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Author: [Pro Football] Topic: Detroit at Minnesota (11/11/2012)
Covers send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#1
Posted: 11/6/2012 12:42:54 AM

Away:  Detroit [4-4 ATS]
Home:  Minnesota [3-5-1 ATS]

Game Time: 1:00 PM
Stadium: Mall of America Field at H.H.H. Metrodome

Recent Meetings:
09/30/12 - MIN 20 vs. DET 13

Team Leaders:

Detroit:
Passing: Matthew Stafford (2393)
Rushing: Mikel Leshoure (375)
Receiving: Calvin Johnson (767)

Minnesota:
Passing: Christian Ponder (1806)
Rushing: Adrian Peterson (957)
Receiving: Percy Harvin (677)

More:
Live Odds
In-Depth Matchup Information
Consensus Betting Information

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bouncer07
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#2
Posted: 11/6/2012 9:32:49 AM

Public pounding Lions. Vikings WR Percy Harvin  was using crutches after suffering what a badly sprained left ankle. You know that he will be limited or out for Sunday's game. Look for some Vikings running game with AP. Expect Lions to throw over Vikings. Lions should win this game.

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#3
Posted: 11/6/2012 5:26:04 PM
was on seattle big last week, lets do it again with the lions, no line at my book yet but i would love to get it at -2 or better

vikings

ponder

peterson
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#4
Posted: 11/7/2012 1:10:45 AM
I like the under here...
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#5
Posted: 11/7/2012 6:43:36 AM

Lions anything under 3.

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#6
Posted: 11/7/2012 1:37:49 PM

Last week I had some success backing this Lions team even though the public was on them. I think I may be doing the same this week. I took a long hard look at the matchup the last time these guys played at Ford Field and I came away with a few things.

First, the Lions were 1-2 going into that matchup and not clicking on offense  (while Minnesota was 3-0).  Clearly, you had a very confident Minnesota team.  Mathhew Stafford didn't look comfortable and was turning the ball over at an alarming rate.  While Christian Ponder was overachieving in his first 3 games.  The Lions defense was playing awful (both the secondary and d-line), and their special teams unit was absolutely dreadful. Well, it didn't come as a surprise that in their first matchup in week 4, Percy Harvin returned the opening kick for a touchdown. And it also wasn't surprising that the Lions allowed a 77-yard punt return. If you strip away those plays, the Lions defense actually did a solid job against the Vikings offense. Ponder was 16/26 for 102 yards and no touchdowns. And AP was held to 102 yards on 20 carries (not bad considering AP is probably one of the most explosive backs in the league). They held Minnesota's offense to 2 field goals and no touchdowns, but were still unable to come up with the W because of the special teams mistakes & Matt Stafford's funk in the redzone (they were 1-3). Stafford was actually 30/51 for 319 yards in the game (no TDs or INTs); they just couldn't get it done in the redzone!!

The Lions team of late has been playing quite different. In their last two games against Seattle and Jacksonville, the Lions are a very impressive 7-7 in the redzone (scoring 7 touchdowns). Stafford is clearly out of his funk and I think that can be attributed to him being more willing to target receivers other than Calvin Johnson.  Mikel Leshoure has also been more productive of late, and we all know a quarterback's best friend is a good running game. Their defense has also been playing much better. Against Seattle, they held one of the leagues top rushers to 105 yards (someone missed an assignment that allowed a 77 yard run for Lynch). If you take away the big play, this defense held Marshawn Lynch to 28 yards on 12 carries.

This Vikings team, on the other hand, has been heading in the opposite direction, and I attribute that mainly to opposing teams figuring out Christian Ponder's very simple passing game. The Vikings have not been able to stretch the field because their offense lacks a possesion receiver. Percy Harvin is great for the short passing game, but they have no real vertical passing game. Below are Christian Ponders numbers the last 3 weeks:

vs Arizona: 8/17 58 yards 1 TD 2 INTs

vs Tampa: 19/35 250 yards 1 TD 1 INT

at Seattle: 11/22 63 yards 0 TD 1 INT

Clearly Ponder hasn't been playing well since the first month of the year. I think its important to note that Percy Harvin, who said he is a longshot to play this week, is responsible for roughly 39% of Ponder's passing yards this season.  Anyone that follows this Minnesota Vikings team knows that Harvin isn't your average receiver.  He is their big play threat, and a regular part of the short passing game.  The guy even runs the ball pretty effectively when AP needs a breather.  Not to mention, he is obviously a threat on special teams as well (the Lions figured that out in week 4). 

