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Tennessee at Vanderbilt (11/22/2008)

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Posted: #1

Away:  Tennessee [3-7 ATS]
Home:  Vanderbilt [7-3 ATS]

Game Time: 12:30 PM
Stadium: Vanderbilt Stadium

Recent Meetings:
11/17/07 - VAN 24 vs. TENN 25
11/18/06 - TENN 39 vs. VAN 10
11/19/05 - VAN 28 vs. TENN 24

Team Leaders:

Tennessee:
Passing: Nick Stephens (840)
Rushing: Arian Foster (458)
Receiving: Lucas Taylor (332)

Vanderbilt:
Passing: Mackenzi Adams (618)
Rushing: Jared Hawkins (572)
Receiving: Sean Walker (388)

More:
Live Odds
In-Depth Matchup Information
Consensus Betting Information

 
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Posted: #2
Vandy comes in off a huge win to make them bowl eligible and Tennessee has packed it in.... It is Fulmers last game and I would imagine there will be just as many Vandy fans as Vols fans.... Early lean is Vandy but will have to wait and see...
 
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Posted: #3
Scratch that Kentucky is Fulmers last game and Vandy is at home.. Liking Vandy more plus Vandy got within a point last year.....
 
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Posted: #4
Who wins when the 116th best offense takes on the 117th?

UNDER.... and Vandy probably covers too. Just hope the total doesn't come out at 13.5 otherwise I'm on it.


 
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Posted: #5
Vanderbuilt all day MaryAnn. UT is no beauty.
 
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Posted: #6
Is there really any case to be made here for Tennessee?  They may have superior talent than Vandy, but the Volunteers are just a bad football team.  I don't see how a week off after losing to Wyoming is going to help them refocus.  This team is adrift.  Are they really listening to Fulmer and that staff?
 
On the other side Vandy should be extremley motivated for this game.  A win means a victory over the big-brother-state-school rival and an improved bowl.
 
Laying 3 seems to be a good value in this spot.
 
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Posted: #7
Vandy at -3 ...MERRY CHRISTMAS....
 
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Posted: #8
I hate it when everyone agrees but Vandy at -3 seems too good to be true.  They should roll as the Vols are as bad as I can ever remember.   Vandy woke up somewhat last week and should keep it going this week.  I see Vandy by 17 or more, if UT can even score.  Also like the under, even at around 30
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by TresCoronas:

Is there really any case to be made here for Tennessee? 
 
in fact, there is!  a very strong case, in fact...
 
any of you remember a very solid capper around here by the name of w365?  well, i learned a lot from his system...
 
here we have the #38 ranked team vs. the #90 ranked team... #38 is at home, but only favored by 3 points, which barely covers homefield advantage...
 
i don't know what the stats are (you'd have to ask w...) but a team ranked 52 spots lower getting only a FG on the road... DEFINITELY fits his system...
 
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Posted: #10
Tenn. offense /  defense      116 / 7   ATS 2-7-1 Average  score on offense last 3 games 7 points
 
Vandy  offense / defense     117 / 37 ATS 7-3 Average score on offense last 3 games 17 points
 
Vandy -3
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by lobosrule:

 
in fact, there is!  a very strong case, in fact...
 
any of you remember a very solid capper around here by the name of w365?  well, i learned a lot from his system...
 
here we have the #38 ranked team vs. the #90 ranked team... #38 is at home, but only favored by 3 points, which barely covers homefield advantage...
 
i don't know what the stats are (you'd have to ask w...) but a team ranked 52 spots lower getting only a FG on the road... DEFINITELY fits his system...
 
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Posted: #12
Lobos - Maybe I don't understand this system, but that didn't sway me one bit.
 
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Posted: #13
Taaking Vandy -3. Tenn. has packed iy in. GL to all...  
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by TresCoronas:

Lobos - Maybe I don't understand this system, but that didn't sway me one bit.

like i said, you kind of have to be familiar with w365 and the system he was using... but i can tell you that guy had put a HUGE amount of work into it, and must have compiled years worth of data... and he was very well respected for the results he produced... and without having to talk to him at all, i can tell you that Tenn (+3) fits his system like a glove this week...

take it for what it's worth...

in simple terms... why is a team that is 3-7 ATS and most recently lost straight up at home to Wyoming (a total piece of shit), only getting 3 points at home against a Vandy team that is 7-3 ATS and has several very respectable wins this year?  a 3 point spread suggests these two teams are dead even (3 pts = homefield advantage)... but the sagarin ratings tell us there is a gap of 52 teams between them... that's almost half the teams in Div 1 football...

the spread tells us that Tennessee is the right play... i personally don't have any intention of betting it... but i am tempted simply because this line is absolutely begging people to bet Vandy... begging!

 
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Posted: #15
only getting 3 points on the road, i meant to say...
 
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Posted: #16
Any system that picks a team with no heart, that has packed it in and given up and with a coach who has done the same is a BAD system.  This line is too low because people still dont believe in Vandy.  Even after they are 7-3 ATS.   
 
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Posted: #17

Quote Originally Posted by 7summits:

Any system that picks a team with no heart, that has packed it in and given up and with a coach who has done the same is a BAD system.  This line is too low because people still dont believe in Vandy.  Even after they are 7-3 ATS.   


