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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: 2012-13 BOWL GAMES SYSTEM
gratefulbets
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#1
Posted: 12/14/2012 3:36:04 PM
Here are my bowl system values and strategies for picking games. Because your lines may be different, I'm giving you the reasoning for the net values so you may make your own net values and decisions. This is only my 7th year working with the bowl games, and this particular system has about 3 seasons of history, with some minor changes each year. Last year I posted most of my plays which did very well. But it's a short history, so proceed with caution!!

There are 2 categories of value, "A" and "B". The value of each category is measured against the line. If the net value is +3 to +6.5, in at least the "A" net value, without the "B" category having any value for the opposing team, then that is a basic play which should cover a minimum of 65% in that category.
If the net value is +7 to +9.5, in at least the"A" net value, without the "B" category having any value for the opposing team, then that is a play which should cover a minimum of 73% in that category. 
If the net value is +10 or more, in at least the"A" net value, without the "B" category having any value for the opposing team, then that is a play which should cover a minimum of 80% in that category. 

Having net value for the same team in both "A" and "B" :
If the net value is +3 to +6.5, or greater, in both the"A" net value and the "B" net value, for the same team, then that is a play which should cover a minimum of 75% in that category.
As above:
+7 to +9.5 should yield 85%
+10, or moreshould yield 95%

Here is the list of games. The games that have both net values "A" and "B" for the same team, and with the minimum values described above, in those colors, are also colored in this list. 

Important: my pick defaults to the lowest value of either category: ie., UT +10...+4 falls in to the category of +3 to +6.5.








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#2
Posted: 12/14/2012 3:36:21 PM
team...line..value A..value B...NET VALUE: A......B 

AZ......-9.5......7...........13..........NV +1.5..AZ +3.5

UT......-10......20..........14..........UT +10...+4

BYU....-3........7...........10..........BYU +4....+7

C.Fl...-7........10..............6...........C.Fl +3....BALL +1

ULLaf -6......14.............18..........ULL +8...+12

Boise...-5.......9...............0.......Boise +4...Wash +5

Fres...-12.5...22............19........Fres +9.5...+6.5

C.Mi..+5.5...14.............0........C.Mi +19.5..+5.5

SJSt...-7.......19............12.......SJSt +12......+5

Cin....-7.........1............17........Duke +6....Cin +10

UCLA..pk.....9............-9.........UCLA +8.5...Bay +8.5

ULMon..-7....24..........10........UlMon +17...+3

Rut....+2.5.....11............1........Rut +13.5...+3.5

TxTc..-12.5...23............2........TxTc +12.5...Mn +10.5

Rice.....+1........9...........13.......Rice +10...+12

AzSt.....?.......10............4........

WVa...-4.........2............6........Syr +2....WVa +2

OrSt..-2..........6.............3........OrSt +4...+1

TCU..-2.5.......4............0.........TCU +1.5...MiSt +2.5

Van....-7........13..........16.........Van +6...+9

USC...-10.......6............5..........GaTc +4...+5

IaSt....pk........9............5...........IaSt +8.5...+4.5

LSU...-3.5.....2............3...........Clem +1.5...+0.5

OkSt...-16.5...30.........26..........OkSt +13.5...+9.5

NW.....+2.......7............8...........NW +9...+10

Mi.......+5.......2............2...........Mi +7...+7

Ga......-10.....10..........21...........Ga +0...+11

Stan....-6.5.....5............7............Wi +1.5...Stan +0.5

FSU....-13.5...11........11............NIl +2.5...+2.5

Fl........-13.5...24........20............Fl +10.5...+6.5

Or........-9.......11..........2.............Or +2...KsSt +7

TxAM..-4.5....5...........8.............TxAM +0.5...+3.5

Ms........-3.5....1..........-7.............Pitt +2.5...+3.5

Kent......+4.....3........-15.............Kent +7...ArSt +11

Al.........-9.5....7...........6.............ND +2.5...+3.5

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#3
Posted: 12/14/2012 4:19:21 PM
ELIMINATE

Kent......+4.....3........-15.............Kent +7...ArSt +11
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#4
Posted: 12/14/2012 4:51:41 PM
AZ......-9.5......7...........13..........NV +1.5..AZ +3.5

Should read  NV +2.5
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nghia1973
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#5
Posted: 12/14/2012 9:18:14 PM
What are the different colors mean?
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#6
Posted: 12/14/2012 11:41:48 PM
Thanks gratefulbets, hope the system do well like again ...
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#7
Posted: 12/14/2012 11:48:55 PM
Gratefulbets, Thanks for sharing and BOL 
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#8
Posted: 12/15/2012 3:36:36 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nghia1973:

What are the different colors mean?

What do all the words say in the post? 
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#9
Posted: 12/15/2012 9:53:50 AM
Thanks for sharing!
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#10
Posted: 12/15/2012 8:48:41 PM
WIN...
UT......-10
One down, and many more to go...I just flew back from MGM Vegas where I made my Bowl wagers...
UlLaf -5.5
Rice +1
OkSt -17
NW +2.5
Mi +5.5

3 team parlay: pays 6-1
Rice +1
OkSt -17
NW +2.5

CMi +175
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#11
Posted: 12/16/2012 12:28:51 AM
hi gratefulbets I'm very interested in your picks!!I I read in 1 of your other threads you were doing nfl and I was wondering if you still are? Its cool you flew from California to vegas to place bets. Was wondering how much you win on average in bowl season since you make the trip I'm guessing it has to be a decent profit!! Thanks for taking the time to pass on you learned and hard working wisdom!! Much respect & appreciation
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#12
Posted: 12/17/2012 1:07:51 PM
Will the suspensions of 3 Michigan players change your position on Michigan?

