Betting on Horses

betting horses successfully takes a lot of work. One of the theories that I have for why horse racing isn't popular with younger people is because it takes a lot of work to learn how to handicap and to bet right. A lot of people just don't want to invest the time.

Yes it's tough capping but in what other sport can you bet a buck & win thousands?

Younger potential customers live in the "give it to me now" generation & want that constant action rather than wait 20 t0 25 minutes in between races. There are alot of problems in the industry (cheating being one of them) but the rush of capping a race & seeing it turn out the way you expected is an adrenaline rush like no other I know. Except for sex of course...

Here's my .02, I've been playing the ponies for exactly 40 yrs.and I would rather put $2 bucks on a horse than bet a sporting event. I believe I've put a lot of effort into learning the game during that time and I DO profit at it. Not $90,000 in 6 months as others here claim without posting actual picks. But my 30 yr. mortgage was paid off in half that time due to horse profits. My job earnings paid the mortgage payment and I added 1/2 my winnings to each payment.

Betting and beating this game is not brain surgery IMO. If you know what numbers affect the outcome and I believe I do, most times? I have a method I use everyday and go through each race in a methodical manner and derive a single number for each entrant in the race.

I'll continue this later in more detail.

THERE IS, in my opinion, another factor that is going to keep younger people away from the game. Many of those who went to college are locked into student loans for the next 20 years, which really limits their discressionary spending...thus, they might have enough money to gamble on anything, let alone horses.

A lot of younger people who graduate from high school and didn't go to college others who don't  have student loans just can' t find very many well paying jobs that have a career path that allows them to have extra income to gamble.

Quitters never win

Ok, let's continue on here. If you don't or can't invest the the time you won't win a dime! You have to treat horse racing as a job not a hobby to win consistantly. The best way to learn is by doing it on paper at first not reading a book written by some guy that can't do it so he teaches. Now let's move on to some absolute truths about the game.

1. The horse that runs fastest wins every race. Yeah, this sounds corney but it's true. Speed kills always so figureing out when the speed kicks in is the puzzle.

2. The favorite WILL win 33% of the time and the 2nd choice wins 17% of the time. Therefore half the races run in N.A. offer little or no value on the win end.

3. Some races are a guessing game and should be avoided. Such as 2 and most times 3 yr. old races. Yes, the Triple Crown included. Since these youngsters can improve overnight and most times the current form of these steeds is well hidden. Any race for NW of 2 races, 1x races and any race where the current form of 2 or more horses is unclear. Never tried the distance, off a layoff or changing surfaces are some examples.

That's enough for today.

I stand corrected. MikeyP did throw out a nice winner and ex the other day! Kudos to Mikey.

Now back to the task at hand. I recommend you develop a method by which you handicap every race. I always start with recent activity. Then go with the followng in exactly the same order for each race. But you can use whatever works for you. Distance, Surface, Speed, Class, Jockey, Trainer and finally the odds. I use all these factors to arrive at a single number/rating for every horse in the race. I simply cross out te horses with no chance as I go through my steps. So the highest number would be my selection only if the odds and the difference was 5 pts. higher than the next choice and so on. This is really the reason I post 4 selections because I have no idea if the odds would point to my first choice with less than a 5 pt. differential over my 2nd or even the 3rd & 4th selections. 

Final thought is just to get into the habit of capping the same way everytime until it becomes imbedded in your brain and you do it without even thinking what your next step is.

JMO here and there a million others out there, but this works for me. I hope this helps?

Race 1 @ Calder today 7/14 is a prime example of what I'm talking about. A race for NW2LT

My picks were 6 3 4 2, it finished 2 4 6 3. Yeah, I had all 4 runners not in exact order but I had them. Did I bet the race? Hell no. Why, it was a NW2LT for one and the payouts for $2 were:

4.40 win

15.20 ex

33.60 tri

113.80 super

Risk vs. Reward

G-3: Your explanation of this scenario illustrates the point exactly.

 Most of the people who bet races, even some who have played for a few years, have absolutely no clue about what you said even means and probably won't take the time to learn. I'd like to know how many guys on this forum (not the regulars, of course) even know what  NW2LT means. For most, that's deep thinking and many of the newbies won't put in the time for "Risk vs. Reward."

Two other factors that need to be considered in your handicapping are the sex and age of the horse and most importantly read the conditions of the race.

Some factors that I pretty much ignore are weight, pace and running style. I can see where the last two could effect the race but I don't bother with it.

Anyone who wants to learn how to properly handicap horses needs to pay attenton to stuff like this....it's the little things; the details that make a good handicapper. The more facts you can gather to get an edge and make an informed decision will put you over the top.