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Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: EARLY BELMONT LEAN
UL-LAFAYETTEKID
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#1
Posted: 5/20/2012 6:32:06 PM

first we have a fellow rider here in louisiana named EJ perrodin that has rode for the pass 30 years or so at the fairgrounds and louisiana downs and is not doing good at all so lets all say a prayer for EJ  ....kent desormeaux did not pass a breathlizer test the other day at belmont and could not ride his mount tiger walk in the preakness the other day...TRAINER DALE ROMANS has stuck with kent throu all of his troubles and if he can get his self right and dullahans works  good over big sandy than i expect a big effort in the belmont stakes...doug;s horse will be hard to beat but desormeaux was the last jockey to have a chance at a triple crown with BIG BROWN and he also had a chance with real quiet.. look for kent to play the sporiler role here and come running late  to run down the derby and preakness winner and this may help to jumpstart his career again...GL TO all.............. 

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#2
Posted: 5/20/2012 8:32:28 PM
First and most important, prayers go out to Perrodin. One of the jocks (I forget who) mentioned him yesterday in a pre race interview. Pretty cool stuff right there.

On to the Belmont, I believe Romans has already pulled Kent from Dullahan. If I recall he said he wasn't sure who would ride the horse in the Belmont.

Be careful with Dullahan, the Belmont is often won by horses closer to the pace. Also, just because a horse closes at 1 1/8 doesn't mean he will have the same kick at a longer distance. Churchill is a tricky track to judge the dirt ability of dirt/synthetic horses. They seem to run good there and then tail off when they ship elsewhere. He will be overbet as well, so not much value with a lot of question marks IMO.

Best of luck
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#3
Posted: 5/20/2012 8:33:21 PM
should be turf/synthetic horses
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#4
Posted: 5/20/2012 8:47:37 PM

I'm worried most about Union Rags taking down IHA in the Belmont. 

Can he get the distance?  We shall see.

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#5
Posted: 5/20/2012 9:45:49 PM
Should get a good price on all the other horses. Good race to make some money. It is nearly impossible to win the triple crown. I need to find the Sarava of this years Belmont...
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#6
Posted: 5/20/2012 9:54:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Johnnyg7:

First and most important, prayers go out to Perrodin. One of the jocks (I forget who) mentioned him yesterday in a pre race interview. Pretty cool stuff right there.

On to the Belmont, I believe Romans has already pulled Kent from Dullahan. If I recall he said he wasn't sure who would ride the horse in the Belmont.

Be careful with Dullahan, the Belmont is often won by horses closer to the pace. Also, just because a horse closes at 1 1/8 doesn't mean he will have the same kick at a longer distance. Churchill is a tricky track to judge the dirt ability of dirt/synthetic horses. They seem to run good there and then tail off when they ship elsewhere. He will be overbet as well, so not much value with a lot of question marks IMO.

Best of luck
yes johnnyg7 mike smith was the jockey that talked about EJ ....if romans pulls kent i will not play him unless johny V or roman D gets the mount ...but i still think dale will stay withll desormeaux because he knows the horse well from the bluegrass and derby....i don;t think he will be to overbet because doug;s horse will be like 7/5 or 6/5 because everybody will want to get or have a triple crown ticket for history and union rags will take some play especcially if he has a new rider so dullahan may be anywhere from 6 to 9 to one......gl johnyg7........
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#7
Posted: 5/20/2012 11:12:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by glyde69:

I'm worried most about Union Rags taking down IHA in the Belmont. 

Can he get the distance?  We shall see.



With over 400 foals, Dixie Union has yet to produce a stakes winner at 1 1/8 or longer.
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#8
Posted: 5/21/2012 11:02:56 AM
I remember E.J. winning so many turf races he was called the "god of the sod".  Prayers for him and his family.  He is really a Louisiana Legend.  And thanks to trainer Patrick Mouton who gave him mounts until he was unable to ride any more.
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#9
Posted: 5/21/2012 12:45:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Johnnyg7:



With over 400 foals, Dixie Union has yet to produce a stakes winner at 1 1/8 or longer.


No doubt that pedigree is a question mark. I still think he has the best chance of any to give IHA trouble... Well maybe Paynter if he is loose on the lead. I agree that the CD surface plays best for the synthetic/turf horses. We have also seen many horses run great first on dirt but then just run like garbage after. I tossed Went the day well in the Preakness and that was the key to my day. I will most likely toss Dullahan because they have said he trains like a turf horse and most likely is a turf horse who ran decent on the dirt at churchill.

Union Rags had a disaster of a trip in the derby. If you could have wrote a script for the worse possible trip in the derby it would have been named Union rags. Checked, steadied, weaved, broke bad. With all that being said he still had the fastest final quarter in the derby.

