|
Change
|
Team
|
W-L-T
(ATS)
|
Power Rating
|
Team Comments
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| 1 |
4 |
 3 |
 |
5-3-0
(5-3-0)
|
-7.0 |
New England
The Patriots defense didn't get the headlines in New England's blowout at Wembley, but it was the best game they've played all year - a very positive sign moving forward. |
| 2 |
3 |
1 |
 |
6-2-0
(5-3-0)
|
-7.0 |
San Francisco
If Alex Smith plays like he did Monday Night (18-19-232-3-0) for the rest of the year, the 49ers are my favorites to win the Super Bowl. |
| 3 |
1 |
 2 |
 |
5-3-0
(3-5-0)
|
-6.5 |
Green Bay
Without Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson, the Packers' vertical passing game was non-existent against the Jags. Aaron Rodgers completed only one pass longer than 20 yards. |
| 4 |
2 |
2 |
 |
6-2-0
(4-3-1)
|
-6.5 |
N.Y. Giants
The Giants' quick-strike offense leads the NFL in big gainers this year with 29 passing plays and eight rushing plays of 20 yards or longer. |
| 5 |
5 |
 |
 |
7-0-0
(5-2-0)
|
-6.0 |
Atlanta
The Falcons are 50-21 since head coach Mike Smith and QB Matt Ryan arrived in Atlanta, but their 0-3 playoff record has kept this team relatively under the radar. |
| 6 |
6 |
|
 |
6-1-0
(5-2-0)
|
-5.5 |
Houston
Note that the Texans' power rating did not drop during their bye week, but Atlanta jumped them in my rankings following a strong showing at Philly. |
| 7 |
9 |
2 |
 |
4-3-0
(4-3-0)
|
-4.0 |
Denver
If the Broncos play defense like they did last Sunday - holding the potent Saints to a single touchdown for the first 57-plus minutes of action - they're legit Super Bowl contenders. |
| 8 |
7 |
1 |
 |
6-1-0
(4-3-0)
|
-3.5 |
Chicago
We've seen complete firs-half no-shows from the Bears three times already this year - at Green Bay, at Jacksonville, and at home against Carolina. They still won two out of three. |
| 9 |
11 |
2 |
 |
4-3-0
(3-4-0)
|
-3.5 |
Pittsburgh
The Steelers offense was clicking on all cylinders against Washington. First six drives: three touchdowns, two field goals and one punt. |
| 10 |
8 |
2 |
 |
3-4-0
(3-4-0)
|
-2.0 |
Dallas
Tony Romo's record as a starting quarterback in November is a truly impressive 19-2 SU but the Cowboys' spread at Atlanta this week is noticeably short. |
| 11 |
13 |
2 |
 |
3-4-0
(3-4-0)
|
-2.0 |
Detroit
Matthew Stafford became the only QB in the NFL this year to solve the Seahawks defense, as the Lions converted 12 out of 16 third downs to beat Seattle. |
| 12 |
12 |
|
 |
5-2-0
(2-5-0)
|
-1.5 |
Baltimore
The Ravens only win on the road this year came in a game where they didn't reach the end zone against the NFL's worst team (K.C.), escaping with a three-point victory. |
| 13 |
14 |
1 |
 |
4-4-0
(5-3-0)
|
-1.0 |
Seattle
Seattle went 3-2 against quality foes through the first half of the season (Patriots, Packers, 49ers, Cowboys and Lions). Their second-half slate eases considerably. |
| 14 |
19 |
5 |
 |
4-3-0
(4-3-0)
|
0.0 |
Miami
Last week, Miami recovered an onside kick, blocked a punt, blocked a field goal and returned a kickoff for 57 yards. Special teams coordinator Darren Rizzi deserves a raise. |
| 15 |
10 |
5 |
 |
3-4-0
(1-5-1)
|
0.0 |
Philadelphia
The Eagles' defensive superstars were no-shows against Atlanta. Cornerbacks Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Nnamdi Asomugha both got burned deep. |
| 16 |
15 |
1 |
 |
2-5-0
(3-4-0)
|
1.0 |
New Orleans
The Saints' faint hopes for a mid-season turnaround were extinguished completely last week, with another chance for a national TV embarrassment upcoming Monday Night. |
| 17 |
16 |
1 |
 |
3-4-0
(3-4-0)
|
1.0 |
San Diego
