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Author: [College Football] Topic: Oregon at Kansas State (01/03/2013)
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#1
Posted: 12/2/2012 9:53:13 PM

Away:  Oregon [7-5 ATS]
Home:  Kansas State [9-2-1 ATS]

Game Time: 8:30 PM
Stadium: University of Phoenix Stadium

Recent Meetings:
N/A

Team Leaders:

Oregon:
Passing: Marcus Mariota (2511)
Rushing: Kenjon Barner (1624)
Receiving: Josh Huff (467)

Kansas State:
Passing: Collin Klein (2490)
Rushing: John Hubert (892)
Receiving: Chris Harper (786)

More:
Live Odds
In-Depth Matchup Information
Consensus Betting Information

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#2
Posted: 12/3/2012 12:51:58 PM
blow out, Oregon by 21
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#3
Posted: 12/6/2012 2:47:48 PM
i'll take some of that ksu action. like for them to take oregon out of their rhythm and have some long sustaining drives. under would probably be a good bet as well.
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#4
Posted: 12/12/2012 7:37:55 PM
9.5 is to many points in this one.K.S.plus the 9.5and a small ML bet just for the hell of it.
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#5
Posted: 12/24/2012 4:03:09 AM
I loved K st. during the season but lost a TON of money when they lost to Baylor.  Oregon will watch the tape, spread their defense out like baylor did, and make K st. a loser like Klein @ the Heisman ceremony.  Looking for Oregon to win by 17 points.  


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#6
Posted: 12/27/2012 8:23:23 PM
KSU - great story. but not a true NC caliber team.   Oregon should be playing N Dame for the NC they will show the nation why...KSU has overacheived all year and they are very well coached...so is Oregon...Oregon's talent and sytemm will be the difference.  Oregon -9
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#7
Posted: 12/28/2012 3:23:27 AM
Oregon will cover in this one. Like YANKEESDOMINACE said, Ducks will spread out KSU and take advantage of the running lanes created by doing so. Oregon's speedy offense needs only tiny seams to create big plays. Quack Attack (-9.5/-10)
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#8
Posted: 12/29/2012 5:04:43 PM
Oregon should be playing for the National Championship!!!!  They are not because the damn Taco Bell kicker could not make a damn field goal!!  You think Chip should be able to find a decent kicker somewhere, but he has failed miserably. Oh well, getting back to the game.  Baylor exposed Kansas St on both sides of the field.  Well, Oregon will expose KSU 2x more.  To be honest, Oregon laying 9 pts is generous.  The adjusted line should be more like -20.
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#9
Posted: 1/1/2013 6:37:08 PM

Love Oregon in this game.

Expect them to put up at least 40 pts in this game.

If ever i liked a Pac12 team in these bowl games,it is this one,and I

am expecting a blowout.

K st.will not be able to keep up with Oregon offense.

This is a large play for me.Good luck to all. 

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#10
Posted: 1/1/2013 9:06:14 PM
I've watched Oregon most of the year, they have one of the most efficient offenses that I've ever seen.  Their defense is average comparatively.  Loved watching KState all year, but I think they'll have match up issues.  Giving up 8 on Oregon won't be an issue..

Duck Dynasty Rises in Phoenix

Good Luck ALL
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#11
Posted: 1/2/2013 2:36:47 PM
I am passing this game.  I can make a case for K State but memories of their performance in last year;s Cotton Bowl are too much to forget.  They were outmatched physically by Ark last year and could not keep up with the passing game ( This was Petrino's Ark team, not the crappy team you saw this past year).

No one is better than Snyder but I think they may be overmatched in this one.  Numbers favor K St but only by a small amount,  With only a few bowl games left, it is best to hit the games that look the very best and pass the ones  like this that seem marginal.
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#12
Posted: 1/2/2013 3:33:51 PM
I think this game will be a shoot out.  Both teams will score a lot of points and whoever scores last will win.  This type of game favors the underdog getting 9 points.  Kansas St played the tougher schedule and played only one bad game.  Baylor caught them by surprise because they playing bad prior to that game.  Oregon played a weaker schedule.  USC lost in the Sun Bowl. Oregon St lost in the Alamo Bowl.

Kansas St  +9 
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#13
Posted: 1/2/2013 3:34:47 PM
I think this game will be a shoot out.  Both teams will score a lot of points and whoever scores last will win.  This type of game favors the underdog getting 9 points.  Kansas St played the tougher schedule and played only one bad game.  Baylor caught them by surprise because they playing bad prior to that game.  Oregon played a weaker schedule.  USC lost in the Sun Bowl. Oregon St lost in the Alamo Bowl.

Kansas St  +9 
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#14
Posted: 1/2/2013 3:43:52 PM
K. State has no rush defense!
Oregon will run all day long against them!
Oregon gets ahead early and K. State can't recover!
If Oregon plays there uptempo offense and none of this BS
slow down the pace and chew up the clock offense!
Oregon will run away putting up a 50 spot!
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#15
Posted: 1/2/2013 6:41:00 PM
ITs going to be a close game Kansas State +9

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#16
Posted: 1/2/2013 9:47:36 PM

Kansas St  got surprised by a great surging offense on the road or else they would be undefeated and playing next week. They will be ready for Oregon.