Thanks.

Good Luck.
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#13
Posted: 12/17/2012 6:05:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gratefulbets:

WIN...
UT......-10
One down, and many more to go...I just flew back from MGM Vegas where I made my Bowl wagers...
UlLaf -5.5
Rice +1
OkSt -17
NW +2.5
Mi +5.5

3 team parlay: pays 6-1
Rice +1
OkSt -17
NW +2.5

CMi +175
Question, are these the only plays you will be playing? Or all official plays in blue, red and green?
Thanks and look forward to a great bowl season!
CG
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#14
Posted: 12/19/2012 12:26:04 AM


timgopack...yes, I'm doing NFL, I just don't post it as I'm not so confident of my results, as I'm still modifying the stats. My most recent version did quite well last week, 6-1, so here is what is picked for this week. I'm only wagering very small on these, whereas I wagered $1k/game on individual bowl picks. I have learned to be patient!!!! 

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#15
Posted: 12/19/2012 12:30:59 AM
ATL
GB
CAR
MIA
CIN
NE
IND
WAS
DAL
STL
DEN

Luckydan...of the 3, the punter looks to be the only real loss...

CG2A...yes, I'm just playing big on those five of the 80% + group...I like the blue group's chances and I will be laying very small amounts for entertainment only, through my off shore acct., but the value is in playing those higher % picks.



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#16
Posted: 12/20/2012 3:29:10 PM
thanks for the picks
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#17
Posted: 12/20/2012 4:58:55 PM
I see that you are played CMi on the ML. If you get them +5 or more, would they still be a blue level selection?  I assume (trouble, I know) that they present more value to you on the ML vs the spread. Correct?

Thanks for posting.

Good Luck.
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#18
Posted: 12/20/2012 11:43:21 PM
I never did finsh the AzSt. / Navy game NET VALUES:

AzSt.....-14.5...10.....4.......Navy +4.5...AzSt. +0.5



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#19
Posted: 12/20/2012 11:48:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gratefulbets:

I never did finsh the AzSt. / Navy game NET VALUES:

AzSt.....-14.5...10.....4.......Navy +4.5...AzSt. +0.5

Should read:

AzSt.....-14.5...10.....4.......Navy +4.5...Navy +10.5



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#20
Posted: 12/21/2012 1:24:58 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gratefulbets:


Screwed up that post ... here's the correct value:

AzSt.....-14.5.....10......14.........Navy +4.5...+0.5

Other corrections:
Kent......+4.....3........-15.............Kent +7...ArSt +11
Rice.....+1........9...........13.......Rice +10...+14
Ga......-10.....12..........21...........Ga +2...+11
Ms........-3.5....7..........-7...........Ms +3.5...Pitt+10.5


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#21
Posted: 12/21/2012 1:37:50 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Luckydan:

I see that you are played CMi on the ML. If you get them +5 or more, would they still be a blue level selection?  I assume (trouble, I know) that they present more value to you on the ML vs the spread. Correct?

Thanks for posting.

Good Luck.

CMi currently falls into the +3 to +6.5 (blue) category. They would not change unless CMi became +7 dog, which would bump CMI up into the next category: red.
The ML dog play was just a small play.
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#22
Posted: 12/21/2012 10:14:04 AM
another 4th quarter gem    2 for 2       should be a good xmas again this year
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#23
Posted: 12/21/2012 11:33:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gratefulbets:

ATL
GB
CAR
MIA
CIN
NE
IND
WAS
DAL
STL
DEN

Luckydan...of the 3, the punter looks to be the only real loss...

CG2A...yes, I'm just playing big on those five of the 80% + group...I like the blue group's chances and I will be laying very small amounts for entertainment only, through my off shore acct., but the value is in playing those higher % picks.



NFL Plays ATS? also for NFL do you have levels as you have for bowl games?

Thanks

CG

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#24
Posted: 12/22/2012 12:54:24 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CG2A:

NFL Plays ATS? also for NFL do you have levels as you have for bowl games?

Thanks

CG


Sorry, I forgot to include the lines....but unless my pick has a -1 point increase on FAVS, or a -1 point  decrease on dog lines, from the opening lines, it should be ok to use the current line.  Let me know if there are any games that need to be reconsidered.

No, NFL system is currently a little different from the Bowls so I don't have the different categories listed. 
BTW, you (anyone) can reconfigure the Bowl categories to suit your own levels of play. Those categories are just an arbitrary basis that I used to judge the strength of the system. The higher the value, the higher win %, which is what I wanted to confirm. The next step would be to look at each whole number as a category, and see where the best values are. Unfortunately, with only 70 games from 2010 and 2011, there isn't enough games to sample to that degree. However, there are some games that are just 0.5 to 1.0 point from qualifying as a different level play, and if the line changes then that game could be moved into a different category. But then again, you could just move it into another category as you see fit. I am just being cautious for a few seasons to see how consistent it is. 
The other aspect of this system is that group "A" is a little more accurate in predicting than group "B". And as I have already explained, when both A & B groups are used together, it is slightly better than group "A", alone. Look at the values of the first 4 bowl games. The team listed with the positive net value for "A" only have won all 4 games, so far. Last year if you played every game that had a positive value in category "A" only, no matter how small, and completely ignoring all values in category "B", that record was 25-9. So the point is that I'm really not sure where the sweet spot is exactly, but I'm getting closer. 

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#25
Posted: 12/22/2012 6:33:16 AM
against u on atlanta today...i always go with the home dog on prime time games....will be there at the game rooting on my horrible lions
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