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[Politics] Topic: A few things to keep in mind when looking at polls |
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canovsp |
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#1 Posted: 7/18/2012 10:45:12 PM Polls of “Likely Voters” are more reliable than polls of “Registered
Voters.” Don’t pay attention to the popular vote. Obama will probably
net millions of votes over Romney in California.
Romney will probably net millions of votes over Obama in Texas. The goal is for the candidate to get
one more vote than his opponent in swing states like Florida
and Ohio. If
he does then he gets the entire state. There are only two states that
candidates can split: Nebraska and Maine. Because of their
low numbers of electoral votes it probably wouldn’t matter if they did split.
Never look at one poll. Real Clear Politics does a good job
of tracking numerous polls and taking the average of them all. They use the
following: Quinnipiac, Rasmussen, NBC, Franklin & Marshall, Purple
Strategies, etc.
Undecided voters more often than not go to the challenger.
If the incumbent is already at 50% or more then he is good to go in that state.
If he is between 48% or 49% then he is probably OK. If the incumbent is at 46%
or 47% then it is too close to call. If he is at 45% or lower then the
incumbent is in trouble. |
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canovsp |
RSI |
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#2 Posted: 7/18/2012 10:46:14 PM Here are the numbers in swings states based on Real Clear
Politics. These are the states we need to pay attention to.
Florida:
Obama 45% Romney 45%
Ohio:
Obama 47% Romney 43%
Virginia:
Obama 46% Romney 45%
North Carolina:
Obama 47% Romney 46%
Colorado:
Obama 47% Romney 43%
Iowa:
Obama 46% Romney 45%
Michigan:
Obama 47% Romney 45%
Most states aren’t listed. The party that won those unlisted
states in 2008 will “hold serve” in 2012 except Indiana. Experts say Indiana will go to Romney in 2012. Another determining factor is watching trends from month to
month. |
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jay10 |
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#3 Posted: 7/18/2012 10:49:21 PM  |
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No_Contest |
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#4 Posted: 7/18/2012 10:58:24 PM
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dl36 |
RSI  |
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#5 Posted: 7/19/2012 4:18:35 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by jay10: Seems like you do want to believe in the cultist,,,,
he does not seem to be the only one...
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cd329 |
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#6 Posted: 7/19/2012 8:27:26 AM Didnt know we had an expert on polls on the site
Like i said before right wingers are Gods gifts to mankind, theres nothing they cant do  |
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Ktrain |
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#7 Posted: 7/19/2012 11:31:42 AM
Secondly, Covers knows that polls are irrelevant unless they benefit 14daroads point of view I can help support his argument in his postings.
If they don't support his argument then they are deemed irrelevant, a poor sample size, poor source of info, and unreliable by him and all his followers(espy, FRC, bowlslit etc)
That my friends, is how polls work on Covers. |
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Posted using a mobile device.quote |
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Ktrain |
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#8 Posted: 7/19/2012 11:32:23 AM |
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Posted using a mobile device.quote |
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SteelCash |
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#9 Posted: 7/19/2012 1:17:38 PM So Obama is going to be our president for another four years.
Great. |
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djbrow |
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#10 Posted: 7/19/2012 3:55:48 PM I posted on this subject pretty in-depth last week.
The following statement is not correct:
<<Undecided voters more often than not go to the challenger. >>
The rest is pretty much accurate, although real clear politics is not a poll in and of itself.
Zogby is the most preferred other than internal polling where the candidate can control the question. Often times, polls are done for the specific purpose of manipulating public opinion. |
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esplanade |
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#11 Posted: 7/19/2012 4:13:58 PM
Let's see a well respected Washington insider or djbrown
A guy with connections to politicians on both sides of the aisle or djbrown
The guy largely credited for getting Clinton a second term or someone with no confirmed accomplishments
person Morris says undecideds break strongly for the challenger
Unless you think some guy is going to wake up next week and decide, "you know what obama has been great, I'll vote for him"
You better warn the gallery, you shanked that one way left. Fore.
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TheGoldenGoose |
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#12 Posted: 7/19/2012 4:24:51 PM
 person Morris
The man with a bigger crooked mouth than person Cheney.
Now, THAT'S saying something! 
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djbrow |
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#13 Posted: 7/19/2012 4:31:18 PM
Yes, I am aware of the person Morris article that the original poster essentially copied and pasted (was it possible to think that the poster would have typed that on his own)?
Nate Silver is likely the most respected, non-baised source on polling. Here is a great article that discussed the subject with emperical data.
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TheGoldenGoose |
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#14 Posted: 7/19/2012 4:35:07 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by canovsp: Here are the numbers in swings states based on Real Clear
Politics. These are the states we need to pay attention to.
Florida:
Obama 45% Romney 45%
Ohio:
Obama 47% Romney 43%
Virginia:
Obama 46% Romney 45%
North Carolina:
Obama 47% Romney 46%
Colorado:
Obama 47% Romney 43%
Iowa:
Obama 46% Romney 45%
Michigan:
Obama 47% Romney 45%
Most states aren’t listed. The party that won those unlisted
states in 2008 will “hold serve” in 2012 except Indiana. Experts say Indiana will go to Romney in 2012. Another determining factor is watching trends from month to
month.
I agree that these currently look like accurate numbers. The key word here is "currently". Romney needs to virtually sweep the board with those seven key States. If Obama takes only four of those seven States, Romney is going to be in big trouble. Once again, Florida and Ohio will decide The Presidency. Romney HAS to tap Portman as his VP. It's the only roadmap that works.
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SarasotaSlim |
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#15 Posted: 7/19/2012 4:37:48 PM Who did Bill Clinton first contacted to gauge whether he should come out with the truth when news of the Monica Lewinsky affair broke....?
person Morris...........
Clinton asked Morris to conduct polls on how he should handle the crisis..... |
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TheGoldenGoose |
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#16 Posted: 7/19/2012 4:40:42 PM
It wasn't an affair... it was a blowjob.
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Stiln |
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#17 Posted: 7/19/2012 4:49:24 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by djbrow:
Yes, I am aware of the person Morris article that the original poster essentially copied and pasted (was it possible to think that the poster would have typed that on his own)?
Nate Silver is likely the most respected, non-baised source on polling. Here is a great article that discussed the subject with emperical data.
Djbrow is actually on point here again..
Nate Silver is arguably the most well respected statistician right now.
He's also written books about saber-metricians concerning baseball utilizing different baseball stats as well as formulating his own stats to prove different theories regarding steroids, the definition of clutch hitting, ERA vs WHIP, etc...
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dl36 |
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#18 Posted: 7/19/2012 8:18:18 PM
It is almost like they speak a different language trying to desperately Spin things to accommodate their conclusion
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TheGoldenGoose |
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#19 Posted: 7/19/2012 8:28:47 PM
I honestly don't know one single right-winger who is thrilled about Romney being the Republican candidate. They will hold their nose and vote for him, but they are far from thrilled with Mitt.
And you can probably say they exact same thing about the Democrats and their man.
Where does this leave everybody? It's a sad state of affairs.
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