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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Capping help
jpthesharp send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
jpthesharp
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#1
Posted: 2/6/2013 12:04:28 AM
Ok so I need some help filling the holes in my strategy.
I've gone 80-88-5 in the last three weeks of basketball and haven't had more then maybe 2 winning days. I flat bet due to the fact I'm trying to hone my strategy. So here is what I do.

1. I calculate my own line a day a head of the game by taking the differences between the season averages of the teams defensive and offensive. Then I calculate the last 5 games differences offensive and defensive. Then I calculate the matchup home vs away offensive and defensive.

2. I then create a line based on the negative and positive differences.

3. I look at the history between the two teams in their recent games at the current venue they are playing at.

4. I then go and read about the matchup online from the perspective of the writers and analyst. 

5. I then check different forums and tally the picks from different service plays and select the numerous different plays based on the highest tallied picks and my line I created.

6. I also check twitter look at different capers and take into consideration the leans of capers wise guys and sharps I respect. 

So where can I fill some holes?
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bulichm send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
bulichm
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#2
Posted: 2/6/2013 7:12:40 PM
I've been down a lot of these same roads. I have backed off of NBA a couple of times just to re-evaluate. It seemed that a lot of times using your first 3 criteria that my lines were falling into reasonable findings as compared to the line put out by the books. Probably because we are all using the same numbers.  The afterwards using the last of your regime I saw everyone was just as confused as me.

But today while I was pondering this situation, I came across your post. So one of the things that I was wondering about I decided to check.

A team like MIA winning nearly 70% of their games and and 86% at home only has a 22-23 ats record and a 12-10 home ats record. Seems as if they should be doing a bit better. Well they are the only team I checked today and now might have another angle to look at.

They were 3-7 ats at home vs team with winning ats records on the road and as dogs, as well as 7-2 ats vs teams with losing ats records and as a dog. 3 games did not fit the criteria.

I will be looking into this a bit more.
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jpthesharp send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
jpthesharp
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#3
Posted: 2/7/2013 10:16:52 PM
Thanks for the reply. I've been practicing reverse line movement watches and its been doing well. Finding the lines that don't move even though there is heavy money on one team or moves a point or two and heavy money on the opposite team. That's just what's been working the last couple days.
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jpthesharp send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
jpthesharp
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#4
Posted: 2/7/2013 10:19:44 PM
My question is why do they do better against certain teams with a specific ATS record to me that doesn't matter too much due to the fact it's just a stat and people are humans. I need to find the inside info I need to find the ball Boy who plays soccer with lebrons son, or the ex-gf that knows a player has a coke habit and does a lot when he goes to a certain city I need that kind of info but stats help too!! 
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Sharkysden
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Sharkysden
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#5
Posted: 2/11/2013 2:46:02 PM

Stop at #3, then just follow the lines and lock in your picks.  
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