The MLB season was on the brink of cancellation, but it appears we will have games played in the 2020 season, with the revised Opening Day July 23. The delay to the season means that MLB betting fans will have a condensed 60-game schedule to dive into, with each team playing 40 divisional games and 20 interleague games against their geographical equal.
It was already one of the craziest MLB offseasons imaginable for the Houston Astros — and that was before the coronavirus pandemic even took over! But with a fresh season, and Houston's sign-stealing scandal (hopefully) behind them, we turn our attention to the MLB odds for regular-season win totals.
Andrew Caley may not have a trash can-banging system in place to know what’s coming, but he slides into the MLB betting odds headfirst and gives his best Over/Under win total predictions for the American League West.
AL WEST REGULAR SEASON WIN TOTALS
| Team | New 2020 Win Total | Original 2020 Win Total | Odds To Win AL West |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 35.5 | 94.5 | -170 |
| Oakland Athletics | 33.5 | 89 | +250 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 31.5 | 85.5 | +650 |
| Texas Rangers | 29.5 | 79.5 | +1,500 |
| Seattle Mariners | 25.5 | 67.5 | +5,000 |
HOUSTON ASTROS – O/U 35.5
Where to even begin with the Astros? The banging scandal has rocked baseball to its core. The GM and head coach are fired. The team was fined and lost a bunch of draft picks. But the general consensus is that it wasn’t enough. Everyone hates the players and owner for being so contrite and many believe their World Series title should be stripped. The point is, this story isn’t going away anytime soon.
That said, the Astros may be the team that will benefit the most from a delayed (and shortened season): the prolonged absence and the drama between the MLB and the Player's Association changed the narrative of the MLB season from focusing on the Astros, while the games being played with no fans saves the players from what was surely going to be an intense amount of heckling.
Also, the fallout of the scandal was most likely going to weigh down the Astros over a 162-game season, but it's much easier for a team full of veterans and All-Stars to brush aside the controversy and focus on a 60-game sprint.
The late start to the season also means star pitcher Justin Verlander should be back in action after recovering from groin surgery in March and a lat injury. He said recently that he was healthy, but new manager Dusty Baker still had questions about his endurance heading into the season. With the loss of superstar pitcher Gerrit Cole to the Yankees, plus the uncertainty of what a 37-year-old Verlander's productivity will be out of the gate, there's a lot of uncertainty for the starting rotation beyond Zack Greinke.
Houston still has a dynamite roster and a solid bullpen, but with questions in the rotation and a target on their back, I'm inclined to lean slightly Under in 2020.
Pick: Under 35.5
LOS ANGELES ANGELS – O/U 31.5
Every year I pick the Angels to go Over their win total, and every year they disappoint. But I just want Mike Trout in the postseason and the Halos are usually tasked with a modest number. And here we are again... but this year might be a little different. The Angels brought in Joe Maddon to be their new manager, they signed postseason hero Anthony Rendon away from the Nationals, and it sounds like two-way star Shohei Ohtani is healthy. If they can quality starts out of him, that’s a huge plus. But the Angels also bolstered their rotation depth by bringing in Julio Teheran and Dylan Bundy, who I think has the potential to be an impact starter now that he’s out of Baltimore.
Trout has some protection in the lineup, the starting rotation has some depth and the bullpen has some arms — this is the year. I know it.
Pick: Over 31.5
OAKLAND ATHLETICS – O/U 33.5
The A’s just continue to surprise. I went into last season thinking there was no way they could repeat their 97-win performance from 2018, and they went out and won exactly 97 games again (for reference, that would equal about 36 wins in a 60-game season).
Matt Olson, Matt Chapman and Marcus Semien anchor a solid lineup. The A’s play fantastic defense and the rotation, led by Mike Fiers and getting back Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas, feeds into that defense perfectly.
In a short 60-game season, pitching and defense is not a luxury — it's a must. Oakland's bullpen is also lethal, and as they check all the boxes I'm looking for in this wacky season, I’m giving the A’s the benefit of the doubt in 2020.