 

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#17
Posted: 1/2/2013 9:54:43 PM
This K State team is a perplexing bunch.  They do nothing flashy.  They run the ball. They play smart.  Possession passing game. Play good special teams.  Not too many dumb penalties.  Very tough physically.  Team speed is adequate but not great.  Can their 2nd tier recruits keep up with Oregon and their wide open attack?  I think so.  Do it by holding the ball, running the clock, and watching the game film of Stanford vs Oregon.  Oregon is not a physical defense and they can be pounded if K State can stay close in the first half.  Oregon gives up an average of 400 yards per game which is nothing special.  Also, look at the KSt vs West Va game to see what K St will try to do to Oregon.  Or K St vs Tex Tech.  Or K St vs Oklahoma.  Or K St vs Okie St.  Get the picture yet?  They play wide open teams every week.  Maybe not as good as Oregon but at least Oregon won't look totally foreign to K State.

My betting strategy is usually this - Can I make the case for the underdog or not ? If I can't, I will usually pass.  If I can, then I take the dog.  This keeps me off the square (public) side most of the time and often times allows me to get points AND the better team.  Here is a look at my numbers

1. Score predictor shows Oregon winning by 9 - no edge here since this right on the point spread, currently -8.

2. Public money is on Oregon by 66% - this means K St is a good contrarian play getting on 33% support from bettors.

3.  CE Diff shows the better handicappers are very close to split opinion on this game.  No edge either way

4.  SS ML play likes K St - this indicator was doing great until NY Day when it lost both Nebraska and NIU.  Still has a good overall record for the bowls ( 8- 3 ) so I will trust it one more time on K St.

5.  Early line moves are on Oregon but a significant amt of money was bet on KSt since yesterday.  This looks like smart money and would indicate a play on K St.

6.  As always, any late steam on K State would make this a 3 unit play.  I would ignore any late steam on Oregon.  Barring any change in the line or steam, I will make K State a 1 unit play only.

I know there are lot of Oregon backers here and I suspect that may be due to the visual impressions people get from watching Oregon run all over PAC 12 teams.  But the the numbers look closer than the eye test to me, at least this time.
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#18
Posted: 1/2/2013 10:00:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Nhenley:

Oregon should be playing for the National Championship!!!!  They are not because the damn Taco Bell kicker could not make a damn field goal!!  You think Chip should be able to find a decent kicker somewhere, but he has failed miserably. Oh well, getting back to the game.  Baylor exposed Kansas St on both sides of the field.  Well, Oregon will expose KSU 2x more.  To be honest, Oregon laying 9 pts is generous.  The adjusted line should be more like -20.


WHat is your method for calculating an adjusted line?  Most people use some kind pts / anticipated turnovers but that is only I with which I am familiar.  Curious how you used to get -20 which seems like a pretty big adjustment from the fair line of -9.  If there is a method that works, I would like to know more about it.
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#19
Posted: 1/2/2013 10:37:46 PM
The play is Oregon. Also over. Nothing more to say about this game. Over over over 
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#20
Posted: 1/2/2013 10:38:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by combato:

I am passing this game.  I can make a case for K State but memories of their performance in last year;s Cotton Bowl are too much to forget.  They were outmatched physically by Ark last year and could not keep up with the passing game ( This was Petrino's Ark team, not the crappy team you saw this past year).

No one is better than Snyder but I think they may be overmatched in this one.  Numbers favor K St but only by a small amount,  With only a few bowl games left, it is best to hit the games that look the very best and pass the ones  like this that seem marginal.


Okay, Okay -  I have re-evaluated the numbers and I have changed my mind.  I am going to play K State after all - please see write up below for the reasons if anyone wants to know. 


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#21
Posted: 1/2/2013 10:42:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ATLiens007:

K. State has no rush defense!
Oregon will run all day long against them!
Oregon gets ahead early and K. State can't recover!
If Oregon plays there uptempo offense and none of this BS
slow down the pace and chew up the clock offense!
Oregon will run away putting up a 50 spot!


K State holds teams to an average of 371 yards per game.  This is better than half the teams in the bowl games this year and they did it in the BIg 12 ( i know more passing than running but still not a horrible D which is my point ).  And they have played numerous spread teams although I will concede that no other team runs the Oregon offense like Oregon does.  But I don't think I would bet the game based on anticipating a poor defensive effort from K St.
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#22
Posted: 1/2/2013 11:18:30 PM
Chip Kelly is set to interview with the Browns in Arizona after the bowl game and may interview with more teams afterwards. It's going to be tough to keep focus not knowing if your coach will be back or if he is on board. May be a factor
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#23
Posted: 1/2/2013 11:29:32 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by chris3436:

Chip Kelly is set to interview with the Browns in Arizona after the bowl game and may interview with more teams afterwards. It's going to be tough to keep focus not knowing if your coach will be back or if he is on board. May be a factor

Agree there may be something to this.  Add the fact that Bill Snyder outcoaches his opponent on, nearly, a weekly basis.  Don't think you can judge KSU defense based, solely, on the Baylor game.  Alot of teams, including UCLA, had trouble containing Baylor.

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#24
Posted: 1/2/2013 11:33:36 PM
Kansas St/Oregon OVER 73.5 
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#25
Posted: 1/2/2013 11:37:29 PM
You know I hate when people over handicap a game.Cut and dry.....Oregon BIG!!!! Oregon defense is not that bad,as a matter of fact,they are good,and Kansas State is highly overrated and from the funky Big 12,thats highly overrated.Oregon will be focus regardless of interviews that are offered to Kelly.He is not leaving them,he will; be on the sidelines,and if anything,it will be.....Win one for the coach!!! Oregon will get up big and no way will K State be able top come back....they are not built that way.NO BRAINER!!!
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