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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Help with building a strategy
orhane send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
orhane
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#1
Posted: 12/2/2012 10:26:14 PM
Hi everyone I am backtesting a strategy on US Sports and need to develop a database. My problem is that I do it manually for now and it took me like ages to capture the data of the current NBA Season.

Well all the Data I need is here in the Covers Website. Is there any chance someone can help me getting the information in an easier way?

To give a bit of inside to my system. It depends on the variation of 3 things:
Consensus Picks
Expert Picks
10% Picks
Line Movement

So far the system has great results.
I put the data in a spreadsheet but only by hand.
200 Matches so far and an overall record of:

ATS
79 Won
67 Lost
8,05 Profit
Yield: 5,51%

Over/Under:
124 Won
91 Lost
26,81 Profit
Yield: 12,47%

So if I can backtest it long enough maybe there is something we can get from this.

Kind regards and thank you for your help
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thirdperson
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thirdperson
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#2
Posted: 12/5/2012 7:58:14 PM
Homework affects success as with other things in life.  Yields for totals ATS seem more impressive than for sides ATS.  200 may already be a big enough sample size to prove system works in the long term.  If you still want more analysis, perhaps some volunteers might emerge to help if you explain what research you need and how to do it?
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orhane
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#3
Posted: 12/5/2012 8:28:16 PM
Thanks for your answer,

my System is based on the percentage difference between the consensus and experts opinion here on covers.com.

i created a rating system based on the opinion in general and for the one of the experts. depending on the standard deviation of last season's results, i took only a game in account if the difference between "over and under" or "home and away" picks are differing enough.

it sounds a bit complicated. but it works well with a small excel formula. now what i want to do is, back test this strategy long enough and transfer it to other sports like hockey, football, college baseball etc.

on friday for example the system generated these picks with an awesome 11-0 ATS and 6-5 on Totals.

Brooklyn NetsToronto Raptors Atlanta Hawks Boston Celtics New York Knicks Memphis Grizzlies Minnesota Timberwolves Oklahoma City Thunder Sacramento Kings Los Angeles Lakers 
4,0 186,0 Away Over
Phoenix Suns -2,5 198,5 Home Over
Cleveland Cavaliers -9,0 189,5 Away Over
Portland Trailblazers -5,0 192,0 Home Under
Washington Wizards -12,5 190,0 Home Over
Detroit Pistons -11,0 189,0 Home Over
Milwaukee Bucks -2,5 194,5 Home Under
Utah Jazz -9,0 202,5 Home Over
Indiana Pacers 1,5 188,5 Away Over
Denver Nuggets -5,0 204,5 Home Over
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orhane send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
orhane
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#4
Posted: 12/5/2012 8:28:55 PM
something went wrong with the message, i wanted to post the picks
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orhane send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
orhane
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#5
Posted: 12/19/2012 11:38:05 PM
The system works for the NCAA, but is not working so far for the NBA. If anyone knows how to get in touch with the guys from covers. I'd like to do some research on their database, but at the same time I can understand if they do not want to share their buisness with me.
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orhane send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
orhane
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#6
Posted: 12/19/2012 11:38:47 PM
http://nash13.blogabet.com/
for anyone interested, here i try to keep track with my picks.
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orhane send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
orhane
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#7
Posted: 12/22/2012 9:10:05 PM
13% yield on 183 NCAA Basketball picks so far.
The system does NOT work for NBA as far as i can see.
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orhane send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
orhane
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#8
Posted: 2/3/2013 1:33:35 AM
for further backtesting i have to get the data from covers. for now i do it with copy and paste.
the results for my system since beginning:
NBA
ATS: 334-288
TOT: 360-316
Total Profit: 48,36

NHL
ML: 60-31
Profit: 14,84

it would be nice to go further back in time. but this requests a lot of technical knowledge. and i don't have it, so i do it manually with copy and paste.

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