Pick: Over 33.5
SEATTLE MARINERS – O/U 25.5
After a hot start to the 2019 campaign, the Mariners went into full-on tank mode. The M’s ended the season with 67 wins, but 18 of those wins came before May 1.
Offensively, Seattle ranked second-to-last in batting average. On the mound, they ranked 23rd in team ERA, and I'd expect more of the same in 2020. This is Year 2 of the Mariners rebuild, and while a shortened season means every team truly is in playoff contention, Seattle still has a lack of top-end talent and will likely still give a lot of time to their top prospects.
Kyle Seager is now Seattle's elder statesman, with Felix Hernandez gone, but expect him, Dee Gordon and Mitch Haniger all to be shopped this season. The rotation is OK, but not nearly good enough to get Over this number.
Pick: Under 25.5
TEXAS RANGERS – O/U 29.5
The Rangers are another intriguing team heading into 2020. A shortened, delayed season is not an ideal way to christen a new ballpark, but Texas is looking to build off a surprising 2019 in Chris Woodward’s first year as manager, where they won 78 games.
This offseason they went out and acquired starting pitching — lots of it. They added Corey Kluber, who had his 2019 season derailed by injuries, but when healthy is one of the American League's premier starters, as well as Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles. Those three join incumbent Rangers Mike Minor and Lance Lynn, giving the Rangers a solid five-man rotation.
Offensively the Rangers will have a healthy Joey Gallo back, which means lots of towering home runs can be expected, while they also added veterans Robinson Chirinos and Todd Frazier. This number feels pretty spot on, but Kluber and the upgraded rotation is worth an extra win or two.
Pick: Over 29.5
UNDERSTANDING MLB SEASON WIN TOTALS
Sportsbooks will post projected win totals for every MLB team before the season starts. The numbers are projections for the amount of wins a specific team will get in a given year set accurately enough in hopes of getting an even amount of dollars wagered on both the Over and the Under. These markets open before Spring Training, close when the regular season begins and don’t cash out until the season is over. So, be prepared to ride out your investment.
MLB season win total odds will usually look like this:
- Houston Astros Over/Under 35.5
This means you can bet the Astros to have more than or less than 35.5 wins. So, 36 or more wins and you cash an Over bet and 35 or fewer wins and your Under is the winner.
Most of these odds are juiced to -110 each way, meaning you would need to bet $110 to win $100. If adjustments are made, due to players changing teams, getting hurt or liability (amount wagered on a certain side), then usually the number would change, for example: the Astros move from 35.5 to 36.5.
HOW TO BET MLB REGULAR SEASON WIN TOTALS
There are many strategies to consider when making an MLB regular-season win total bet. First and foremost, you're looking for value. Has a sportsbook overvalued a player acquisition or undervalued the strength of a division? Just because the Astros won 107 games last year (the equivalent of almost 40 wins in a 60-game season), doesn’t necessarily mean they'll go Over their win total of 35.5 this year. With a little bit of research, you can find some real value in the numbers.
Also, consider the length of your investment. As mentioned before, MLB regular season win totals need to be locked in prior to the Opening Day of the MLB season and don’t cash out until the season ends. That’s a long time to wait out a bet. If you are betting the Athletics to go Over 33.5 wins, but they stumble out the gates, you’ve got a season-long sweat on your hands.
Finally, shop around. Different sportsbooks will offer slightly different totals. If you like the Rangers to improve but don’t love the number at 29.5, maybe another book doesn’t have as big of a liability on Texas and has a number of 28.5, or even 28.
Find more great betting strategies in our How to Bet section and join the conversation with thousands of serious basketball bettors in our MLB Betting Forum.
WHERE CAN I BET ON AL WEST WIN TOTAL ODDS?
Most online books and casinos offer futures bets on MLB regular-season win totals, even with this condensed season. Check out the best sportsbooks available where you live.
