Posted:
#1
Ok one man's opinion. Not saying I'm right but I'm bitter. Not a bitter bettor. Because I wagered small potatoes on the race anyway. I'm a bitter handicapper and fan. The following are my thoughts about this derby.
First of all the path Mine That Bird took to get to Churchill is suspicious. Suspicious in that the connections basically hid him in New Mexico. His two year old form doesn't make him impossible to win the Derby, it's those two Sunland Races. They are awful. They would make him a long shot in a N1X at Suffolk Downs on May Wednesday. Did the connections stiff him in New Mexico? Say what you will but the horse was getting action in the windows. IMO he should have been the longest shot on the board. He should have been all of 99-1. If you came up with that horse you got screwed with that mutuel.
Somebody knew though. The horse was getting play. He was lower than four or five horses in the doubles and he was under 50-1 for most of the betting. Someone from somewhere knew this horse was better than what he had showed.
I think it's fair for us to question the Sunland Beyers. Even Advice came out of Sunland with subpar figs. Don't be surprised if they go back and take a longer look at the making of those figures. Not saying they'll be 100s, but maybe they should have been upgraded. The DRF needs to be acountable somewhat to check up on those figs.
Please don't tell me he freaked in the mud either. Yes I know it happens, but I'm not buying it. Most horses who like the slop show talent on the other surfaces. The mud (IMO) was not responsible for that effort.Did Friesan Fire freak in his mud race improving five points? Freaking would have been running an 87. Running a 105 is beyond comprehension. Assuming your not in a barn wise in the ways of the needle.
Like others have said Derby 135 was not good for horse racing. The horse racing industry is in huge trouble with synthetic surfaces amongst other things (but you knew that already). As D Wayne Lukas said, synthetic surfaces will put Gamblers Anonymous out of business because bettors will just give up trying to figure it all out. He claims they'll all go back to dirt at somepoint. I pray he is right. The Derby yesterday didn't help. You don't bring the casual bettor in with such amazingly unpredictable results. Or better yet an impossible result.
Let's call it what it is. This sport is about the gamblers. With out the gamblers the horses don't race, the trainers don't train, the jockeys don't ride and the owners don't own. If this industry keeps changing surfaces, fighting over who broadcasts races amongst all the other BS (like yesterday), increasing take out........
Things are only gonna get worse, and they are pretty bad right now.
On a final note. I wouldn't be surprised if they dig up mud on this derby winner and it's connections. It's all fishy to me. Just as the pick six scandal was fishy with a 1/2/3/4/all/all ticket, this is fishy with this horses path to the race and poor 3YO form. The people at DRF are not dumbells. Steve Crist is a genius. I would bet my next deuce that he has a few reporters sniffing around the barns looking for a story. I'm of the belief they find something. Again, I'm not a "fixed" kind of guy. But I am sticking with "shady."
HB
0
other than that, great article bull
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