Either way the belmont is more of a watch and enjoy race for me. I usually get hammered in the race. Mile and 1/2 is just ridiculous and to be the last leg of the crown is asking too much. Would I want it changed? No but it is just a very tough race to bet. IHA will most likely win and is a deserving 8-5 favorite
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#10
Posted: 5/21/2012 3:02:21 PM

Any thoughts about Liaison and Rousing Sermon if they run?  


They both made pretty good runs in the Derby.

Liaison in particular kind of interests me if Baffert runs him.   That was a much improved run from him in the Derby in my opinion.  Best race he's run since he clipped heels in the Robert Lewis.  Baffert put the blinks back on him in the Derby, said he's a lazy horse and without the blinks never gets involved in the race much.  Said taking the blinks off was a mistake.    He's PP's seem to be prove of that.    Showed better early speed and was wide most of the Derby and still had enough in the tank to finish 6th ahead of Union Rags who was coming hard.     He's got some Victory Gallop and AP Indy in his pedigree, both Belmont winners.    He was working well before the Derby also.    He did win a Grade 1 before as a 2 yr old.


Rousing Sermon made a long sustained run in the Derby beginning in about the middle of the backstretch.  He got a very clean trip and a nice ride.   That's two nice races in a row from him and might be in top form after the 5 weeks off.    Seems like he might be that "grinder" type of horse that could be dangerous in the Belmont.


I'm just talking at this point.   No picks.    These are two I've already did a little research on.    

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#11
Posted: 5/21/2012 4:01:01 PM
Definitely have to keep an open mind in the Belmont Greyhound. I am going to wait until the final week to look over the entries. Mile and a half is a very tricky race. We have seen loose speed win at big odds. We have seen newcomers win at huge odds. The Belmont is definitely a race where you can take a stab
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#12
Posted: 5/21/2012 4:09:13 PM

I think it was Jerry Bailey who made the quote a few years back that "every horse outruns their pedigree in the Belmont."

The exception I think was Birdstone who was built for that race if I recall correctly.

I remain completely against Dullahan. I know he ran fantastic in the Derby, but am still convinced that the Bluegrass Race is a false indication of his abilities, or lack thereof (as I said before, show me a Bluegrass winner that has performed well in the TC series).

The interesting thing is looking back at recent Belmont winners and the lack of achievements after. Most seemed to be 'fresh' horses.

I will be very interested to see how some of these fresh horses train over the next couple of weeks.

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#13
Posted: 5/21/2012 4:52:00 PM
Union Rags couldn't beat a Budweiser Clydesdale in a race across the street. The Belmont is a mile and a half and that piece of garbage horse can't run a half a mile. Then you mix in the fact that he's got the typical gutless, soft, European french frog person of a jockey and the horse should be a 100-1.
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#14
Posted: 5/21/2012 5:27:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gregd1958:

Union Rags couldn't beat a Budweiser Clydesdale in a race across the street. The Belmont is a mile and a half and that piece of garbage horse can't run a half a mile. Then you mix in the fact that he's got the typical gutless, soft, European french frog person of a jockey and the horse should be a 100-1.




For my first post since Preakness, I couldn't DISAGREE MORE

IHA will fall short like the 7, 8,  or 9  first 2 leg winners before him and not WIN Triple Crown

Like DJ stated above, a "fresh horse" will be the most likely winner at 1 1/2 miles Just sayin.......
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#15
Posted: 5/22/2012 8:51:18 AM

 away!! 

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#16
Posted: 5/22/2012 10:08:30 AM

Triple Crown - Wikipedia    


Belmont results for potential Triple Crown winners since 1979

1979: Spectacular Bid shows, 3¼ lengths behind the winner, Coastal, a neck behind the second-place horse, Golden Act.
1981: Pleasant Colony shows, 1½ lengths behind the winner, Summing, and the second-place horse, Highland Blade.
1987: Alysheba finishes fourth.
1989: Sunday Silence places, 8 lengths behind the winner, Easy Goer.
1997: Silver Charm places, a half length behind the winner, Touch Gold.
1998: Real Quiet places, after a photo finish, a nose behind the winner, Victory Gallop.
1999: Charismatic shows, 1½ lengths behind the winner, Lemon Drop Kid, and the second-place horse, Vision and Verse.
2002: War Emblem stumbles at gate, finishes eighth out of 11.
2003: Funny Cide shows, 5 lengths behind the winner, Empire Maker, and 4¼ lengths behind the second-place horse, Ten Most Wanted.
2004: Smarty Jones places, one length behind the winner, Birdstone.

