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Southern Methodist at Tulane (09/25/2008)

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Away:  Southern Methodist [0-2-1 ATS]
Home:  Tulane [3-0 ATS]

Game Time: 8:00 PM
Stadium: Louisiana Superdome

Recent Meetings:
10/20/07 - TULNE 41 vs. SMU 34
09/30/06 - SMU 33 vs. TULNE 28
09/24/05 - TULNE 31 vs. SMU 10

Team Leaders:

Southern Methodist:
Passing: Bo Levi Mitchell (987)
Rushing: DeMyron Martin (105)
Receiving: Emmanuel Sanders (446)

Tulane:
Passing: Kevin Moore (733)
Rushing: Andre Anderson (279)
Receiving: Jeremy Williams (213)

More:
Live Odds
In-Depth Matchup Information
Consensus Betting Information

 
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Posted: #2
Tulane at home,tougher schedule and decent stat numbers on both sides of the ball.Win yes.Cover -17? See if the line moves at all,then pass or play it.
 
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Posted: #3
Tulane has been playing good D but they really haven't played a team that spreads in like June is trying to do with SMU. Bama didn't even bother to pass on them and ECU had good success through the air coming from behind to win.
Tulane should be able to easily score on this really bad SMU defense. -17 it seems too high though on the fast track of the Superdome. Think SMU's pass happy offense will offer the ability for the backdoor cover if not make it an interesting game.
Early lean on SMU even though they are horrible.
input?
 
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Posted: #4
i think tulane will win, but only by a score.. ur right mannix, tulane did get torched by ecu later in the game, and i think smu's qb should be starting to get better in the offense..
 
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Posted: #5
June Jones' offense is designed to score from anywhere on the field as Hawaii used to do.  When the QB and recievers can get their timing, they will be a scoring machine.  I'm not sure if they are at that stage yet. 
 
Just a hunch, SMU will lose the game but cover the spread 16 1/2
 
It can be a high scoring game.
 
SMU +16 1/2 & OVER
 
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Posted: #6
I LOVE IT !!!  June"The PR*CK" Jones thought that he was going to have it good her at SMU, BUT apparently, HE ISN'T !! He left a school that he got back on the map ( Hawaii). At Hawaii he had it good for a good number of years with good qb's, good wr's, TONS of offense and scoring LOTS of home games each year, beautiful weather, ETC. What more could THE PR*CK ask for for?
I knew darn well that he would struggle BIG TIME at SMU, due to the recruiting class. SMU AIN'T going to beat out Texas, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, TCU, Houston, ETC, in recruiting !! They MIGHT be able to beat out N. Texas, that's about it !!!
I see Tulane BEATING SMU GOOD !!
Final score:  Tulane 38  SMU 20.
 
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Posted: #7
I was at the TCU game on Saturday, and SMU is horrible!  We played SFA a 1AA team the week before and SMU was no better than them.  Saying his offense is built to score from anywhere on the field is stupid, they threw maybe 5 balls farther than 15 yards down the field.  They didn't even attempt to run hardly.  The QB has looked terrrible after the first 15 minutes against Rice.  I know 17 seems like a lot to give them, but beware if you are putting your money on a team like SMU. 
 
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Posted: #8
Boys and girls......let's put this in perspective.  SMU ranks DEAD LAST in the country on defense.......and the "wide open offens" ranks a eyepopping 98th!!!!  That's out of 120 D 1 teams guys!!!  They are averaging giving up 49 points per game against D 1 schools!!!!!  And still gave up 36 to the D2 school they played while sneeking out the only victory of the season.  Tulane played ECU tough as a nail........and covered the spread agaisnt Bama who opened the their SEC schedule with a stinkstar, sphincter cramping, ass kicking of Arkanasas!!!!  This game won't be close because Tulane can name it's number at home in a rarely televised national game!!!  Not to mention......with an offense that ranks 98th in the country........you aren't going to trade plays with anyone who has a pulse!! 
 
And Like I have said before on other threads over the last two weeks.........find the teams that are undefeated ATS early in the season and ride them until they buck you!!!!  Find the teams that are winnless and go against them until they trip you up!  Penn St, Ball St, LSU, Tulane.......just to name a few off the top of my head that EVERYONE SHOULD BE RIDING until proven otherwise.  And yes, SMU.......winless ATS this year.......should be gone against. 
 
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Hello everyone.... I'm back!  Lost power for a week.... what a hurricane.... so much destruction.... anyway.... going to try to get back in the swing of things.... got to a computer on Monday and found out alot of underdogs hit that week and I lost $1800.... that's what I hate about not being able to watch or have a computer or phone, sure messes things up.... back to the drawing board..... thanks to everyone for the kind words before the hurricane... Sharp out! 
 
