The Los Angeles Dodgers (26-13) are on a roll, having won 14 of their last 16 games. They’ll look to keep the good vibes going with a three-game weekend series against the San Diego Padres (20-20), who have prevailed in six of their last eight.
According to MLB odds, the Dodgers are favored at -180 on the moneyline, while the total has been set at 8. Find out why I'm backing Los Angeles' vaunted bats in our Dodgers vs. Padres predictions and MLB picks for Friday, May 10.
Dodgers vs Padres prediction
My best bet
Dodgers team total Over 4.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Michael King was terrific for the New York Yankees over the last two years, rocking a 2.29 ERA in 2022 and a 2.75 ERA in 2023. The right-hander mostly operated out of the pen, with 83 of his 92 appearances coming in relief.
The San Diego Padres liked what they saw enough to transition him to the starting rotation, but so far, the experiment has been a bumpy ride. King enters tonight's NL West showdown with the Los Angeles Dodgers sporting a 4.29 ERA, 4.75 xERA, and 5.71 FIP.
King has primarily struggled with his command (11.4% walk rate), although there are some other concerns. As is normal for a former reliever moving into the rotation, his velocity is down. After averaging 96.5 mph on his fastball in 2022 and 94.8 in 2023, King is down to 93.5 this season.
The four-seamer is his most commonly thrown pitch and it’s been smacked for a .571 xSLG and .395 xWOBA, while King's sinker is used 21.9% of the time and has been blasted for a .759 xSLG and .475 xWOBA.
That’s going to be a major problem when he toes the rubber against a lethal Dodgers lineup that digs in at the plate and leads the majors with a 138 wRC+ and a .362 wOBA against right-handed pitching. They’re 13 points clear of the second-place team in wRC+ and .017 points ahead in wOBA.
LA’s team total is set at 4.5, but they’ve averaged 6.2 runs in the last nine games while eclipsing this number six times. Give me LA’s team total Over as tonight’s best bet.
Dodgers vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Dodgers team total Over 5.5
Dodgers -1.5
Michael King Over 2.5 walks
Tyler Glasnow Over 5.5 strikeouts
King has walked 4.5 batters per nine innings and issued three walks in his previous start against the Dodgers on March 21 — a game in which LA plated 11 runs.
On the flip side, Tyler Glasnow has been superb for his new team, boasting a 2.43 xERA and 2.46 FIP. The tall righty is averaging 9.6 punchouts per game across his last five and has struck out 7+ batters in five of his last six.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dodgers vs Padres odds
Dodgers vs Padres live odds
Dodgers vs Padres opening odds
- Run line: Los Angeles -1.5 (+100) | San Diego +1.5 (-120)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles -165 | San Diego +140
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-115)
Dodgers vs Padres spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Dodgers have hit the run line in 51 of their last 86 games.
- Both teams have played to the Over this season. The Dodgers are 21-17 O/U while the Padres are 21-18 O/U.
- The Over is 4-1 in both Glasnow and King's last five starts.
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Dodgers vs Padres trend
The Dodgers have scored at least five runs in nine of the last 10 meetings against the Padres. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Padres
Dodgers vs Padres game info
| Location: | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Friday, 5-10-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNLA, SDPA |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Tyler Glasnow (6-1, 2.70 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Michael King (3-3, 4.29 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Padres latest injuries
Dodgers vs Padres weather
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