Saratoga Race Course and Del Mar Thoroughbred Club - 8/12

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Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: Saratoga Race Course and Del Mar Thoroughbred Club - 8/12
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 8/12/2012 3:43:11 PM
see if we can beat a few chalkies.  gonna be some heavy favs in a couple of these at the Spa.  lazy sunday afternoon what the hell i jumped on formulator and printed a few off.

spa 6

1 WP

9/1 on the tote.  i'll give this broad a chance 2nd time out against this 3/5 fav outside. 
mstrH PM mstrH
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Posted: 8/12/2012 3:48:49 PM
 champ
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 8/12/2012 3:55:55 PM
3rd at 12/1.  big fav won.  race 7 should be a decent chance for value.  passing race 9.  races 10 will have a 1/9 shot and race 11 could have a heavy fav with the pletcher scratch.
spliquid PM spliquid
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Posted: 8/12/2012 4:03:29 PM
GL Sir 
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 8/12/2012 4:07:24 PM
fellas thanks good to see you
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 8/12/2012 4:11:15 PM
spa 7

1 WP

6/1 on the board.  ok wide open on soft green here rail is out at 18 feet.  not thrilled with any of the runners that have run already though the players obviously expect a lot from this 6.  of the firsters i prefer the 1 here based on fitness (like the buildup in the drills) and trainer's ability to debut beyond a mile (15%).  blood is solid as well.  6/1 i can live with that.  chad has the fav but is 8% in debut and 8% debut beyond a mile.  i'll swing against here.  wet turf an obvious wildcard. 
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 8/12/2012 4:31:49 PM
saratoga

6/1 winner

fitness, fitness, fitness.  Maker 13% in debut and 15% debut beyond a mile.  Kitten's Joy and Dam out of Grand slam says green all day and Javy was riding.
howzuck PM howzuck
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Posted: 8/12/2012 4:39:57 PM
Wow, great job, what can you do for an encore?
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 8/12/2012 4:45:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by howzuck:

Wow, great job, what can you do for an encore?


thanks.  don't know each race is an independent event.  race 8 offers some value.  race 9 i am passing i very rarely touch state bred maiden claimer pieces of garbage.  either an odds on class dropper wins or who knows.  i don;t see any way to cap them.  race 10 will have a 1/9 shot and i may just watch if I don't think there is a legit chance to beat her.  race 11 i might actually be on the fav depending on tote.

playing races 3, 4, 6, 8, and 9 at the beach and they all look decent in terms of value. 
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Posted: 8/12/2012 4:52:24 PM
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 8/12/2012 4:54:33 PM
spa 8

1 WP

9/2 on the tote.  recency, late speed, pattern, distance, stamina.  this gal is not faster or better than the others per se but she consistently puts in an effort and doesn't fall apart late.  wide, wide open race here and at 9/2 on the board i will give her a shot.  hopefully some pace for her to go get late.
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 8/12/2012 5:06:17 PM
2nd by a nostril.

got shuffled back and literally went nine wide around the far turn

they bet her late i figured she would go down but not below 4/1. 
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 8/12/2012 6:04:42 PM
del mar 3

7 W

speed, pace.  gotta hold on late  no price here but the others inconsistent or they come from the clouds
howzuck PM howzuck
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Posted: 8/12/2012 6:08:08 PM
Atlas, are you aware of the bridgejumpers at Saratoga?  5 horse field in the 10th with 1-5 Kauai Kate - who of the others is most likely to come in the money?  Looking for the big show payoff....
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 8/12/2012 6:10:44 PM
passing Spa race 10.  thought maybe the 4 but she hasn't faced anything other than cupcakes.  just gonna watch.  the main risk with this huge fav is the quick turnaround but jesus she just towers over them based on figs.
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 8/12/2012 6:18:43 PM
2nd at del mar in a photo

the 1 took it.  i gave very strong consideration to the 1 but the inconsistency was my concern not the first time turf.  damn 1 fires today figures.
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 8/12/2012 6:22:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by howzuck:

Atlas, are you aware of the bridgejumpers at Saratoga?  5 horse field in the 10th with 1-5 Kauai Kate - who of the others is most likely to come in the money?  Looking for the big show payoff....


i think that strategy has a better chance when the huge favorite has clunkers in the form.  if the huge fav can run up the track it could happen today and you get the big show payouts.  this fav only had to beat a handful of others and her fig was just so much stronger.

though i wasn't that impressed she looked a bit tired late.
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 8/12/2012 6:33:39 PM
del mar 4

10 WP

5/1 on the tote.  very wide open.  like the outside slot in debut and kinda sneaky drills for Baffert looks like he liked the 5/8ths move on 6/30 and 6f move 7/19 and then kinda went easy on him.  maybe he thinks he's ready.  bred to go this far and much, much further so if he is far back maybe he can bring it late.
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 8/12/2012 6:44:01 PM
saratoga race 11

5 WP
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 8/12/2012 6:50:37 PM
del mar 3rd.  came running late.  horse takes a while to get into his stride he should love two turns.

spa nothing.  tried to beat the big fav.
Kurshka PM Kurshka
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Posted: 8/12/2012 6:54:10 PM
Whats up big A. 106 degrees last two days.
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 8/12/2012 7:07:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Kurshka:

Whats up big A. 106 degrees last two days.


what's up dude? 

what a joke at The Spa.  i hit a $10 Pick 4 singling both of those last two chalkies just in case.  ha what a joke the $1 p4 pays 82 bucks.


atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 8/12/2012 7:08:33 PM
beach 5

11 WP

  grind down these turds.  1 should be trying to wire them but should attract some pressure.
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 8/12/2012 7:13:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Kurshka:

Whats up big A. 106 degrees last two days.


I remember that heat.  even in LA it would be 100-105 for a few months of the year.  had to be closer to the water.  BC in Arcadia early November I remember high 90's
Kurshka PM Kurshka
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Posted: 8/12/2012 7:13:10 PM
So how is life on the east coast treating you buddy. I started a new job over a month ago and rarely get to play the mules anymore. Man I miss San Diego.
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