Posted:
#1
one play today. planned on passing the whole weekend but I took a peak at the drf race of the day and I feel it is playable. 0.75/0.75 unit play for me. my horse is 8/1 ML and field size is solid even with two scratches. two of these fellas scratched to swing for the fences in the Preakness. hopefully my horse stays up there at 6/1ish or higher. larry jones' chalkie could be tough but I will swing against. not sure about those two races he came out of all of the horses hitting the board have come back to run quite poorly. not a rock solid chalkie to me. a few others have higher figs but various red flags for me (off turf, fading late, etc.) so I will swing against.
race 9
G2 Peter Pan 3YO 1 1/8 Miles Dirt
11 WP
Recency - no real edge here on Recency though no red flag. a few of these are coming in off solid races and working well. this 11 is 2nd off a break and comes off a good effort where he showed good late energy in a big field at Keeneland. comments were "in tight, 5W, kept at bay". he followed that up with a 6F Breezing morning move on 5/6 in 1:12.2 on this Belmont strip. When I look at Recency I want to see last time raced, frequency of races, the drills/fitness/health, and most importantly the quality of the recent races. On paper this horse appears physically fit, healthy, and willing to give a solid effort today.
Late Speed - As I said a few others have higher overall speed figs and on dirt (the 11 has only run on the green and polytrack). I realize this. However, this 11 may be quite competitive in terms of Late Speed. I have to project here since this is a new distance. One horse has a win at this distance on dirt (against maidens) and a few have tried but weakened late. some have higher overall figs but have weakened at 8.5 furlongs. What I like about the late speed on the 11 is that in every race he shows a willingness and desire to pass horses late in the lane. he doesn't quit he keeps coming late. his final quarter splits in last two races stack up well. overall speed figs measure up decently here (81, 86, and 86 in last three).
Pattern - I like this pattern. he came back off a layoff as a 3YO and tried a new surface, moved up in class, and matched his highest beyer fig from his 2YO season. today he is 2nd off the bench and certainly could improve and run his best race yet. some others may have shown us all they have already. i like the fact that even though he clearly has turf ability Clement moves him up in class, out in distance, and over to dirt for the first time. confident move. this pattern tells me that if he handles the dirt he could be sitting on his best effort to date. no guarantees but in this game you have to project.
Speed/Pace/Stamina/Class/Distance/Surface - Surface is the obvious question. If he doesn't handle it he won't win. I like him here based on distance and stamina. many of the others look a bit vulnerable late to me. On Class he stacks up well in my view. Others have appeared in higher level races but have been far from solid. On pace I think he should be ok. Note I do not rely on computerized pace figs. I try to project where the horse will be today and how comfortable he can be to get in position to win. this horse should sit four or five lengths off and get in a good position around the turn (this is a one turn race even though it is 9F). A little notch below on overall speed figs but again I am projecting forward.
J/T Combo - Ramon rides a lot of chalk of course but he is quite competent overall. Clement and Ramon click at a 34% clip. Clement is known for turf but 25% on dirt as well. Clement is 22% 2nd off a 45-180 day break. No big edge here but certainly in the hands of capable players.
Breeding - Relevant here in so much as a new distance for most of these 3YO fellas. The War Fronts are generally better on turf but plenty of them have had success on dirt as well. Dam's Sire is El Prado which should help with Stamina and distance. No real edge but not a red flag.
Should be a good race. Hopefully he gets in a good position and brings a solid effort down the lane. Maybe a couple others run away but I'm not convinced the favs can steal this race at this distance. We'll see.
Good luck
race 9
G2 Peter Pan 3YO 1 1/8 Miles Dirt
11 WP
Recency - no real edge here on Recency though no red flag. a few of these are coming in off solid races and working well. this 11 is 2nd off a break and comes off a good effort where he showed good late energy in a big field at Keeneland. comments were "in tight, 5W, kept at bay". he followed that up with a 6F Breezing morning move on 5/6 in 1:12.2 on this Belmont strip. When I look at Recency I want to see last time raced, frequency of races, the drills/fitness/health, and most importantly the quality of the recent races. On paper this horse appears physically fit, healthy, and willing to give a solid effort today.
Late Speed - As I said a few others have higher overall speed figs and on dirt (the 11 has only run on the green and polytrack). I realize this. However, this 11 may be quite competitive in terms of Late Speed. I have to project here since this is a new distance. One horse has a win at this distance on dirt (against maidens) and a few have tried but weakened late. some have higher overall figs but have weakened at 8.5 furlongs. What I like about the late speed on the 11 is that in every race he shows a willingness and desire to pass horses late in the lane. he doesn't quit he keeps coming late. his final quarter splits in last two races stack up well. overall speed figs measure up decently here (81, 86, and 86 in last three).
Pattern - I like this pattern. he came back off a layoff as a 3YO and tried a new surface, moved up in class, and matched his highest beyer fig from his 2YO season. today he is 2nd off the bench and certainly could improve and run his best race yet. some others may have shown us all they have already. i like the fact that even though he clearly has turf ability Clement moves him up in class, out in distance, and over to dirt for the first time. confident move. this pattern tells me that if he handles the dirt he could be sitting on his best effort to date. no guarantees but in this game you have to project.
Speed/Pace/Stamina/Class/Distance/Surface - Surface is the obvious question. If he doesn't handle it he won't win. I like him here based on distance and stamina. many of the others look a bit vulnerable late to me. On Class he stacks up well in my view. Others have appeared in higher level races but have been far from solid. On pace I think he should be ok. Note I do not rely on computerized pace figs. I try to project where the horse will be today and how comfortable he can be to get in position to win. this horse should sit four or five lengths off and get in a good position around the turn (this is a one turn race even though it is 9F). A little notch below on overall speed figs but again I am projecting forward.
J/T Combo - Ramon rides a lot of chalk of course but he is quite competent overall. Clement and Ramon click at a 34% clip. Clement is known for turf but 25% on dirt as well. Clement is 22% 2nd off a 45-180 day break. No big edge here but certainly in the hands of capable players.
Breeding - Relevant here in so much as a new distance for most of these 3YO fellas. The War Fronts are generally better on turf but plenty of them have had success on dirt as well. Dam's Sire is El Prado which should help with Stamina and distance. No real edge but not a red flag.
Should be a good race. Hopefully he gets in a good position and brings a solid effort down the lane. Maybe a couple others run away but I'm not convinced the favs can steal this race at this distance. We'll see.
Good luck
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