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Posted: #10
smu
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by Irisheyez:

Boys and girls......let's put this in perspective.  SMU ranks DEAD LAST in the country on defense.......and the "wide open offens" ranks a eyepopping 98th!!!!  That's out of 120 D 1 teams guys!!!  They are averaging giving up 49 points per game against D 1 schools!!!!!  And still gave up 36 to the D2 school they played while sneeking out the only victory of the season.  Tulane played ECU tough as a nail........and covered the spread agaisnt Bama who opened the their SEC schedule with a stinkstar, sphincter cramping, ass kicking of Arkanasas!!!!  This game won't be close because Tulane can name it's number at home in a rarely televised national game!!!  Not to mention......with an offense that ranks 98th in the country........you aren't going to trade plays with anyone who has a pulse!! 
 
And Like I have said before on other threads over the last two weeks.........find the teams that are undefeated ATS early in the season and ride them until they buck you!!!!  Find the teams that are winnless and go against them until they trip you up!  Penn St, Ball St, LSU, Tulane.......just to name a few off the top of my head that EVERYONE SHOULD BE RIDING until proven otherwise.  And yes, SMU.......winless ATS this year.......should be gone against. 

Couldn't have said it better.  Taking Tulane in this one!

 
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Posted: #12
should be officual thus far, SM What who ever they are should cover, Now Just Hope it's like 87% or better on the other team, Line may drop, and smu loses by 10-11-12 -13 and I cash, should be no different then all 3 games last weekday games... :)
GL Wow, even the dogs will lose bad, when the public is all on them, Jets, >SD=Money 
 
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Posted: #13
cap da marketplace, Long Run,public will not win:( at the end of the week.Bet with them and pay, everyweek....
BOL
 
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Posted: #14
I have a question... where would I go to find what % the public is betting?

Cliff
 
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Posted: #15
just locked in my smu play.. i think they'll be able to exploit that secondary.. not to mention tulane's defense will be much easier for smu to play this week then last
 
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Posted: #16
Welcome back Sharp.Worst part here was the severe wind damage with minimal flooding in the usual spots.
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by CollegeSharp:

Hello everyone.... I'm back!  Lost power for a week.... what a hurricane.... so much destruction.... anyway.... going to try to get back in the swing of things.... got to a computer on Monday and found out alot of underdogs hit that week and I lost $1800.... that's what I hate about not being able to watch or have a computer or phone, sure messes things up.... back to the drawing board..... thanks to everyone for the kind words before the hurricane... Sharp out! 
glad to hear things are going well. i have client down that way. bad storm. nice to hear you and your family made it ok.
 
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Posted: #18
tulane @ home all day!!! jones is at least 3 yrs from an even mediocre team. going tulane/usc parlay. waiting on ov/un.
 
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Posted: #19

I consier the public $$ amongst other things when betting and use this site as an added tool to get info about injuries and to see what people think that have good info on specific teams the know a lot about that i don't.  someone said it right when they said that sportsbook, wagerline, etc. use subjective public #'s, which is probably true.  A good site that doesn't is www.smartcapper.com, it is a lot more objective and it is a combination of sites or casinos and averages them and shows open and current #'s.  I don't live and die by public #'s but they don't lie when it comes to taking a game that "looks too easy" because it probably is.  I have done well doing this in NCAA football this year.  Another great tool is vegasexperts.com.  Lots and lots and lots of info.   GL

 
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Team (A/H)                                          Public %’s        Open                Current

Marshall/WVU                                     34/66               -17                   -15.5

Not a big % on WVU to move it the opposite way so dramatically….something we don’t know?  Looks to me like vegas wants more $$ on WVU but need to look at Marshall’s #’s, but I actually DO like WVU.  Especially if it goes down to -14.

 

USC/Oregon St.                                               90/10               -21.5                -24

50-10 blowout AT Oregon St.?....Public seems to think so.  This might close at -30!!

 

Miss/UF                                                           32/68               -24                   -23

This is what I was talking about…Vegas makes this line 3.5 TD’s with how UF is playing, lowers it a bit with all the $$ on UF so the public bites even more and Ole Miss ends up losing by 14.  Don’t be surprised if it drops even more.

 

Buffalo/CMU                                                   32/68               -7                     -6

Both teams playing fairly well, but I still like CMU if it stays below 7, going against the grain.

