Systems & Strategies
[Systems & Strategies] Topic: Winning Projection vs. Odds
Joined: Apr 2008
Posted: 11/19/2011 10:25:47 AM
I always wanted to now what let say odds +110 (or better say 2,1 in decimal odds) means for the books...
I used odds from lotto betting, since I can clearly understand (and calculate) what the chances are of winning a certain lotto bet.
For exampe, for the case of decimal odds (i like them better for computing purposes only):
when the projection is 100% win odds are 1
at 50% the odds are 1,961
at 14,18% the odds are 6,5
at 12,36% the odds are 7,5
at 2,56% the odds are 36
at 1,69% the odds are 54
from the above data point I have derived the formula:
ODDS (decimal) = 89,642 * (winning progection)^(-0,979)
This way I believe that ODDS +110 or 2,1 (decimal) means a winning projection of 46,3% (if we use the above formula).
This formula is as acurate as the data I used... Has anyone derived something similar? please comment.
To go a bit further, if we let say trust accuscore projections ( i do not), using the above formula win can estimate what the best odds would be for let say betting on DET or LA in today's NHL game.
DET is 45% (which translates to 2,14 decimal odds, while pinnacle gives 2,16) and LA is 55% (which translates to 1,81 decimal odds, while pinnacle gives only 1,77).
Systems & Strategies
You have entered the forum as a GUEST.
to post or reply.
Terms of Service
Covers RSS feeds
Covers Facebook Page
Covers on Twitter
Copyright © 1995-
Activities offered by advertising links to other sites may be deemed an illegal activity in certain jurisdictions. Viewers are specifically warned that they should inquire into the legality of participating in any games and/or activities offered by such other sites. The owner of this website assumes no responsibility for the actions by and makes no representation or endorsement of any of these games and/or activities offered by the advertiser. As a condition of viewing this website viewers agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from the viewer’s participation in any of the games and/or activities offered by the advertiser.
!--*** Footer scoreboard ************ -->