Posted: 3/19/2012 11:35:24 PM
So at this stage recognize there are plenty of imperfections - the key is to identify those imperfections and exploit them. Meaning if you took the best pitcher on paper everytime you would lose.
Therefore, you must pick your spots carefully and that is what the rest of this post is designed to help you do.
1. First step is get the opening lines - that's what you want to use.
2. Whenever you are doing a comparison you need to ensure it's apples to apples. Using the same evaluation methods for each pitcher.
3. You need to become familar with another site - Jeff sagarin he does rankings for a variety of sports and is associtiated with usa today - google him and find his site. Find his data on pitchers.
4. On your printout of the odds - look at who the pitcher is - find his name on sagarins list of pitchers - record the rank (first column), then record the number under MOB (men on Base), record the number under the Ricky. At this stage you have 3 numbers. The formula works like this (Rank + (Mob - Ricky) this will give you a composite rank of each pitcher. I spell it out for you but it's pretty quick math once you look at it.
5. At this stage you would have an opening line and two composite numbers. Let's say 130 opening line and composite numbers 59 - 45. The lower the number the better. However, you can't stop here.
6. To help me record results and interpret the data what i do is label the opening line in the following format: 110 - 120, is a SF small favorite; 125 - 140 is a MF moderate favorite; 145 - 160 Solid favorite (SOF); 165-195 Bigfavorite (BF) 200 or higher Huge Favorite (HF). The 130 i used above would be a MF.
7. What you want to do is record the opening line and the composite ranks of each pitcher and the result. For example: my spreadsheet would look like this:
59 - 45
This means the home team (right column) was a moderate favorite and the pitcher had a composite score of 45 the losing pitcher had a composite of 59.