2011 NCAAF Strategy

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: 2011 NCAAF Strategy
irage PM irage
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Posted: 8/31/2011 11:17:39 PM
Well here we go. Tomorrow is the first day of college football. I can't really give you an exact formula of how I determine which games are the best picks, but I am working on some numbers you can crunch to help narrow. Much of this is based on a relative power index, strength, opponent, player performance. Tread lightly these first few weeks.

0 - 0 - 0


Wisconsin -35
TCU -4.5
Ohio State -34
Western Michigan +13.5
RealityCheck1 PM RealityCheck1
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Posted: 9/1/2011 7:51:21 AM

Exact same as statfox picks....

CFB | 9/1/2011 8:00:00 PM Line: WISCONSIN -35.5 StatFox PowerLine: WISCONSIN  -43 Edge On: WISCONSIN (7.5)

irage PM irage
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Posted: 9/1/2011 10:33:36 AM
What the hell is statfox? What is the address?
irage PM irage
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Posted: 9/1/2011 10:53:58 AM
Holy garbage, dude that site is awesome. How have I never heard of it?
I use this site. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/


Sept 01 - WISCONSIN -35.5 (H39 "A" GAME) PENDING
Sept 02 - TCU -4.5 (V24 "A" GAME) PENDING
Sept 03 - OHIO STATE -34 (H49 "A" GAME) PENDING
Sept 03 - WESTERN MICHIGAN +13.5 (V39 "A" GAME) PENDING

Trigg PM Trigg
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Posted: 9/1/2011 6:24:58 PM

Just looking on statfox but where do you guys see their 'picks' or 'edge on'? 

Thanks.

irage PM irage
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Posted: 9/1/2011 6:27:39 PM
Yeah, I didn't see that either. I assumed that you have to login to get that.
Trigg PM Trigg
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Posted: 9/1/2011 6:29:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Trigg:

Just looking on statfox but where do you guys see their 'picks' or 'edge on'? 

Thanks.


Okay, nevermind, lol. Didn't realize you could click on those links in the above posting. Good stuff! GL everyone.

Trigg PM Trigg
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Posted: 9/1/2011 6:31:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by irage:

Yeah, I didn't see that either. I assumed that you have to login to get that.

Just posted about clicking on that guy's links. It works! Very good site though, been there before but I forgot all about it.

irage PM irage
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Posted: 9/1/2011 7:34:33 PM
I thought I was we savvy. I didn't know that either.
irage PM irage
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Posted: 9/1/2011 7:36:45 PM
I'm not sure if I should be worried or not. The fact that this site has the exact same picks, bothers me a little.

I have to admit this site has a ton of useful information.
irage PM irage
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Posted: 9/3/2011 8:21:28 PM
RPI SYSTEM

RPI Home: 40
RPI Visitor: 40

Started with H32 V39. First filters get adjusted to 40.

7 - 5 - 0

Sept 01 - WISCONSIN -35.5 (H39) LOSS
Sept 02 - TCU -4.5 (V24) LOSS
Sept 03 - WESTERN MICHIGAN +13.5 (V39) LOSS
Sept 03 - AUBURN -24 (H39) LOSS
Sept 03 - WISCONSIN -34.5 (H37) LOSS

Sept 03 - OHIO STATE -34 (H49) WIN
Sept 03 - STANFORD -30  (H49) WIN
Sept 03 - ALABAMA -39  (H38) WIN
Sept 03 - OHIO ST -34 (H49) WIN
Sept 03 - FLORIDA ST 30.5 (H35) WIN
Sept 03 - VIRGINIA TECH -26 (H??) WIN
Sept 03 - MISSISSIPPI ST -30 (V40) WIN

Sept 03 - OKLAHOMA ST -38 (H42)
Sept 03 - ARKANSAS -41 (H??)
irage PM irage
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Posted: 9/3/2011 10:23:54 PM
RPI SYSTEM

RPI Home: 38
RPI Visitor: 40

Filter: Sept 01 = H32 V39
Filter: Sept 03 = H38 V40


8 - 3 - 0

Sept 01 - WISCONSIN -35.5 (H39) LOSS
Sept 03 - WESTERN MICHIGAN +13.5 (V39) LOSS
Sept 03 - AUBURN -24 (H39) LOSS

Sept 03 - OHIO STATE -34 (H49) WIN
Sept 03 - STANFORD -30  (H49) WIN
Sept 03 - ALABAMA -39  (H38) WIN
Sept 03 - OHIO ST -34 (H49) WIN
Sept 03 - VIRGINIA TECH -26 (H53) WIN
Sept 03 - MISSISSIPPI ST -30 (V40) WIN
Sept 03 - ARKANSAS -41 (H54) WIN

