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2017 Belmont Stakes

Forum: Horse Racing
Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: 2017 Belmont Stakes
GameHunter PM GameHunter
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 17529
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Posted: 6/10/2017 11:50:23 AM

Interesting race even though we don’t get the Derby or Preakness winners:

#1 TWISTED TOM - Brings a three race winning streak into his first try in the Triple Crown Series. Has the pedigree to go long and Chad Brown is probably the hottest trainer in the country. Sheet figures are quite slow but did jump up in his last at Laurel in the mud. Still, that effort isn’t nearly good enough to compete for a top spot here. Will get a ground saving trip here and there is some buzz in the backstretch that this one will outrun his odds but in my opinion, this race would have to completely fall apart to give him a chance. Not for me other than sprinkling in as a saver on the bottom of fancy exotic bets.

#2 TAPWRIT – Was purchased for a staggering $1.2 million before he began his racing career. Solid two year old campaign and broke the track record at 1 1/16th miles at Tampa in January. Understandably he bounced in the Bluegrass and threw in a dud. Rough trip in the Derby (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_j6UndOWOMY&t=31s) but effort was better than it looked. Should give a better effort today with five weeks rest. Sheet numbers are very solid. Needs to avoid a slow start out of gate. Major contender.

#3 GORMLEY - He won the Santa Anita Derby and has won 4 of his 7 career races but his three losses were flops. The win in the SA Derby set up perfectly for him and wasn't overly impressive in my opinion. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=keLRgFlz8aY). Another, who had a horrible trip in the Derby going 5 wide most of the tip and was a bit eased in the end. Comes in off five weeks rest, which could mean we should expect a solid effort. Sheet numbers are respectable but tough to consider for top honors. Definitely a contender to hit ticket.

#4 J BOYS ECHO - Was super impressive winning the Gotham beating Preakness winner, Cloud Computing with a very solid sheet number but I thought that race set up perfectly for him with a cushy, ground saving trip. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2KxtcQ7RGA). He regressed in the Bluegrass and Derby. Trainer Dale Romans upon arrival in New York: “Worst traffic I’ve seen [New York City] besides today was May 6 at 6:50 [Derby]. Worse trip than a hillbilly trying to drive through Manhattan.” Flopped in Derby. but many did due to traffic and track condition. Five weeks rest helps a lot and we have yet to see this horse’s best. Solid chance to hit ticket.

#5 HOLLYWOOD HANDSOME – Took 4 races to win his first race as a two year old and another four races to win his first race as a three year old against mediocre competition in his lifetime best. His fastest sheet number doesn’t even come close to putting him into contention here. Toss.

#6 LOOKIN AT LEE – This horse has been an enigma for me in the first two Triple Crown races and he messed up my triples and superfectas in the Preakness (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o8KysrMbAyY) despite my very successful day. I think this horse is the most likely to under-perform versus his expected odds today. This horse is heavily raced. This is his fourth start in the last 8 weeks and 3rd Triple Crown race in 5 weeks and this race is a grueling mile and a half. He is the only horse to race in all three Triple Crown events this year. A rail saving trip and his ability to avoid traffic and obstacles aided his impressive second place finish in the Derby. He was a solid third in the Preakness closing from behind however, I don’t’ see this race setting up for him and there are better closers in here. His sheet numbers are ok but I just don’t see this horse firing his best shot against others, who are much more well rested. He obviously could hit the ticket but I’m betting against him today.

#7 IRISH WAR CRY - 4 wins in 6 lifetime races but threw a complete clunker in the Fountain of Youth three back and a horrendous trip in the Derby. His win in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct two back was outstanding with an eye popping sheet number, which would crush this field. Which Irish War Cry do we get today? Has solid early speed and will be on or near lead early on. He’s well rested with five weeks off. Only question is how does he handle the longer distance. If he races anything like he did in the Wood, he’s your winner. Have to include on tickets.

