Houston Texans

Picks

After revamping the o-line, Houston still allowed C.J. Stroud to suffer three sacks, get hit seven times, and feel the heat on 41% of his dropbacks in a loss to the L.A. Rams in Week 1. Adding injury to insult (and more injury, with guard Ed Ingram still out) was the loss of starting center Jake Andrews to a high ankle sprain. That porous pass protection faces a Tampa Bay defense just dying to hit a quarterback. Under Todd Bowles, the Buccaneers have a very aggressive pass rush that blitzes at a high rate. This feels like a lower-scoring slog with the Bucs blitzers making game-changing plays for the underdog.

It’s a favorable setup for Schultz—an indoor home game against a Bucs defense that struggled to contain Kyle Pitts in Week 1. Schultz tied for the team lead in targets last week, despite playing just 54% of snaps and running a route on 60% of dropbacks. The Texans’ 3-WR sets lacked any real pass-catching punch, and new OC Nick Caley may be forced to adjust, which should mean more involvement for Schultz. There’s also a clear path to increased snaps with fellow tight end Cade Stover out for the foreseeable future due to a fractured foot after playing 57% of snaps in Week 1. I’m on Schultz at +240 and would play it down to +210.

Schultz went 3/28/0 on five targets in Week 1, but with more routes and limited WR competition, he’s in line for a bump. I’m projecting six to seven targets, four to five catches, and 45+ receiving yards. The Bucs also gave up seven catches on eight targets to Kyle Pitts last week.