Sept 03 - OKLAHOMA ST -38 (H42)
irage PM irage
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Posted: 9/3/2011 10:29:19 PM
RPI SYSTEM

RPI Home: 38
RPI Visitor: 40

Filter: Sept 01 = H32 V39
Filter: Sept 03 = H38 V40
Filter: Sept 03 = No lines greater than -35


5 - 1 - 0

Sept 03 - AUBURN -24 (H39) LOSS

Sept 03 - OHIO STATE -34 (H49) WIN
Sept 03 - STANFORD -30  (H49) WIN
Sept 03 - OHIO ST -34 (H49) WIN
Sept 03 - VIRGINIA TECH -26 (H53) WIN
Sept 03 - MISSISSIPPI ST -30 (V40) WIN
irage PM irage
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Posted: 9/4/2011 10:16:24 AM
RPI SYSTEM

RPI Home: 38
RPI Visitor: 40

Filter: Sept 01 = H32 V39
Filter: Sept 03 = H38 V40
Filter: Sept 03 = No lines greater than -35


4 - 1 - 0

Sept 03 - AUBURN -24 (H39) LOSS

Sept 03 - STANFORD -30  (H49) WIN
Sept 03 - OHIO ST -34 (H49) WIN
Sept 03 - VIRGINIA TECH -26 (H53) WIN
Sept 03 - MISSISSIPPI ST -30 (V40) WIN
cactusjack PM cactusjack
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Posted: 9/4/2011 10:41:41 AM

Where do you find the RPI for college football ?

irage PM irage
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Posted: 9/4/2011 3:37:01 PM
http://www.statfox.com/cfb/power/

Pretty cool, RealityCheck pointed it out to me. I figured I would try to apply similar filters that B2W did in MLB. Week one seemed to work OK, lets see where week to gets us.
glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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Posted: 9/4/2011 5:24:34 PM

Man, IRAGE   if we can get results like we did in MLB it will be a GREAT year.

My book is in jail, and so is my 3600....   on to a new book!!!

irage PM irage
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Posted: 9/5/2011 5:35:05 PM
WEEK 2 Looks

Stanford = V39
Florida = H??
Arkansas = V41 (-35.5)
Buffalo =
BookieCrusher88 PM BookieCrusher88
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Posted: 9/8/2011 1:10:01 AM
Would it be too late for me to jump into NCAAF irage? I was actually looking for Football threads but can't seem to find one.
BookieCrusher88 PM BookieCrusher88
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Posted: 9/8/2011 1:11:00 AM
I added you as a friend btw.
BookieCrusher88 PM BookieCrusher88
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Posted: 9/8/2011 1:17:45 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by irage:

WEEK 2 Looks

Stanford = V39
Florida = H??
Arkansas = V41 (-35.5)
Buffalo =


Is this 4-0?
irage PM irage
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Posted: 9/8/2011 1:35:28 AM
Feel free, kinda working out system right now. I want to narrow my game selection to just 1 or 2 games per week. Looking for the best chance of getting a win.

Stanford looks good, but Arkansas as a 35pt favorite is right on the edge. Arkansas could easily score 35, but they will take mercy on NM. NM is awful and they are going to get pounded. I think the bigger question is......will they score at all? The under looks more promising.

The other game I really like is N. Illinois. Great speed should give them the edge in this game.

I am also looking at USC vs Utah. First big PAC 12 game for the Utes and they are going to get an eye opener. With some of the best recruitment in the west USC will make a statement and welcome the Utes with a bust to the chops.
BookieCrusher88 PM BookieCrusher88
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Posted: 9/8/2011 4:03:24 AM
So the games are for Friday? I don't have any clue for NCAAF.
irage PM irage
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Posted: 9/8/2011 10:49:22 AM
Thursday I like Oklahoma St UNDER 66
Friday I like Missouri -7.5
Saturday I like Stanford, USC, N. Illinois, Arkansas I am still deciding on.
irage PM irage
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Posted: 9/8/2011 11:26:24 AM
Pass on Thursday game. I want to play something to much. Wait till Friday Missouri looking good. Don't play this game if the line drops below 7.

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