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#1
BELMONT STAKES
Interesting race even though we don’t get the Derby or Preakness winners:
#1 TWISTED TOM - Brings a three race winning streak into his first try in the Triple Crown Series. Has the pedigree to go long and Chad Brown is probably the hottest trainer in the country. Sheet figures are quite slow but did jump up in his last at Laurel in the mud. Still, that effort isn’t nearly good enough to compete for a top spot here. Will get a ground saving trip here and there is some buzz in the backstretch that this one will outrun his odds but in my opinion, this race would have to completely fall apart to give him a chance. Not for me other than sprinkling in as a saver on the bottom of fancy exotic bets.
#2 TAPWRIT – Was purchased for a staggering $1.2 million before he began his racing career. Solid two year old campaign and broke the track record at 1 1/16th miles at Tampa in January. Understandably he bounced in the Bluegrass and threw in a dud. Rough trip in the Derby (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_j6UndOWOMY&t=31s) but effort was better than it looked. Should give a better effort today with five weeks rest. Sheet numbers are very solid. Needs to avoid a slow start out of gate. Major contender.
#3 GORMLEY - He won the Santa Anita Derby and has won 4 of his 7 career races but his three losses were flops. The win in the SA Derby set up perfectly for him and wasn't overly impressive in my opinion. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=keLRgFlz8aY). Another, who had a horrible trip in the Derby going 5 wide most of the tip and was a bit eased in the end. Comes in off five weeks rest, which could mean we should expect a solid effort. Sheet numbers are respectable but tough to consider for top honors. Definitely a contender to hit ticket.
#4 J BOYS ECHO - Was super impressive winning the Gotham beating Preakness winner, Cloud Computing with a very solid sheet number but I thought that race set up perfectly for him with a cushy, ground saving trip. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2KxtcQ7RGA). He regressed in the Bluegrass and Derby. Trainer Dale Romans upon arrival in New York: “Worst traffic I’ve seen [New York City] besides today was May 6 at 6:50 [Derby]. Worse trip than a hillbilly trying to drive through Manhattan.” Flopped in Derby. but many did due to traffic and track condition. Five weeks rest helps a lot and we have yet to see this horse’s best. Solid chance to hit ticket.
#5 HOLLYWOOD HANDSOME – Took 4 races to win his first race as a two year old and another four races to win his first race as a three year old against mediocre competition in his lifetime best. His fastest sheet number doesn’t even come close to putting him into contention here. Toss.
#6 LOOKIN AT LEE – This horse has been an enigma for me in the first two Triple Crown races and he messed up my triples and superfectas in the Preakness (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o8KysrMbAyY) despite my very successful day. I think this horse is the most likely to under-perform versus his expected odds today. This horse is heavily raced. This is his fourth start in the last 8 weeks and 3rd Triple Crown race in 5 weeks and this race is a grueling mile and a half. He is the only horse to race in all three Triple Crown events this year. A rail saving trip and his ability to avoid traffic and obstacles aided his impressive second place finish in the Derby. He was a solid third in the Preakness closing from behind however, I don’t’ see this race setting up for him and there are better closers in here. His sheet numbers are ok but I just don’t see this horse firing his best shot against others, who are much more well rested. He obviously could hit the ticket but I’m betting against him today.
#7 IRISH WAR CRY - 4 wins in 6 lifetime races but threw a complete clunker in the Fountain of Youth three back and a horrendous trip in the Derby. His win in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct two back was outstanding with an eye popping sheet number, which would crush this field. Which Irish War Cry do we get today? Has solid early speed and will be on or near lead early on. He’s well rested with five weeks off. Only question is how does he handle the longer distance. If he races anything like he did in the Wood, he’s your winner. Have to include on tickets.
Interesting race even though we don’t get the Derby or Preakness winners:
#1 TWISTED TOM - Brings a three race winning streak into his first try in the Triple Crown Series. Has the pedigree to go long and Chad Brown is probably the hottest trainer in the country. Sheet figures are quite slow but did jump up in his last at Laurel in the mud. Still, that effort isn’t nearly good enough to compete for a top spot here. Will get a ground saving trip here and there is some buzz in the backstretch that this one will outrun his odds but in my opinion, this race would have to completely fall apart to give him a chance. Not for me other than sprinkling in as a saver on the bottom of fancy exotic bets.
#2 TAPWRIT – Was purchased for a staggering $1.2 million before he began his racing career. Solid two year old campaign and broke the track record at 1 1/16th miles at Tampa in January. Understandably he bounced in the Bluegrass and threw in a dud. Rough trip in the Derby (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_j6UndOWOMY&t=31s) but effort was better than it looked. Should give a better effort today with five weeks rest. Sheet numbers are very solid. Needs to avoid a slow start out of gate. Major contender.
#3 GORMLEY - He won the Santa Anita Derby and has won 4 of his 7 career races but his three losses were flops. The win in the SA Derby set up perfectly for him and wasn't overly impressive in my opinion. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=keLRgFlz8aY). Another, who had a horrible trip in the Derby going 5 wide most of the tip and was a bit eased in the end. Comes in off five weeks rest, which could mean we should expect a solid effort. Sheet numbers are respectable but tough to consider for top honors. Definitely a contender to hit ticket.
#4 J BOYS ECHO - Was super impressive winning the Gotham beating Preakness winner, Cloud Computing with a very solid sheet number but I thought that race set up perfectly for him with a cushy, ground saving trip. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2KxtcQ7RGA). He regressed in the Bluegrass and Derby. Trainer Dale Romans upon arrival in New York: “Worst traffic I’ve seen [New York City] besides today was May 6 at 6:50 [Derby]. Worse trip than a hillbilly trying to drive through Manhattan.” Flopped in Derby. but many did due to traffic and track condition. Five weeks rest helps a lot and we have yet to see this horse’s best. Solid chance to hit ticket.
#5 HOLLYWOOD HANDSOME – Took 4 races to win his first race as a two year old and another four races to win his first race as a three year old against mediocre competition in his lifetime best. His fastest sheet number doesn’t even come close to putting him into contention here. Toss.
#6 LOOKIN AT LEE – This horse has been an enigma for me in the first two Triple Crown races and he messed up my triples and superfectas in the Preakness (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o8KysrMbAyY) despite my very successful day. I think this horse is the most likely to under-perform versus his expected odds today. This horse is heavily raced. This is his fourth start in the last 8 weeks and 3rd Triple Crown race in 5 weeks and this race is a grueling mile and a half. He is the only horse to race in all three Triple Crown events this year. A rail saving trip and his ability to avoid traffic and obstacles aided his impressive second place finish in the Derby. He was a solid third in the Preakness closing from behind however, I don’t’ see this race setting up for him and there are better closers in here. His sheet numbers are ok but I just don’t see this horse firing his best shot against others, who are much more well rested. He obviously could hit the ticket but I’m betting against him today.
#7 IRISH WAR CRY - 4 wins in 6 lifetime races but threw a complete clunker in the Fountain of Youth three back and a horrendous trip in the Derby. His win in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct two back was outstanding with an eye popping sheet number, which would crush this field. Which Irish War Cry do we get today? Has solid early speed and will be on or near lead early on. He’s well rested with five weeks off. Only question is how does he handle the longer distance. If he races anything like he did in the Wood, he’s your winner. Have to include on tickets.
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