cloths: big athletic teams that thrive on rebounds and second-chance buckets. Michigan State was able to force bad shots, box out, and limit their extra looks at the basket.
However, Duke is a different monster. It doesn’t need second-chance points because it’s extremely efficient on offense. The Blue Devils shot better than 55 percent from the field against a Hokies defense ranked among the best in the country and are hitting half of their attempts in the tournament heading into the Elite Eight. That includes a 37.5-percent clip from 3-point range after making only 30 percent of their shots from deep on the season.
You’ve got to get stops versus Duke, and MSU isn’t the best at forcing turnovers. On the year, Izzo’s defense created just 10.1 turnovers per game – ninth fewest in the country – and have just 20 total forced turnovers through three NCAA games. On the other side of the floor, Michigan State has looked careless at times – 20 turnovers versus Minnesota – and no team transforms those errors into points like Duke.
The Cam Reddish injury is obviously another reason why this spread is trending downward, and his status for Sunday will likely be another late decision once he tests his knee in warmup. If you’re still on the fence about this game, wait and see if anything leaks out closer to tipoff. But for the purposes of this preview, I’ve got to pick a side. That’s going to be Duke -1.5.
PREDICTION: Duke -1.5
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