| Author: |
[Systems & Strategies] Topic: RealityChecks SKATE UP NHL 11/12 |
|
RealityCheck1 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |

Rookie
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 529
Location: |
#1 Posted: 10/1/2011 5:01:02 PM Ok boys with the NHL dropping the puck on this upcoming Thursday, I'm going to be playing 5 strategies for the season. Some are my own fresh and untested but look good so I'm trying them. Some I will be playing at 2 books so I will keep the lines low to start. Lets keep the thread clean and make some $$$
1) Game Total Odd Parlay - Simply parlay all game totals odd everyday. I'm using $5 as my unit size. I will keep a running balance. I am hoping to win enough of the 3,4,5's to stay even and be able to hit a 10,11,12 to make the big bucks!
2) Score in the 1st 10 Minutes 1st Period - This is a take on Smitlers score in the 1st inning MLB strategy. Simply take the highest + money bet in each time slot and run a labby line. I'm using 5-5 to start with to see how it goes. Clear the line start a new one.
3) Grand Salami Follow - Simply follow the previous days grand salami result. Our first bet will be on Friday, if Thursday was a under then on Friday we will bet under. They have good streaks during the season, you will also have to watch your book as I have noticed books can be off by as much as 2 goals. So while one might win with a under the other could win with an over. The beauty is how we will run the labby lines on this. You will run labby lines for both over and under.
Over 7.5 7.5 Under 7.5 7.5
7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5
So on a win you stay on line 1, on a loss go to line 2, then win or lose go back to line 1. This is incase of a streak of over/under/over/under etc.
4) RPI >45 Strategy - Simply bet on a team that has a 45 rpi higher then the opponent. I will run labby lines for each conference. So for the Eastern conf if there is only 1 play I will use the first line. If there are 2 plays then start another line. Do the same for the Western conf. Using 7.5 7.5
5) 2 Game Road Trip - Simply bet on a team to win on at least a 2 game road trip. If they win the first game betting is over. If they are on a 3 or more game road trip you only bet on the first 2 games. So you will have a line for game 1 and a line for game 2. I will have these lines for each division, ATL, NE, SE, CEN, NW, PAC. Team we will omit for this are NJ, NYI, OTT, FLA, STL, COL, EDM, WIN.
Game 1 7.5 7.5
Game 2 7.5 7.5
I will post the OCT plays for the 2 game chase.... |
|
quote |
|
RealityCheck1 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |

Rookie
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 529
Location: |
#2 Posted: 10/1/2011 5:14:08 PM 2 Game Road Chase OCT Plays
Atlantic
PHI 6,8
PIT 6,8 17,18 29,Nov3
NYR 7,8
Northeast
BOS 12,15
MON 6,9
BUF 15,18
TOR 20,22 30,Nov 2
Southeast
WAS 27,29
TB 7,8 25,27
CAR 8,10 14,18
Central
DET 22,25
NAS 7,8 17,20 31,Nov3
CHI 18,20
CLB 21,22 27,29
Northwest
VAN 10,12
CAL 10,13
MIN 10,11 20,22
Pacific
SJ 21,22
ANA 25,27
PHO 8,10
LA 13,15 27,29
DAL 18,21
|
|
quote |
|
shaneel02 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |

Prospect
Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 37
Location: |
#3 Posted: 10/1/2011 5:36:18 PM nice! how did each system do last year? |
|
quote |
|
RealityCheck1 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |

Rookie
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 529
Location: |
#4 Posted: 10/1/2011 6:07:55 PM There are no records for last year. 1,2,3,4 are new for this year. 5 is based off the 3 game road trip in another thread, I put it to 2 games to get more plays. |
|
quote |
|
RealityCheck1 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |

Rookie
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 529
Location: |
#5 Posted: 10/4/2011 11:20:59 AM 5) For the 2 game road trip I am adding in a filter. If the road team faces one of the following teams that road trip will be considered a no play. These teams are simply too good at home. NAS, VAN, SJ, WAS, DAL, TB, MON, PHI. It has cut some of our plays for October. The new plays for October are as follows...
2 Game Road Chase OCT Plays
Atlantic
PHI 6,8
PIT 17,18
NYR 7,8
Northeast
BOS 12,15
MON 6,9
TOR 30,Nov 2
Southeast
TB 7,8
CAR 14,18
Central
NAS 7,8 31,Nov3
CHI 18,20
CLB 21,22 27,29
Northwest
MIN 10,11
Pacific
SJ 21,22
ANA 25,27
DAL 18,21
|
|
quote |
|
|
|
robwalton |
RSI  View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |

Rookie
Joined: Jul 2009
Posts: 712
Location: Ontario |
#6 Posted: 10/4/2011 2:43:26 PM RealityCheck, i really like your idea for the Odd parlay system, i do something similiar with baseball, betting odds. i checked last years hockey results and you would of had 26 winning parlays and one of them would of been a ten teamer, but you probably already know that. What about doing round robin parlays also?? Probably would increase your bankroll some more. Good luck this season using this system, my book excludes overtime for odd and even bets for hockey, if not i would be all over this with you |
|
quote |
|
RealityCheck1 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |

Rookie
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 529
Location: |
#7 Posted: 10/4/2011 4:46:12 PM Time to get a new book then. The big one hits once a year, so you've got to play every day. Hopefully this year we will hit a couple big ones. You have to be careful with the round robins cause somedays you end up with alot of even totals and the bankroll will take a decent hit. I'm going to keep a daily balance for those parlays. Thursday is coming soon... SKATE UP!!! |
|
quote |
|
RealityCheck1 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |

Rookie
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 529
Location: |
#8 Posted: 10/4/2011 4:49:11 PM I also think for strategy 4 the rpi one, we can do a double dip. By this I mean for each conference we will have a road labby line, a home labby line and I will do a labby line for both home and road combined. We will see what happens... |
|
quote |
|
oilcountry99 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |

Prospect
Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 382
Location: Ontario |
#9 Posted: 10/4/2011 10:04:41 PM Hey realitycheck how many units are you starting with for each of the 5 systems?
Best of luck this season! |
|
Posted using a mobile device.quote |
|
RealityCheck1 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |

Rookie
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 529
Location: |
#10 Posted: 10/6/2011 2:14:27 PM No base units for each system. Using 2 books and put aside $500 in each for NHL. |
|
quote |
|
RealityCheck1 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |

Rookie
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 529
Location: |
#11 Posted: 10/6/2011 2:29:37 PM On with the show.... Bets are
1) A 3 game parlay on game total odd. $5 (last year the lines were -220 now they are -265, hopefully it's just because of the opening day matchups and they will come down in the future)
2) Time of first score. No plus money lines here but will use the lowest - lines. So at 7 we have
PHI/BOS after 9 mins 30 seconds -105
and at 10 we have PIT/VAN after 9:30 -105 use a lab line...
3) No grnad salami play today as we wait for todays results and follow it tomorrw. The line for today is 16.5
4) No RPI plays for today.
5) 2 game road trip
Atlantic PHI Game #1
Northeast MON Game #1
Things I am also looking into are MON is .25 higher RPI then TOR and they are the dog, so a play on the puckline +1.5 would be good but odds are -310 kinda high... So just watching. We also have VAN at .25 RPI higher then PIT, they are the fav but the puckline at -1.5 +190 looks good being at home and with Crosby not playing. Will put a little on this and do a labby line for now to see the results. (About the RPI, I am using last years for now till a few weeks into the season. Yes teams have changed a bit but the nucleus is still there. Although I would take a few points off PIT with Crosby being out)
|
|
quote |
|
grecycle99 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |

Prospect
Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 146
Location: |
#12 Posted: 10/6/2011 6:25:39 PM Hey realitycheck
I'm in But just wondering what you mean by game total odd?
Thanks and GL |
|
quote |
|
RealityCheck1 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |

Rookie
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 529
Location: |
#13 Posted: 10/6/2011 7:00:01 PM Some books have you can bet that the total final score of the game will be an odd number like 3 or 5. It's frequent because once a game goes to OT/SO it will automatically end in an odd number. |
|
quote |
|
RealityCheck1 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |

Rookie
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 529
Location: |
#14 Posted: 10/7/2011 11:14:48 AM Results
1) Loss Balance -$5
2) 1-1
3 & 4) No action
5) Game #1 1-1 |
|
quote |
|
RealityCheck1 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |

Rookie
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 529
Location: |
#15 Posted: 10/7/2011 11:44:09 AM Todays plays
1) 6 game odd total parlay
2) Time of 1st score, games at 1pm ANA/BUF after 9:30 +100
7pm OTT/DET after 9:30 +110 8:30pm CHI/DAL after 9:30 +100
3) Grand Salami. Yesterday's line was 16.5 and the actual total was 12. Todays line is 33.5 so we start today and bet the UNDER (follow yesterdays winner which was under)
4) RPI play .. Western Conference DET 60 rpi higher then OTT So I will have a road labby line, a home labby line and to get more action I will have a combo labby line that plays on both home and road. So I have a bet on DET on the home line today and a bet on DET on the combo line today.
5) 2 game road trip
Atlantic NYR GM#1
Southeast TB GM#1
Central NAS GM#1
|
|
quote |
|
RealityCheck1 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |

Rookie
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 529
Location: |
#16 Posted: 10/7/2011 4:14:11 PM So the ones I was watching last night both lost, I will still watch these plays and try to find something. the 25 RPI is likely too low. I will gather stats and see what plays out...
MON R +1.5 -310 RPI 25 Loss
VAN H -1.5 +190 RPI 25 Loss
TB R +1.5 -330 RPI 26 pending
DET H -1.5 +130 RPI 60 pending |
|
quote |
|
RealityCheck1 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |

Rookie
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 529
Location: |
#17 Posted: 10/7/2011 11:16:40 PM Results
1) Loss Balance -$10
2) ANA/BUF after 9:30 +100 
OTT/DET after 9:30 +110 
CHI/DAL after 9:30 +100 
3) Grand Salami UNDER 
4) DET Road 
DET Combo 
5)
Atlantic NYR GM#1 
Southeast TB GM#1 
Central NAS GM#1 
Watching...
MON R +1.5 -310 RPI 25 Loss
VAN H -1.5 +190 RPI 25 Loss
TB R +1.5 -330 RPI 26 WIN
DET H -1.5 +130 RPI 60 WIN |
|
quote |
|
RealityCheck1 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |

Rookie
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 529
Location: |
#18 Posted: 10/8/2011 11:17:22 AM Nice day yesterday, lets keep it going today...
1) 13 game parlay $5
2) Time of first score, games today at 1,2,7,8,8:30,9,10,10:30 All bets will be after 9:30 mins of play
3) Grand Salami UNDER 73.5
4) RPI While no matchups have a 45 RPI or more, I am going to be playing
PHI R RPI 41 (EAST Conf. on the road line and combo line)
WAS H RPI 30 since CAR played last night
DET R RPI 37 (WEST Conf. on the road line and combo line)
5) 2 Game Road Trip
NYR Game #2 (this really shouldn't be a play since they are playing in Sweden, but playing it anyway. It should of said in the matchup it was overseas, but it didn't) |
|
quote |
|
RealityCheck1 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |

Rookie
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 529
Location: |
#19 Posted: 10/9/2011 8:18:45 AM Results
1) Loss Balance -$15
2) 1 NYR 
2 BUF 
7 CAR 
8 FLA 
8:30 DAL 
9 DET 
10 PIT 
10:30 PHX 
3) Grand Salami 
4) PHI road line 
WAS home line 
PHI combo line 
DET road line 
DET combo line 
5) NYR Game #2 
|
|
quote |
|
peter1988 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |

Prospect
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 383
Location: |
#20 Posted: 10/9/2011 11:06:34 AM 
Great solid day yesterday!
Could you explain to me #4 please? how do you compare two teams RPI to get 45? ESPN doesn't have the RPI's up yet, could you help me find them?
|
|
quote |
|
RealityCheck1 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |

Rookie
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 529
Location: |
#21 Posted: 10/9/2011 11:14:33 AM As it says in post #11 I'm using last years for now.
Yesteray PHI RPI .586 NJ RPI .545 Difference is 41 play was on PHI
As it turns out the 45 difference should be lowered proably to 35 or so as they are turning out to be winning plays. |
|
quote |
|
RealityCheck1 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |

Rookie
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 529
Location: |
#22 Posted: 10/9/2011 11:52:51 AM Todays plays
1) 2 game, game total odd parlay $5
2) Time of 1st score
5pm MON after 9:30 -105
9pm PIT after 9:30 -105
3) Grand Salami OVER 11
4) RPI PIT 52 (road line and combo line, and also setting up a puckline labby line and betting on it. SInce RPI's of 37,41 and 60 all coverd the puckline, 52 should as well)
5) 2 game road chase
MON Game #2 |
|
quote |
|
glefkb01 |
RSI  View Space | Friends | Playbook | |

Veteran
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 2019
Location: Michigan |
#23 Posted: 10/9/2011 7:04:54 PM Montreal... lookin good.
I dont know if I can play these kind of bets with my local.... only the pucklines... and parlays.
So I will only be able to follow #4 and #5 plays. |
|
quote |
|
glefkb01 |
RSI  View Space | Friends | Playbook | |

Veteran
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 2019
Location: Michigan |
#24 Posted: 10/9/2011 7:07:39 PM when you say for #1... you parlay the odds... you parlay the over or parlay all under? |
|
quote |
|
Binkledup |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |

Prospect
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 4
Location: |
#25 Posted: 10/9/2011 7:58:37 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by glefkb01:
when you say for #1... you parlay the odds... you parlay the over or parlay all under?
He's parlaying every game total being odd (ex. a score of 2-1 = 3). Not over or under.
|
|
quote |