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New Orleans at Utah (02/04/2008)

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Posted: #1

Away:  New Orleans [29-16-1 ATS]
Home:  Utah [25-23 ATS]

Game Time: 9:00 PM
Stadium: EnergySolutions Arena

Recent Meetings:
11/23/07 - NO 71 vs. UTA 99

Team Leaders:

New Orleans:
Points: Chris Paul (20.5)
Assists: Chris Paul (10.9)
Rebounds: Tyson Chandler (12.3)

Utah:
Points: Carlos Boozer (21.9)
Assists: Deron Williams (9.6)
Rebounds: Carlos Boozer (10.5)

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Consensus Betting Information

 
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Posted: #2
Alright after the Super Bowl, time to come back to reality and get back in the grind fellas....
 
Now in this game, Utah has played amazingly having won 12 out of their last 13 and 8 straight coming into this game. With the line only being at 3 and with this hot of a team, I would almost 95% of the time ride the hot team til the streak breaks.
 
But I think in this game, I will take the Hornets. Having lost 2 straight games and now having 2 days off before this game, I think NO is gonna come out firing and really played motivated ball to take this tough 2 game stretch they have @Utah and @Pho. Utah is coming off a east coast trip, albeit a short one but I like to go against teams' 1st game coming back from the other side of the coast. NO has the revenge factor in this game, and they've won 5 straight as dogs....
 
I think the game will be very closely played, will most likely buy a bucket here to +5, but even at +3, I still like NO since I feel like they may come on the right side of a close game...Utah home court factor is big, but if NO gets to the start I think it's going to get, I think the factor will be negated some...
 
NO +3 (probably a +2 buy = +5)
 
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Posted: #3
I dont know,,, i like jazz... home records shows it plus they have covered alot ats at home,,, a -3 is pretty much a pick em with this team. IF its close,, NO will foul and make it over the -3... unless there is still alot of time in the clock and Jazz lets them have an easy bucket.... ( which i have been burned 3 times this year by last sec shots )  20-3 at home,,, is the same record as boston at home,,, and the jazz are pretty good at home,, i dont know why,, maybe its the salt licking they do before the game but thats what im picking.
 
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Posted: #4
It is very hard to bet against the Jazz at home they are one of the few proven teams in the league no matter who they play... but i can see NO coming out to play but if they come out flat like they did against Sacramento they are in for a long game.
 
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Posted: #5
Thinking the over is a good play here as well, I expected the total to be closer to 210.
 
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Posted: #6
I'm liking the Over a bit more than picking a team in this one too.
 
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Posted: #7
Hornets +5.5 (5 units to win 3) vs. Jazz - both of these teams are top contenders in the West.  The Jazz have been on an amazing streak lately, and even won 2 road games on the East Coast before this home game.  New Orleans is coming off of 2 straight losses, one each home and away.  The Hornets this season are averaging 99.5 ppg (on the road it is 98.0) and are giving up 93.4 ppg (on the road it is 92.8).  The Jazz this season are averaging 105.1 ppg (at home 107.2) and are giving up 99.3 (but at home is 94.7).  The average margin of difference for those 4 categories is Jazz +3.5 points, and guess what the line is?  Yep, its Utah favored by 3.5.  Now I'll also factor in ppg by days rest... New Orleans has 2 days rest while Utah has 1 day rest.  On 2 DR the Hornets avg 109.5 and give up 91.2.  On 1 DR the Jazz avg 105.2 and give up 97.7.  If you factor those stats into the magin difference equation you now have the Hornets favored by 1.3 points.  I know thats a lot on your plate and its hard to follow (even for me reading it) but with all of that I can predict a final score of NO 99.8 to Utah 99.2.  New Orleans is the better FT shooting team and pulls down more boards.  Utah has the advantage with blocks and steals.  Some other trends to look at include:  NO on 2 DR is 4-0 ATS, on 2 DR with their opponent on 1 DR is 2-0 ATS.  Utah on 1 DR is 13-10 ATS, and on 1 DR with their opponent on 2 DR is 0-1 ATS.  NO playing away after a loss by 9 points is 2-1 ATS, and after a loss by 9 points with 2 DR is 1-0 ATS.  Like I said already, I just put a ton of crap on your plate.  I usually don't follow trends very much but since I had time to do a lot of research this morning I looked into the stats and this is what I came up with.  I bought the extra 2 points for insurance, like usual.
 