2008: Big Brown, with a cracked hoof, is pulled up in the home stretch, loping to a last-place finish. It is unsure why the horse ran poorly. Scored as a DNF.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2012: I'll Have Another; has won the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes, and has an opportunity to take the first triple crown in 34 years.
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#17
Posted: 5/22/2012 3:38:38 PM
This notice is to inform you that one or more of your horses has worked out.

Liaison (3-Year-Old Colt)

Date: May 22, 2012
Track: BETFAIR HOLLYWOOD PARK
Distance: Five Furlongs
Time: 1.00:00 Handily
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: All Weather Track
Rank: 6/28 - See the day's workouts




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#18
Posted: 5/22/2012 4:32:29 PM
Ruler on Ice was strictly a closer and at 24-1 he took care of any doubters in the Belmont Stakes.

Reminds me of someone else,  ehh Kid.

Anything can happen.
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#19
Posted: 5/22/2012 5:08:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vetdrm:

Ruler on Ice was strictly a closer and at 24-1 he took care of any doubters in the Belmont Stakes.

Reminds me of someone else,  ehh Kid.

Anything can happen.



The wet track was mostly responsible for Ruler On Ice winning though.  He had run well on wet tracks before if I remember correctly.

By the way, if the track comes up wet at the Belmont, I'll Have Another's worst race was on a sloppy track, just for anybody that didn't know that.         

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#20
Posted: 5/22/2012 8:55:03 PM
Nice observation hound

Javier Castellano to ride Dullahan.

Johnny V. on Rags
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#21
Posted: 5/22/2012 11:37:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vetdrm:

Nice observation hound

Javier Castellano to ride Dullahan.

Johnny V. on Rags
thanks for the info vetdrm...surprised romans gave up on KD must be pretty bad....he;s about to blackball his own self out of the sport....if dullahan works ok over big sandy still thinks he runs huge with castellano  up...he is one of the top 5 jocks going right now so all systems say go if dullahans works ok .......
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#22
Posted: 5/23/2012 6:55:28 AM
Dullahan is overrated and will be way overbet in the Belmont especially with Castellano on board. 0 dirt wins and the derby could not of set up better for him and he still ran 3rd. His connections should put him on turf where he belongs.

Alpha is my longshot, he gets Ramon back and is bred for distance. i dont think he was ready for the Derby came out of the Wood with problems missed some training time and just didnt seem ready, not to mention that donkey Maragh rode him in the derby. 

Early 5 im looking at

Alpha
Union Rags
Ill Have Another
Street Life
Rousing Sermon


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#23
Posted: 5/23/2012 11:35:49 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by angrybarber:

Dullahan is overrated and will be way overbet in the Belmont especially with Castellano on board. 0 dirt wins and the derby could not of set up better for him and he still ran 3rd. His connections should put him on turf where he belongs.

I completely agree and here is my reasoning:

in most recent history, the Bluegrass has been won by fairly deep closers. Those horses often have become wiseguy horses in the Derby and REAL wiseguy horses in the long Belmont.

But looking back, how have they done? Last year Brilliant Speed was a definite wiseguy horse who finished 3rd. I do believe the Belmont results from last year were skewed due to the horrible track. Two years ago, people liked Stately Victor and Make Music for Me. Neither did well.

I already posted that Bluegrass winners haven't finished in the top 3 in the Derby in many many years and I believe it is similar in the Belmont too, outside of last year. This isn't even considering that Keeneland is synthetic as of recent years.

We pay attention to the Bluegrass results because it favors closers and is a late prep, but until I see a better pattern for the results, I will ignore them. If you throw the Bluegrass out, is Dullahan's 3rd place Derby finish enough to make him a main player? I will not have Dullahan any better than 3rd on my tickets.

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#24
Posted: 5/23/2012 1:24:03 PM
ill have another for d sweep..dont over think it
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#25
Posted: 5/23/2012 1:36:19 PM
Barber - I initially had the same feeling about Alpha. The only two times the horse ran poor was shipping to Churchill. He's been in the exacta in all his NY races, and gets Ramon back aboard.

Then again, the Wood form has been absolute crapola, with Gem and Alpha flopping in the Derby, Teeth of the Dog and Tiger Walk getting destroyed in the Preakness, My Adonis who couldn't even win a listed stakes at Pimlico, and Street Life and The Lumber Guy who failed in the Peter Pan.

Dullahan might run 2nd by default if Alpha flops again even though it's clear the horse belongs on Poly/Turf.

I really don't see any horse in this race beating I'll Have Another, but I said the same thing in 2004 and 2008 and we all know how that turned out.
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