Before we write off the Chargers completely, let's not forget that since 2007, after November 1, San Diego is 32-12 SU. Only the Patriots (35-9) have been better. |
| 18 |
18 |
|
 |
3-5-0
(4-4-0)
|
1.0 |
Washington
Six starters missed Sunday's loss at Pittsburgh and the Redskins receivers dropped 10 passes, - more than their previous seven games combined. |
| 19 |
24 |
5 |
 |
3-4-0
(5-2-0)
|
1.5 |
Tampa Bay
The Bucs' plus-31 point differential is by far the best mark of any team in the NFL that currently has a losing record. Football's Pythagorean Theorem says they're on the rise. |
| 20 |
17 |
3 |
 |
5-3-0
(3-4-1)
|
2.0 |
Minnesota
The Vikings have been badly outplayed for three straight weeks and now face a daunting trip to Seattle to face a hungry Seahawks team off back-to-back losses. |
| 21 |
22 |
1 |
 |
3-4-0
(2-4-1)
|
3.0 |
Cincinnati
Ugly looking first-half advanced metrics: The Bengals have been out-rushed and out-passed on a yards-per-play basis and their second-half schedule is brutal. |
| 22 |
21 |
1 |
 |
3-5-0
(5-3-0)
|
3.5 |
N.Y. Jets
The Jets' team QB rating this year is 73.1, behind the likes of Jacksonville, Arizona and Miami. Only Cleveland and K.C. have been worse throwing the football. |
| 23 |
20 |
3 |
 |
4-4-0
(3-4-1)
|
4.0 |
Arizona
Well, the positive momentum from Arizona's 4-0 start didn't last long. You can't win in the NFL without a QB or an offensive line. |
| 24 |
25 |
1 |
 |
3-4-0
(3-4-0)
|
4.0 |
Buffalo
The only teams not to score at least 35 points against the woeful Bills defense this year are the offensively challenged Chiefs, Browns and Cardinals. |
| 25 |
26 |
1 |
 |
1-6-0
(3-4-0)
|
4.0 |
Carolina
Steve Smith's quote following Carolina's fourth consecutive loss by five points or less: "Not heartbreaking. Tiresome, monotonous, a few guys in here are perturbed." |
| 26 |
23 |
3 |
 |
3-5-0
(5-3-0)
|
4.0 |
St. Louis
In back-to-back weeks before the bye, the Rams defense got absolutely torched by Tom Brady (QB rating 131.1) and Aaron Rodgers (QB rating 132.2). |
| 27 |
28 |
1 |
 |
2-6-0
(4-3-1)
|
4.5 |
Cleveland
The Browns are the only team in the NFL to have two wins in the last two years while scoring a single touchdown or less after their 7-6 win vs. San Diego. |
| 28 |
29 |
1 |
 |
4-3-0
(4-3-0)
|
5.0 |
Indianapolis
Andrew Luck has played seven career NFL games. In three of them, he's engineered a come-from-behind scoring drive in the fourth quarter or OT for the win. |
| 29 |
30 |
1 |
 |
3-4-0
(3-4-0)
|
5.0 |
Oakland
Carson Palmer didn't take a sack again last week, and he's yet to throw more than one interception in a game all season. |
| 30 |
27 |
3 |
 |
3-5-0
(3-5-0)
|
5.0 |
Tennessee
The Titans had only one three and out and punted only three times against Indy, yet they scored only 13 points. Matt Hasselbeck: "I don't really understand how we lost the game." |
| 31 |
32 |
1 |
 |
1-6-0
(4-3-0)
|
7.5 |
Jacksonville
The Jags have been competitive in each of their last two losses, a step in the right direction. But bad third quarters are killing them: Six drives, five three and outs. |
| 32 |
31 |
1 |
 |
1-6-0
(2-5-0)
|
7.5 |
Kansas City
When we're into November and a team has yet to hold a lead in regulation at any point in any game for the entire season, they've got to rank dead last. |
Power Ratings compute offensive and defensive statistics into one number for each team, while accounting for factors like recent performances and strength of schedule. Power Ratings can be used as a baseline for relative spread index to compare current or future match-ups between two teams. The relative spread does not account for non-statistical factors like home-field advantage, recent injuries, game time decisions, rivalries, publicity, and weather.