I think you have to take the Lions even in this back-to-back road scenario.  The Lions have the better momentum and desperately need a win to get back to .500.  The Vikings on the other hand, will have to rely heavily on Adrian Peterson to carry this offense on Sunday.  I think Detroit plays like they did in week 4, but this time converts in the redzone.  I also think their defense plays even better than they did in week 4 as they will stack the box to shut down AP and force Ponder to beat them with his arm.  Without Percy Harvin, I'm sorry, but I just don't like his chances. 

I know its a public bet, but I'm sticking with the team that is trending in the right direction.

Detroit -3    

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#7
Posted: 11/7/2012 6:51:08 PM
Public bet...sharp bet...who cares?
The point is Detroit is a solid pick here.  Their running game could be just as good as the Vikings (could being the key word).  And when it comes to the aerial assault which team looks better right now?  Not too tough of a pick there.
The ML was just released at the book I have been frequenting for the better part of the last decade.  Detroit -135 is what I am going with.

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#8
Posted: 11/7/2012 8:06:15 PM
I made an error in my post.  Detroit is already at .500.  With a win they would leap frog the Vikings and get out of last place in the NFC north.
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#9
Posted: 11/7/2012 9:11:52 PM
Love the Lions here. Teams are headed in opposite directions. The last meeting the Vikings had two special team TDs. One by Harvin which wont be in this game. Lions were going through their issues in this earlier meeting. Lions is the play
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#10
Posted: 11/7/2012 11:33:19 PM

Under 47

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#11
Posted: 11/8/2012 9:44:32 AM

Minn like Ari had and enjoyed their  short lived media OMG  who would have thought this crap....it's over and Det will beat and  the last gasp of hope from the Vikes lungs.

I won't predict a score or an O/U but Det more than covers it.

 

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#12
Posted: 11/8/2012 11:07:35 PM

- With Harvin possibly out I don't think Minn has a chance in this game

- AP is playing awesome this year, but he can't do it alone

- Ponder is not even a factor, he has been absolute garbage as of late and with Harvin possibly not playing, thats only going to add to his stink

- DET is starting to click...take them to da bank

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#13
Posted: 11/9/2012 6:28:39 PM
the vikings wont win another game this year...its literally a 2 man team, with AD and Jared Allen, Harvin is out. Everyone else on that team is utterly worthless
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#14
Posted: 11/10/2012 1:05:07 PM

Looked at it from every angle, and I just can't see the Vikings winning this one. Double down on the run stuffing on a "formerly" dangerous A.P., and then what? You've got Ponder scrambling for his life...........

Loins -1

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#15
Posted: 11/11/2012 6:30:44 AM

pretty sure Percy Harvin is out

Ponder sucks 

AP only dude who is worth anything and he is banged up

Detroit all day , lets go Lions - whatever

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#16
Posted: 11/11/2012 6:53:49 AM
Stafford starting to click.. If the lions can make ponder beat them by shutting down AP, they win easily
Posted using a mobile device.
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#17
Posted: 11/11/2012 10:50:13 AM
det easy as long as special teams can tackle this time around
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#18
Posted: 11/11/2012 10:50:43 AM

The winning team has swept the two game series in the last 10 meetings. MIN getting points at home against a team they have already beat this year. DET smells fishy and I think the books know they will get a lot of action with DET as a fav making them look better than they are against a rival team.

MIN

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#19
Posted: 11/11/2012 12:09:04 PM
not sure if this a trap game?? anyhow i find it really hard not to take the lions.

lions -3...-162ml
gl
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#20
Posted: 11/11/2012 12:23:47 PM
Minnesota 
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#21
Posted: 11/11/2012 12:50:18 PM
Detroit -3  LARGE
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#22
Posted: 11/11/2012 2:32:24 PM
Detroit has no consistent offense this season. I don't think they are solid bet against anyone..
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