 

Purdue/Notre Dame                                        64/36               -3                     -1.5

The money on Purdue is pulling this line down, but -1.5?  This game will probably end up being a pick by Friday, and I like how Weiss is coaching Notre Dame this year.  Big win at home against Painter and the Boilermakers IMO.  ND has a bowl in their sights this year.

 
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Fishy/enticing games that caught my eye...any input would be nice...its short cuz i e-mailed this to a friend,.....JMO

Team (A/H)                                          Public %’s        Open                Current

Marshall/WVU                                           34/66               -17                   -15.5

Not a big % on WVU to move it the opposite way so dramatically….something we don’t know?  Looks to me like vegas wants more $$ on WVU but need to look at Marshall’s #’s, but I actually DO like WVU.  Especially if it goes down to -14.

 

USC/Oregon St.                                               90/10               -21.5                -24

50-10 blowout AT Oregon St.?....Public seems to think so.  This might close at -30!!

 

Miss/UF                                                           32/68               -24                   -23

This is what I was talking about…Vegas makes this line 3.5 TD’s with how UF is playing, lowers it a bit with all the $$ on UF so the public bites even more and Ole Miss ends up losing by 14.  Don’t be surprised if it drops even more.

 

 

Purdue/Notre Dame                                        64/36               -3                     -1.5

The money on Purdue is pulling this line down, but -1.5?  This game will probably end up being a pick by Friday, and I like how Weiss is coaching Notre Dame this year.  Big win at home against Painter and the Boilermakers IMO.  ND has a bowl in their sights this year.

 

 

 
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Bama/Georgia                                     55/45              7.5                  -6.5

Pretty much 50/50 and probably will be ‘til game time with the line floating around a TD.  Bama=high powered O, Georgia=Good D, with some injuries.  Seems like a low scoring affair to me that will probably come down to a field goal.  My lean is Bama with Georgia winning 21-19 with a late FG.  Would need to see the history between these two teams the last few years to get a better handle but will be a good game to bet AND watch.

 

TCU/Oklahoma                                              30/70    -18.5                -17.5

Another “Vegas trap” IMO.  Vegas adjusting this line to make some money back since Oklahoma has been so explosive and winning by a margin of about 30.  Seems to me like it should be a VERY VERY close game.  This game SHOULD be 3 TD’s, but it is less AND going down against the public $$.  I might actually take TCU in this one, need to look more but they must have a good D to be getting so few points because I don’t believe they are a powerhouse.

 

UAB/South Carolina                                      41/59          -26.5                -24.5

Is their something I am missing here?  South Carolina shouldn’t be giving ANYone 24+, but the money is on South Carolina and the line is going down.  Would like to see who UAB has played this year and how they fared.  South Carolina isn’t playing THAT well and have bigger fish to fry and might be looking ahead.  Would take South Carolina if line drops to -21, maybe.

 

Kent/Ball St.                                                   25/75       18                   -17

Another trap game IMO.  I can’t bet against ball state for trend purposes but Kent State seems like the right move here.  Also, another game that vegas is trying to get money back on.  Ball state have been covering, and by quite a bit.  Time to adjust the line.  Kent should PROBABLY only be getting 12 or 13 points but vegas makes them 18 point dogs and then drop the line to -17 so everyone takes ball state since they have been so explosive.  Time to come back to earth for ball state, if they cover it will be back door IMO.  Not touching this game, will take ball state again soon though.

 

 

 
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Sorry it is so long-winded and might look kinda out of whack   it is copy and pasted from word.  Would just like some input on any of these games, not criticism since i know some people on here love to do that.  Hopefully i can be of help as well.  This is just my theory behind this:  certain teams being 2-1 ATS or 0-3 ATS for example and vegas trying to "catch up" and adjust the lines for certain teams accordingly.   pretty much if a team has been
covering their lines by 5 points for instance, the next game that team plays, vegas will make the line "-12" instead of "-5" and then drop the line down against the public $$ hoping to get people on that team even more with the line moving in their favor, yet it is still above the "-5" that team SHOULD be giving, but in the public view, that team has been covering and by 4 or 5 so the line SHOULD be "-12" RIGHT?  not to mention it is dropping, but trends only last for so long and vegas knows that, so you have to be careful.  Especially when it is a team that is 3-1 ATS giving points to a
team that is 0-4 ATS.
 
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Posted: #24
I just want to bet against June Jones just because I hate how abandoned the Warriors. He is not doing so good with his new team. It could be that bad karma or the Hawaiian gods teaching him a lesson
 
 
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Posted: #25
Teasing Tulane with the Trojans big!
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