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MLB betting against the public

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Table 1: MLB and Betting Against the Public (2003-2008 Seasons)

Betting % Home Visitor Total
50 +103 units -54 units +49 units
40 +91 -30 +61
30 +64 +13 +77
25 +67 -46 +21
20 +20 -4 +16
15 +28 -5 +23
 
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Posted: #2
Source: Sports Insights
 
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Posted: #3
...so how do i bet with this info....
 
 
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Quote Originally Posted by gasman33:

...so how do i bet with this info....
 

 
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We do bet on home teams with public percentages between 15-50% and on road teams with percentages around 30%.
 
The most profitable after the records above looks like:
 
Betting the home team when public percentage is between 25% and 50%.
 
Source for getting the public percentages:   https://www.thespread.com/
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by calinreddog:

Table 1: MLB and Betting Against the Public (2003-2008 Seasons)

Betting % Home Visitor Total
50 +103 units -54 units +49 units
40 +91 -30 +61
30 +64 +13 +77
25 +67 -46 +21
20 +20 -4 +16
15 +28 -5 +23

 

so do we bet on....Home teams @ 50% public for the best win %?

 

post more & an example ...OK?

...thanks

 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by gasman33:

so do we bet on....Home teams @ 50% public for the best win %post more & an example ...OK?

...thanks

gas - example would be lets say Dodgers are playing at San Diego.    If public percentage on Dodgers is between 50% and 70%, we would take San Diego.   If the public percentage is 70% on San Diego we would take the Dogers.

 
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Posted: #8
www.bet tracker.com
 
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Posted: #9
Calin - Are you using covers for the public %.
 
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Posted: #10
I guess I meant will you be using Covers for your public % this year. Nice graph. Your graph covers 6 years, so I  guess that means that a home team that has a public opinion of 30% has won like 10 more games over the course of a year? Is that correct?
 
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Posted: #11
how did this do in other sports?
 
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by indiobear:

how did this do in other sports?
 

I have no idea, I only have the graph with results for baseball.

 

 
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Posted: #13
Okay......I got a few things.....
 
   I have come across this before and thought about it in depth and researched it......
 
Yes, it looks profitable and easy......"oh just bet against the public when the percentage is 25-50% and I will rake in the money"
 
WAIT....before you committ to this realize you are going to need a huge bankroll.....HUGE
You will be betting almost everygame on the night.....literally if there is 16 games you will be betting about 13 or 14 games easily....
 
The swings can be brutal and your going to need a huge bankroll to committ to this.....AND your going to need to committ to it....
 
For example can you stick out the -$2700 month of June to make it to the +$3800 month of Aug.???
 
   Just something to think about, sometimes these brought stats can look very appealing but are just a mirage to most normal gamblers.....
I think even guys who have a big bankroll of say 20K or so would be reluctant to do this because of the swings and committment you would have to make to this...
 
either way GL
 
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Quote Originally Posted by powerade:

Okay......I got a few things.....
 
   I have come across this before and thought about it in depth and researched it......
 
Yes, it looks profitable and easy......"oh just bet against the public when the percentage is 25-50% and I will rake in the money"
 
WAIT....before you committ to this realize you are going to need a huge bankroll.....HUGE
You will be betting almost everygame on the night.....literally if there is 16 games you will be betting about 13 or 14 games easily....
 
The swings can be brutal and your going to need a huge bankroll to committ to this.....AND your going to need to committ to it....
 
For example can you stick out the -$2700 month of June to make it to the +$3800 month of Aug.???
 
   Just something to think about, sometimes these brought stats can look very appealing but are just a mirage to most normal gamblers.....
I think even guys who have a big bankroll of say 20K or so would be reluctant to do this because of the swings and committment you would have to make to this...
 
either way GL

The profitable system is to play on home dogs with public percentages 25-50% and the most profitable is to play home teams when the percentage is 50%.

Now tell me, how can you find 13-14 games per night where the public preferes the road team? Generally the public preferes the home teams... and we must play home teams that are not prefered by the public (25-50%).

I am sure you won't find 13-14 games  / night where the public preferes the road team.

 
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the Yankess are road favs most of the time and win most of the time on the orad vs. subpar teams, over the long haul this system might work but you are asking to bet against the same team every single time when they are road favorites.
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by QuickDrawMcGraw:

 
 
the Yankess are road favs most of the time and win most of the time on the orad vs. subpar teams, over the long haul this system might work but you are asking to bet against the same team every single time when they are road favorites.

Assuming the Yankees or the Red Sox or the Cubs or any team you want are winning 60% of their road games, what do you think the odds will be? Don't you think the bookies will reflect that winning percentage in odds? And the public will move the moneyline making them more favourites than they really are and you can get value betting against them almost every time. Am I wrong?

 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by calinreddog:

The profitable system is to play on home dogs with public percentages 25-50% and the most profitable is to play home teams when the percentage is 50%.

Now tell me, how can you find 13-14 games per night where the public preferes the road team? Generally the public preferes the home teams... and we must play home teams that are not prefered by the public (25-50%).

I am sure you won't find 13-14 games  / night where the public preferes the road team.

didn't realize your just going to take home dogs.....but your still talking 4-6 games a night probably......even betting $100 a game your going to be betting 35 games a week or so.....

can you sustain a few bad weeks for the later good weeks thats all im saying......patience and a big bankroll are needed

 

 
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Posted: #18
I have checked through these a good bit through the past 4 years and it does appear a profit can be made.  It does make sense where everyone just loves to play favs.  I almost would stop betting the series as soon as the dog showed a profit. 
 
Being the first game of the series that is. I haven't went back though, but that has to make a bit stronger I would think.
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by QuickDrawMcGraw:

 
 
the Yankess are road favs most of the time and win most of the time on the orad vs. subpar teams, over the long haul this system might work but you are asking to bet against the same team every single time when they are road favorites.

The Yankees were big road favs last night, but the 1st game ended with a big profit for those who played the Orioles...

And that's just the 1st example...

 
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Posted: #20
i think you have to pick your spots in order to bet against the public other wise you would lose your shirt betting that way
 
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Posted: #21
are you only counting the Yanks/O's only game?
 
 
Reds 23% at home LOSS    -100
Padres 48% at home LOSS -130
Astros 34% at home LOSS -100
O's 23% at home WIN +180
 
looks like opening day losses to me -150....
 
  but hey, its your system so only count the winners and don't count the losses 
 
 
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by powerade:

are you only counting the Yanks/O's only game?
 
 
Reds 23% at home LOSS    -100
Padres 48% at home LOSS -130
Astros 34% at home LOSS -100
O's 23% at home WIN +180
 
looks like opening day losses to me -150....
  but hey, its your system so only count the winners and don't count the losses 
 

I was talking above that the most profitable is to bet only the home dogs with public percentages ranging from 25 to 50%. HOME DOGS, that means they got to have the + sign. This way the only play for last night was Orioles +180 WIN.

Yes the original system from Sport Insights is to play all home teams against the public and the profit is +109 for 6 seasons. It's no point to talk about records after 1 nighat and 4 games.

 
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Posted: #23
okay fine if your only doing dogs you have to include the Reds and that was a loss.....
 
i was just saying conveinent you only counted the win and not the losses.....
 
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Posted: #24
OK
 
 
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Posted: #25
Yeah, they are saying any dog at all, no matter how small they were.
 
I wouldn't even pay attention to the to the record till at least a month into the season.
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