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Posted: #8
craziness i know, good luck trying to figure out what all that stuff meant in my post
 
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Posted: #9
Me 2cts
 
New Orleans has scored at least 103 points in eight of its last nine games, including the last five in a row. Meanwhile, Utah is averaging 105.3 ppg during its eight-game winning streak.
The Hornets have topped the total in three straight games and seven of the last nine. On the flip side, Utah has stayed low in five consecutive games. The under is also 11-5 in the last 16 series clashes between these squads, including 6-2 in the last eight in Utah.

UTAH and UNDER
 
 
 
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Posted: #10
I've been riding the Jazz at home all year long + some (since the rockets playoffs series last year), this one looks too easy to take with confidence, but then again so did -1.5 against the spurs last week...

Before the Knicks game when they were -13, I can't remember the last time the Jazz didn't cover at home, had to be at least 5 or 6 games.  This could be the one to fade the Jazz, but I can't see any reason why New Orleans is any different than any other team that leaves Utah with an ATS and SU loss.

JAZZ -3.5
 
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Posted: #11
jazz are 20-3 at home for a reason... They get teams up there at that altitude and just make life a living hell for them. Sloan has the other team runnin through screens all night. Sloan is a great coach, he uses his home court advantage probably better then any coach in the league. They aren't 20-3 at home by mistake, this is a very smart team that knows what the heck they are doing. Throw in the fact the are red hot right now and the Jazz are the pick here layin the small chalk
 
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Posted: #12
NO +4
 
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Posted: #13
 
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Posted: #14
NO. Under.
 
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Posted: #15
utah looking ahead to the Denver game ...... N.O +3.5/over
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by obes728:

Hornets +5.5 (5 units to win 3) vs. Jazz - both of these teams are top contenders in the West.  The Jazz have been on an amazing streak lately, and even won 2 road games on the East Coast before this home game.  New Orleans is coming off of 2 straight losses, one each home and away.  The Hornets this season are averaging 99.5 ppg (on the road it is 98.0) and are giving up 93.4 ppg (on the road it is 92.8).  The Jazz this season are averaging 105.1 ppg (at home 107.2) and are giving up 99.3 (but at home is 94.7).  The average margin of difference for those 4 categories is Jazz +3.5 points, and guess what the line is?  Yep, its Utah favored by 3.5.  Now I'll also factor in ppg by days rest... New Orleans has 2 days rest while Utah has 1 day rest.  On 2 DR the Hornets avg 109.5 and give up 91.2.  On 1 DR the Jazz avg 105.2 and give up 97.7.  If you factor those stats into the magin difference equation you now have the Hornets favored by 1.3 points.  I know thats a lot on your plate and its hard to follow (even for me reading it) but with all of that I can predict a final score of NO 99.8 to Utah 99.2.  New Orleans is the better FT shooting team and pulls down more boards.  Utah has the advantage with blocks and steals.  Some other trends to look at include:  NO on 2 DR is 4-0 ATS, on 2 DR with their opponent on 1 DR is 2-0 ATS.  Utah on 1 DR is 13-10 ATS, and on 1 DR with their opponent on 2 DR is 0-1 ATS.  NO playing away after a loss by 9 points is 2-1 ATS, and after a loss by 9 points with 2 DR is 1-0 ATS.  Like I said already, I just put a ton of crap on your plate.  I usually don't follow trends very much but since I had time to do a lot of research this morning I looked into the stats and this is what I came up with.  I bought the extra 2 points for insurance, like usual.


Holy shiiiittt Obes...did you fly in Stephen Hawking to help you with all that? 

Anyway...I did plow my way through all those stats and saw the trends and numbers that I was relying on tonight.  New Orleans actually has a better record against the spread on the road (15-6) than the Jazz do at home (15-8).  The Hornets are also a perfect 4-0 on 2 days of rest, which is what they have coming into this game.  So the Jazz are really good at home, but not that great ATS.  That's what matters to me.  Gonna ride the Hornets in this one.  Should be a great battle between two future legendary point guards with Williams and Paul.  I would stay away from the over/under simply because Hornets may try and slow it down and take the crowd out of it.

New Orleans +3.5
 
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Posted: #17
yeah, but its not looking good for these Hornets right now
 
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Posted: #18
Not particulary....but it's the NBA, everyone makes a run right?
 
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Posted: #19
Hornets are done-zo, my bad fellas
 
down 20 with 7 left in the 3rd
 
i know "everyone in the NBA makes a run" but seriously, they're done
 
 
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Posted: #20
You can stick a fork in 'um there done.
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