GameHunter PM GameHunter
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 17529
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Posted: 6/10/2017 11:51:54 AM
#8 SENIOR INVESTMENT - Had never faced Grade 1 competition until his sold 3rd place finish in the Preakness. Broke through in his last with a new top figure after producing his new top figure in the previous race. He has shown huge development since his two year old campaign and cannot think he has much room for improvement at this point. Another stone cold closer and he’s not as good as some of the other closers. Not completely horrible but cannot use him much other than a sprinkle in at the bottom of exotic bets. A bit of a wise guy horse who I am not as excited about as some others.

#9 MEANTIME – Newcomer to the Triple Crown series. Lightly raced with just four career races, all as a three year old. Consistent figures in all 4 races, with the last two coming on wet tracks. Likely will be on the front end early. Would need to improve a lot to contend for top honors but a slightly improvement could put him in contention to hit the board. Distance is a question mark. Usable on bottom of tickets.

#10 MULTIPLIER - Took three races to get his first win and didn’t look that spectacular and then exploded in last winning the Illinois Derby with an outstanding trip. The Illinois Derby hasn’t proven to be an excellent prep for the Triple Crown races and while his win in the Illinois Derby was impressive, he ran the same figure in the Preakness and was overmatched. Would need to vastly improve and I just don’t see it. A saver on the bottom of exotics at best.

#11 EPICHARIS – The “X” factor. Epicharis, who was the leader of the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby and opted not to run in the Derby or Preakness. He now comes to the Belmont Stakes chasing a $1,000,000 bonus should he win. In 2016 there were only 15 graded stakes races on the dirt at all of the tracks in Japan. At Tokyo Racecourse, where Epicharis won two of his races, there is just one grade one stake and three grade threes on the dirt. The track record for one mile at Tokyo is 1:34. In comparison, Epicharis’ most recent victory came at Tokyo in the ungraded Hyacinth Stakes in a time of 1:37:4 for the mile distance. All of the winning times in his races have been far slower than what is expected from dirt horses in the US. This level of competition may be more than Epicharis has seen before. In addition, Epicharis will be the first American starter for Hagiwara, who trains 55 horses in Japan. This horse is the youngest horse in the race, had to be quarantined in Japan and then when he first arrive din the US and word is he has been nursing a bruised foot and theirs is still even a chance he may not run today. Too many question marks for me to take seriously. Tough to completely toss out as he is an “X” factor but inclined to leave out. LATE SCRATCH

#12 PATCH – The biggest surprise in the Derby that went unnoticed was how this horse went off at 14-1 from the outside post. He should have been 50-1+. The reason is he is the sentimental horse with just one eye. Awww. Love that. Only four career races. His sire Union Rags won this race. Bred to run long so the distance shouldn’t be a problem but not fast enough. Love the story but have to toss. Odds will be much lower than they should be.

The mile and a half distance is said to be the great equalizer so the race could be an interesting one.

GameHunter PM GameHunter
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 17529
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Posted: 6/10/2017 6:51:20 PM
Boom again! LOL
TigerTy PM TigerTy
Joined: Dec 2013
Posts: 76
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Posted: 6/10/2017 8:07:37 PM
Damn I had this super. J Boy let me down. Patch? Really? lol
dabreeze PM dabreeze
Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 762
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Posted: 6/10/2017 8:33:13 PM
Luck Day. Hit a 2$ Trifecta Box for a cool $655 on the featured race. Amazing, I'd been lumbering along back and forth playing daily MLB and NBA and tennis.

Then, BOOM 2 minutes + and I'm comfortable.     
bigred84 PM bigred84
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 3101
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Posted: 6/11/2017 7:09:11 AM
Nice hit....
The Hawk PM The Hawk
Joined: Jul 2006
Posts: 18653
The Hawk
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Posted: 6/11/2017 11:48:45 AM
Game, you nailed it!

Hope you bet it!

Great job!
Forum: Horse Racing
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