Tough to say people don't believe in Vandy.  It looks like 72% or so of the public wages are on Vandy...most lop-sided game of the day.

Only 18% of the people are dumb enough to bet UT.

I'm on UT.
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by 7summits:

Any system that picks a team with no heart, that has packed it in and given up and with a coach who has done the same is a BAD system.  This line is too low because people still dont believe in Vandy.  Even after they are 7-3 ATS.   

some people just don't get it...

 
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Posted: #19
to say "this line is too low because people still don't believe in Vandy" is to completely miss the mark... the correct spread on this game should be 10+ points... do you think the books "still don't believe in Vandy"?  the books don't believe or disbelieve... they post a line based on performances... but once in awhile (very rarely) you see a line that doesn't reflect the performance of the two teams... when it is off by this much, it is saying that the books are betting on UT... i say this because they have set a line where (as MANY PEOPLE HAVE POINTED OUT), there is only one intelligent bet you can make: Vandy!  in other words, they set a line that is FORCING YOU to bet on Vandy...
 
do i really need to keep explaining this???  if the books WANT you to bet on Vandy... why the fuck would you bet on Vandy!?
 
the books are betting on Tennessee... i would advise you not to bet against them...
 
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Posted: #20
Hmm...I was thinking about teasering Tenn to +10.  I just feel like sooner or later, Tenn is going to  actually play decent.  I have to feel like they can stay within 10 against Vandy??? 
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by lobosrule:

to say "this line is too low because people still don't believe in Vandy" is to completely miss the mark... the correct spread on this game should be 10+ points... do you think the books "still don't believe in Vandy"?  the books don't believe or disbelieve... they post a line based on performances... but once in awhile (very rarely) you see a line that doesn't reflect the performance of the two teams... when it is off by this much, it is saying that the books are betting on UT... i say this because they have set a line where (as MANY PEOPLE HAVE POINTED OUT), there is only one intelligent bet you can make: Vandy!  in other words, they set a line that is FORCING YOU to bet on Vandy...
 
do i really need to keep explaining this???  if the books WANT you to bet on Vandy... why the fuck would you bet on Vandy!?
 
the books are betting on Tennessee... i would advise you not to bet against them...


Rule number one of bookmaking....the book doesn't care who you bet on.  They only want even money on both sides.  That 10% you pay when you lose is how they build the big hotels.   


 
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Posted: #22
Looks like a sucker...but how/why on earth anyone would put money on tennessee is beyond me...might just sit on this one and see how it plays out
 
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Posted: #23
Take the poinst........fade the public.....everyone will be banging on Vandy.  These offenses absolutely suck.........two of the worst in the country in points scored..........small play on the dog and a hug play on the under.........it's the best under play of the day!!
 
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Posted: #24
[Quote: Originally Posted by 7summits          ]


Rule number one of bookmaking....the book doesn't care who you bet on.  They only want even money on both sides.  That 10% you pay when you lose is how they build the big hotels.   

no,noo,nooo!

sorry my degenerate brother, you're local man may be happy with 50/50. but that is not how vegas builds those monster resorts. it's the edge, the odds on everything they offer from craps, to blackjack, slots and those sucker carney games like 'let it ride', carribean stud, 3 card poker,etc.

 believe me, the odds makers are paid big bucks to get morons,like me, to bet on the numbers they make and they make 'em with unbelieable skill. they're so good at it, they actually bait us into picking the wrong side. what we consider attractive spreads and lines that our gambling hearts and minds just can't resist gettin' down on because vegas screwed up bad this time. lol, that my friend in how those multi billion dollar are built and later imploded to make room for more of our money.

 I wish you luck on your can't lose,free money, locks this weekend. no disrespect, but winning a dime on a dollar won't get many bricks laid. brah, work hard before you put your money down, research,research research.
burn money
 ie: chad ocho cinco did not play @ the steelers last night. do you think that changed how some people bet? maybe, and it might have made winners of those who swapped the bengals for the steelers and big ben, but it made no difference at all.  here's the deal, the bengals are still 1 and 8, 1-8 with and 1-8 without ocho. ocho a non factor when it comes to betting on the bengals, remember that team, another team perhaps.

to beat the man regularly, you gotta work and hopefully find winning edges the vegas odd makers find before they put hundreds of millions of the casinos dollars on the lines and spreads they put out for every decent contest every single game day. nope, 50/50 aint what they're looking for my degenerate brother and although they get popped once in a while, 50/50 will not get it back. 

face it, we're all squares and if we actually make money it's rar. we're sick, degenrate gamblers who love to play. don't be a moron like me, play smart,responsibly like the great cappers who help us squares here at covers. 

    Thanks for sharing your skills,winners!

.beatup
 
 
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Posted: #25
Vegas puts a line out that attracts betters to both sides. If there is a lot of money bet more to one side , the line shifts. If 1,000 people bet $100 dollars one way, and 10 people bet &1000 dollars the other way, the % change but not the line. Right now, we know 70% of the bets are on Vandy. BUT not 70% of the money wagered. Big difference. Vandy -3... GL to all
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