Atlanta @ Miami picks

Waldrep is running pure luck right now: .220 BABIP, 90% strand rate, and a 0.71 ERA. That’s not sustainable — and the market is finally catching up. His outs recorded line opened the season around 15.5, has ticked up to 17.5, and today saw another move up. Time to fade the inflation. Yes, there’s a Marlins tax, but this is still a great sell-high spot. Waldrep got 21 outs on just 87 pitches vs. the White Sox, but he’s due for command issues to resurface — he walked 50 batters in 91 Triple-A innings this year. If you can’t get 17.5, I’d still take Under 16.5 at even money or better.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sean Murphy in the 94th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Sean Murphy's 14% Barrel% (a reliable standard to evaluate power) is in the 87th percentile this year.. Ranking in the 86th percentile, the hardest ball Sean Murphy has made contact with this year reached a maximum exit velocity of 114.4 mph -- a reliable indication of underlying power skill.. Sean Murphy has hit 32.7 homers per 600 plate appearances this year, checking in at the 92nd percentile for power.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Jurickson Profar ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jurickson Profar is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game.. Jurickson Profar has made substantial gains with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 8.2% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the past week.. In the last week's worth of games, Jurickson Profar's 66.7% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 34.7%.. With a 24.400 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year , Jurickson Profar grades out in the 82nd percentile for power.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heriberto Hernandez in the 81st percentile when it comes to his home run skill.. Heriberto Hernandez will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.. In the past 7 days, Heriberto Hernandez's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 10.3% up to 18.2%.. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Heriberto Hernandez ranks in the 85th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year at 25.400.. Heriberto Hernandez has hit 24 long-balls per 600 plate appearances this year, placing in the 82nd percentile for power.

Jakob Marsee is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.. Hitting from the opposite that Hurston Waldrep throws from, Jakob Marsee will have the upper hand today.. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Jakob Marsee will hold that advantage in today's game.. Jakob Marsee's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better in recent games, going from 70.7% on the season to 76.9% in the past week's worth of games.. Jakob Marsee has been hot lately, putting up a a 14.3% Barrel% (an advanced stat to evaluate power) in the last two weeks.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Matt Olson ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Matt Olson is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Batting from the opposite that Sandy Alcantara throws from, Matt Olson will have the upper hand today.. This season, Matt Olson has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 96.9 mph compared to last year's 94 mph mark.. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (24.9) implies that Matt Olson has had bad variance on his side this year with his 19.4 actual HR/600.

Ronald Acuna Jr. projects as the 5th-best hitter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ronald Acuna Jr. is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Ronald Acuna Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 6th-shallowest CF fences today.. Ronald Acuna Jr. has made notable gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 9.5% rate last season to 16.5% this season.. Ronald Acuna Jr. has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 97.6-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 92.9-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Derek Hill as the 20th-best batter in MLB when assessing his BABIP ability.. The 6th-shallowest CF fences in Major League Baseball are found in LoanDepot Park.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Derek Hill will hold that advantage today.. Derek Hill has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 91.9-mph average to last season's 88.3-mph average.. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.272) provides evidence that Derek Hill has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season with his .228 actual batting average.

Shane Livensparger profiles as a Huge Hitters Umpire and is expected to be behind the plate today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks LoanDepot Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in MLB for walks.. Playing on the road typically reduces pitcher metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Hurston Waldrep in today's game.. Hurston Waldrep has been one of the luckiest mound aces in the game on balls in play this year with a .214 BABIP and figures to see that luck normalize going forward.. The maximum exit velocity of any player on the Miami Marlins has been 117.4 mph this year, ranking them as the #8 offense in MLB by this stat.

When estimating his home run skill, Agustin Ramirez ranks in the 75th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Agustin Ramirez is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.. The 6th-shallowest CF fences in Major League Baseball are found in LoanDepot Park.. Agustin Ramirez will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats.. In terms of his batting average, Agustin Ramirez has had bad variance on his side this year. His .230 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .270.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Marcell Ozuna ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Marcell Ozuna is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game.. Using Statcast data, Marcell Ozuna grades out in the 86th percentile for hitting ability via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .351.. With a 24.600 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year , Marcell Ozuna is positioned in the 76th percentile for power.. With a 1.35 K/BB rate this year, Marcell Ozuna has shown favorable plate discipline, checking in at the 93rd percentile.