Systems & Strategies
[Systems & Strategies] Topic: Winning Projection vs. Odds
Joined: Apr 2008
Posted: 11/19/2011 10:25:47 AM
I always wanted to now what let say odds +110 (or better say 2,1 in decimal odds) means for the books...
I used odds from lotto betting, since I can clearly understand (and calculate) what the chances are of winning a certain lotto bet.
For exampe, for the case of decimal odds (i like them better for computing purposes only):
when the projection is 100% win odds are 1
at 50% the odds are 1,961
at 14,18% the odds are 6,5
at 12,36% the odds are 7,5
at 2,56% the odds are 36
at 1,69% the odds are 54
from the above data point I have derived the formula:
ODDS (decimal) = 89,642 * (winning progection)^(-0,979)
This way I believe that ODDS +110 or 2,1 (decimal) means a winning projection of 46,3% (if we use the above formula).
This formula is as acurate as the data I used... Has anyone derived something similar? please comment.
To go a bit further, if we let say trust accuscore projections ( i do not), using the above formula win can estimate what the best odds would be for let say betting on DET or LA in today's NHL game.
DET is 45% (which translates to 2,14 decimal odds, while pinnacle gives 2,16) and LA is 55% (which translates to 1,81 decimal odds, while pinnacle gives only 1,77).
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