The US Open always promises high drama and tough draws.
Defending champ Jannik Sinner is the U.S. Open odds favorite, but Carlos Alcaraz is lurking while Americans Ben Shelton and Taylor Fritz are ready to shake things up in the Big Apple.
Who’s primed for a deep 2025 US Open run and who’s best left on the sidelines?
Find out with my Men's Singles preview for the 2025 US Open, beginning Sunday, August 24.
US Open men's odds
| Player |  |
|---|---|
| Jannik Sinner | +105 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | +200 |
| Novak Djokovic | +1400 |
| Jack Draper | +2200 |
| Ben Shelton | +2200 |
| Alexander Zverev | +2500 |
| Taylor Fritz | +3000 |
| Daniil Medvedev | +8000 |
| Jakub Mensik | +10000 |
| Lorenzo Musetti | +10000 |
Odds as of 8-21.
US Open men's favorites
Who's hot
Jannik Sinner (+120 at FanDuel)
Jannik Sinner enters the US Open as the betting favorite, and for good reason. A precise technician, he’s claimed the last three hardcourt slams with a 12-1 hard-court record this season and is 37-2 over the past 52 weeks.
Sinner opens against unseeded Czech Vit Kopriva, with potential early round challenges from Alexei Popyrin, Tommy Paul, and Alexander Bublik. He’ll likely see Jack Draper in the quarters and Alexander Zverev in the semifinals.
Carlos Alcaraz (+200 at DraftKings)
Sinner is the technician; No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz is the tactician. The Cincinnati titlist is a showman who thrives on big stages, a former US Open champion, and the only man to beat Sinner on hard courts this year.
Alcaraz faces big-serving Reilly Opelka in the opener, then likely navigates a winnable section toward a quarterfinal with Ben Shelton and a potential semifinal showdown with Novak Djokovic.
Ben Shelton (+2200 at FanDuel)
National Bank Open champion Ben Shelton has relied on his booming serve and improving backhand slice to reach the quarters or better in all three US Open lead-up events.
Shelton opens against a qualifier and has a clear path to a Round of 16 clash with Jiri Lehecka or former finalist Casper Ruud, then a potential quarterfinal showdown with Alcaraz, and possibly Djokovic or Fritz in the semifinals.
Who's not
Frances Tiafoe (+8000 at bet365)
Frances Tiafoe often shines at the US Open, but he struggles elsewhere, posting just a 12-9 hardcourt record this season without one semifinal on hard courts.
He’ll need some of his US Open magic because his path is daunting; he opens against tricky Yoshihito Nishioka and would need to overcome Holger Rune and Djokovic to reach a quarterfinal showdown with Fritz.
US Open men's sleepers
Players to watch
Jack Draper (+2200 at DraftKings)
Indian Wells champion Jack Draper and his booming forehand have three Top 10 hard-court wins this season, but he hasn’t played singles since his second round Wimbledon loss to Marin Cilic.
Draper should start well against a qualifier, with Gabriel Diallo a potential third-round test and probably Lorenzo Musetti in the Round of 16. Sinner looms in the quarterfinals, with Zverev his likely semifinal opponent.
Taylor Fritz (+2700 at FanDuel)
Taylor Fritz reached at least the Round of 16 in all three US Open warm-up events. His booming serve and forehand carried him to the 2024 final, and his draw sets up another deep run.
Fritz opens with Wild Card Emilio Nava. He would then likely meet Brandon Nakashima in the third round, then either Jakub Mensik or Tomas Machac in the Round of 16, with a potential quarterfinal showdown against Djokovic and maybe Alcaraz in the semis.
Alexander Zverev (+2500 at DraftKings)
Australian Open finalist Alexander Zverev reached the semifinals in both Masters warm-ups. His serve and two-handed backhand have fueled four straight US Open quarterfinals, and he seems mentally ready for another deep run.
Zverev opens with Alejandro Tabilo. He’s good until a potential Round of 16 showdown with Andrey Rublev, then likely Karen Khachanov or Alex de Minaur in the quarters, and a possible semifinal clash with Sinner.
Long shots to avoid
Novak Djokovic (+1200 at bet365)
Four-time US Open champion Novak Djokovic has reached the semifinals in all three 2025 Grand Slams and is chasing No. 25. But his draw is tough.
I’m avoiding Joker this year. He opens against rising American Learner Tien, likely meets Alex Michelson in the third round, Rune or Tiafoe in the fourth, with potentially Fritz in the quarterfinals and Alcaraz in the final four.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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