wangichu, I totally agree with you.
After watching the NO/SA series, it appeared that NO (the younger,
quicker, more hungry team) had SA (the older & slower team) on the
ropes and would easily beat the champs. However, SA easily beat NO in
games 3, 4 & 6 by 11, 20 & 19.
IMO, Popavich will have a
game plan in store for LAL and SA will win game 3 convincingly just
like they did against NO. After watching games 1 & 2, it would
seem that LAL would be the pick but it's just too easy. SA are the
champs and have been in this situation too many times before and will
respond like they always do when their backs are against the
wall...with an impressive win, most likely by double digits. There's
no place like home. Do I think they win the series...that's a whole
other thread...I just want to concentrate on this game.
IMO SA
-5 is definitely the pick with 59% on the side and 79% on the ML.
Vegas got the money exactly the way they hoped when they set the line.
They know what they are doing and with such a high profile, nationally
televised, Sunday game, the public will be all over LAL. LAL where -7
& -6.5 at home...why isn't SA? SA beat LAL 107-92 and 103-91 at
home during the regular season. Granted, that was without Gasol, but
they still won. Remember, LAL (with Gasol) barely won 89-84 against a
SA team coming off a game 7 and sleeping on the plane. Fatigue is not
going to be a factor as much as home court will be.
IMO, the
difficult pick is the over/under. UTA -4 covered game 3 at home 104-99
and was way under the 215.5. It was a slow, defense minded game.
Someone posted on covers that Phil Jackson likes to concentrate on
defense away from home. I don't know if that's true but in game 3 at
UTA it was. SA knows that in order to beat LAL, they will have to play
much better defense then they did in LAL.
Game 1 over/under=196.5, total=174
Game 2 over/under=193.0, total=172
Game 3 over/under=192.0, total=???
Seems
like under would be the easy play...but in game 3 against NO, SA -6.5
beat them 110-99 with the over/under at 183. 54% are on the under, not
enough to raise any alarms so it could go either way.
IMO, I
think that SA/LAL both come out fast like game 3 against NO where both
teams scored 110 in the first half and 99 in the second. SA's defense
won games 3 & 4 in the second halves holding NO to 43 & 38
points where NO's is typically a 2nd half team, just like LAL. IMO,
the same happens here where SA simply outscores LAL and plays great
defense in the second half. The question is, will it be a 100-80 type
game or a 110-90+ type game.
With this analysis, I would take
SA-5 and leaning on over 192. Thoughts/ideas more than welcome. Let's
put our minds together and make some money tomorrow!!