From the comments I have seen in the earlier post by Kursch, Vet, Atlas and Candy, this looks like a wide open affair in many respects.  I do like the fact that there are more than 5 horses in the r ace!

Mandela’s Setsuko and Neighbornextdoor are the ML faves, but it seems to me like the track handicapper picked the lines out of a hat for this one.

A few of these have gone the 1-1/8 distance with #4 Outlaw Man, #5 Setsuko, # and #3 Straighttomidnight having the experience. However, I also took a close look at those who have gone the 1-1/16 on the syn and were pulling away, and that for me would be #5 Setsuko, #9 Alphie’s Bet and #10 Neighbornextdoor….. tough one, but,  I will give the edge to:

#10 Neighbornextsdoor……tough call for me, as this race is truly wide open. However, my pick is based on the pace as none of these seems to neither want nor be capable of grabbing a lead. My guess is that Mikey Smith tucks this guy inside quickly and stays within the leaders by a few lengths, then guns him in the stretch. This could be a fight to the finish, but if there is any kind of pace here, I think Neighbor might win by a few lengths.

#4 Outlaw Man.…goes from the grass to this one, and why not? I think McPeek has no high expectations for this guy as he looks to be a career turfer, so why not take a shot against this bunch and see what sticks?  Kenny is 36% wins turf to syn, the horse proved he liked the distance last out, and that one helped to build up his heart, so I expect he will be up enough to close this one in style. Gomez rides, and that’s all good too.

#5 Setsuko….this one could be the best of the best as Bejarano takes off the #10 to ride for Mandella. This horse can close with relish, and you know Richard will have him ready. Trainer-jockey are 30%wins in 23 races, so the click is there. My beef with the horse is that he has been somewhat of an underachiever. He couldn’t beat The Program (PP #1 in this race) in a 4-horse field (finished third), and has lost to lesser.  I am a bit puzzled as to why Mandella put him on the grass last out, unless he was trying to build him up a bit, or else it tells me that he isn’t sure that this guy is good enough to run with Lucky, Esky, Rule or the other bests.

#2 Kettle River….looks to be improving, but I have a bit of a question with the distance. However, if there is little pace and he stays close, which is likely, he could be the winner. Horse is in nice form for this, and will compete. Trainer Hardy is just 9% in wins on syn is bothersome, but Blanc has been great on him.

#1 The Program…what’s positive for me here is that this is just the sort of spot that Baffert loves…taking one of his “B” players and throwing him in a spot where he can win. The post isn’t helping the cause, but the horse is in form and Garcia and Baffert are 31% WINS IN 71 STARTS in 2009-10.

#9 Alphie’s Bet……a fair amount to like here, as the horse has close and he ran with the Bob Lewis winner, Caracortado. However, he seems to lack real speed and the trainer isn’t real good on the synthetic. In addition, for me, the parade passed Solis about 5 years ago.

MY PICKS:

#10 Neighborhextdoor to Win and Place

$15 ex key: 10/4, 5

$8 ex key: 10/1, 2

$4 tri whl: 10/1, 2, 4, 5/1, 2, 4,5,10

$1 tri whl: 4,10/1,2,4,5,10/1,2,4,5,9,10

GL TO ALL

As always....Nice write up.

I love this time of year.

Getting ready to dive into the form today.

Best of Luck.

#1 The Program 7/2..Fast w/ a strong condition line and well drawn. Most likely key

#2 Kettle River  6-1..Wanted to key this one but gut tells me he might be short today. Well drawn.

#4 Outlaw Man  10-1..odds pay here but tough to key ... will include

#6 Wolf Trail  15-1..another odds play that can be included underneath.

#8 El Mirage  KIng  20-1...purely an oddds play include here at 20-1 .

I TOOK THE LIBERTY OF MOVING BOBOID'S COMMENTS HERE....GOOD STUFF:

ADDING: $6 EX STRAIGHT 4-10

$4 EX WHL: 4/1,2,5

Quote Originally Posted by vetdrm:

Santa Anita Saturday races canceled due to track conditions

Bummer, execelent write up Mike.

this from drf.com:

Santa Anita will do the same thing this time, according to racing secretary Rick Hammerle. The Sham will be brought back next Saturday, March 6, and be part of a card that already includes the Santa Anita Handicap, Kilroe Mile, and Santa Anita Oaks.

How screwed up is this????????

from today's drf.com

Sunday back-up plan for Sham

By Steve Andersen

The $150,000 Sham Stakes was scheduled to be run at Santa Anita Saturday, but the race also was carded as Sunday's 10th race out of concern that Saturday's 11-race program will be washed out by expected rain.

The Sham Stakes was originally scheduled for Feb. 27, but was postponed to Saturday when wet weather led to the cancellation of the Feb. 27 program. As one of the track's leading preps for the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby on April 3, the Sham is a race that needs to be run this weekend to allow 3-year-olds to maintain schedules, track officials said.

Because the Sham is not certain to be run on Sunday, it will not be part of multi-race wagers, such as the pick six, pick four, or last pick three.

* Bo Derek and David Israel have been reappointed to the California Horse Racing Board by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, the governor's office announced on Thursday. Israel is the vice chairman of the racing board.

AND, a total re-draw!

Sham S. (G3)

1 1/8 Miles (All Weather Track) | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $150,000

Prg. #	PP	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Wt.	Claim $	Equip.	Med.	ML
1	1	Marcello	Valdivia J Jr	Baffert Bob	116			L	15-1
2	2	The Program	Garcia M	Baffert Bob	118			L	5-1
3	3	Outlaw Man	Gomez G K	McPeek Kenneth G	116			L	6-1
4	4	El Mirage King	Baze T C	Han Moon S	116			L	20-1
5	5	Boulder Creek	Espinoza V	Dollase Craig	116			L	12-1
6	6	Kettle River	Blanc B	Harty Eoin	118			L	6-1
7	7	Setsuko	Bejarano R	Mandella Richard	116			L	7-2
8	8	Wolf Tail	Sutherland C	O'Neill Doug	116			L	20-1
9	9	Nextdoorneighbor	Smith M E	Machowsky Michael	116			L	3-1
10	10	Alphie's Bet	Solis A	Barba Alexis	116

 

A total re-draw

1) MARCELLO

2) THE PROGRAM

3) OUTLAW MAN

4) EL MIRAGE KING

5) BOULDER CREEK

6) KETTLE MAN

7) SETSUKO

8) WOLF CREEK

9) NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR

10) ALPHIE'S BET

MY "RE-PICKS":

#9 NEIGHBORNEXTDOOR TO WIN AND PLACE

$15 EX KEY: 9/3,7

$8 EX KEY: 9/2,6

$4 tri whl: 9/2,3,6,7/2,3,6,7,10

$1 tri whl: 3,9/2,3,6,7,9/2,3,6,7,9,10

GL TO ALL

The extra wk provided the field should help Kettle River the most , as he was able to get an extra drill . Will watch the board. Setsuko and Nextdoorneighbor appear talented but dont offer enough value, cant argue w/ those that like their chances..GL