This year's Kentucky Derby slowly becoming a paceless one

Question

Well guys im starting to think now that the Derby won&#x27;t be getting that sizzling pace anymore. With the Pamplemousse out and now Old Fashioned, we will not be getting that fast derby pace everyone thought just a couple weeks ago. Any thoughts, I think now you might even see Quality Road on the lead providing his quarter crack issues don&#x27;t get pop up again.

bimmer330 · Answer

Well guys im starting to think now that the Derby won&#x27;t be getting that sizzling pace anymore. With the Pamplemousse out and now Old Fashioned, we will not be getting that fast derby pace everyone thought just a couple weeks ago. Any thoughts, I think now you might even see Quality Road on the lead providing his quarter crack issues don&#x27;t get pop up again.

bimmer330 · Answer

Here&#x27;s something that just popped in my mind, why not put the filly Rachel Alexandra in it. I think this would add some pizzazz to the derby among with some early speed.

mikeyp1 · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by bimmer330] &#xD;&#xA;Well guys im starting to think now that the Derby won&#x27;t be getting that sizzling pace anymore. With the Pamplemousse out and now Old Fashioned, we will not be getting that fast derby pace everyone thought just a couple weeks ago. Any thoughts, I think now you might even see Quality Road on the lead providing his quarter crack issues don&#x27;t get pop up again. &#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;YOU MIGHT BE RIGHT ON THIS, BIM. If that&#x27;&#x27;s the scenario, you might see another Giacomo standing in the winner&#x27;s circle with the race breaking down early and often.

nc1capper · Answer

lookin forward to the festivites,,nice info, ty

Kervaine · Answer

Funny you should mention that Mikey. After hearing the news about Quality Road and watching the last two Derby preps I told my buddies that this is looking like a Giacomo year. Which means some great tri and super payouts for some cagey/lucky handicappers like us...

bimmer330 · Answer

I can honestly say about 13 horses can win this year&#x27;s derby, it is so wide open. It will take some serious money betting trifectas and supers in this race.

JimRockford · Answer

what odds do you think the favorite goes off at? &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;who would you tab the favorite?&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;anyone holding any live futures out there?&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;WIDE OPEN race=HUGE PAYOUTS&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Go Derby

bimmer330 · Answer

im guessing the favorite goes off at 5-1 morning line and my guess would be I Want Revenge off his spectacular Wood win with Quality Road a close second.

DannoDanger · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by JimRockford] &#xD;&#xA;what odds do you think the favorite goes off at? &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;who would you tab the favorite?&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;anyone holding any live futures out there?&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;WIDE OPEN race=HUGE PAYOUTS&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Go Derby&#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;I Want Revenge is going to be the favorite.  If Quality Road ends up not running, I think he&#x27;ll be around 5/2 - 3/1.  If Quality Road is in the race, I.W.R. will probably be in the 9/2 range.  You will get great value on alot of good horses.  I&#x27;m anxious to see what Musket Man will be.  I like that horse alot.

bimmer330 · Answer

Ya i like Musket Man also as well as General Quarters. Better not toss out these 2 Tampa shippers in any exotics.

NumberPower · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by DannoDanger] &#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;I Want Revenge is going to be the favorite.  If Quality Road ends up not running, I think he&#x27;ll be around 5/2 - 3/1.  If Quality Road is in the race, I.W.R. will probably be in the 9/2 range.  You will get great value on alot of good horses.  I&#x27;m anxious to see what Musket Man will be.  I like that horse alot.  &#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]i dont think u see 5/2 no matter what, but as you see the replay 1000x of the Wood he is the likely fav. I agree that price to be about 4-1 and I dont like him at all. &#xD;&#xA;Yea he spotted the field a few lengths and he had to negotiate some bumping ,which is always impressive for a young horse, he was superior to his competition coming in and he sure wasnt pulling away from them at the end. To my eye he was all out and that huge Gotham win takes its toll.

fatroll07 · Answer

how in the hell do you guys figure giacomo year. This is why I don't even read covers horse racing forum. The year giacomo won their were numerous speed horses. The fractions in the derby were 22, 45, 109. Spanish Chestnut could only run with the lead and he had proven prior to the derby he could run fractions of 22 46 and 110 guaranteeing a fast pace for the closers. Greeleys galaxy wanted to be close, bellamy road wanted to be on the lead, high fly had proven he could run 22,45, 109. Going wild could run sub 110. Buzzard bay had won previous on the front end. How the fuck do figure we are going to have similiar fractions in this derby to the point where a P.O.S horse like giacomo could come closing on the torrid pace and win. Giacomo put up a huge 100 beyer to win the race. What a peice of shit derby that was. The only good horse in the field was afleex alex who didnt fire in the derby.
-People are saying that this derby is one of the deepest fields ever, how are you going to even compare it to the giacomo year, i dont want to even think about that peice of shit derby.
-No speed- bottomline- how is a dead closer like giacomo going to steal this race over horses like IWR, Quality Road, Pioneer of the Nile. These are real time racehorses. Top notch. All four have nice tactical speed. They will be close to a 46 and change half mile, 111 6 furlong and have plenty in the tank when they turn for home.
Bank on it. Enough with this rubbish. Giacomo year ha! I didnt even mention mcquarters and hee would even shit on giacomo

fatroll07 · Answer

In terms of odds IWR will be the favorite. I believe Dunkirk yes Dunkirk will vie for favoritism. The public sucks his horse off. He doesn't even need to go to stud people suck this horse off that much. He was favored in second pool. 12-1 in third pool and their was a 50-50 chance he would even make the derby field. He was favored over quality road in the fla derby and he had only beaten an n1x field. On top of that GP had the biggest front end bias in years so QR had a huge advantage. Dunkirk still went off favorite. He is trained by pletcher, he is 4 million dollar horse, gomez may opt to jump on... fuck if gomez jumps on people will suck him even harder.

fatroll07 · Answer

The loss of old fashioned and pamplemousse made the derby a lot tougher for me. I was going to toss quality road because he has only seen 2 turns once in his life. When I watch him run I don't think he finishes that strong. He hasnt faced any adversity, if their was any pace horses in this race im pretty sure he would have got caught up in fractions too fast to handle the mile and quarter against these kinds of horses. Now he will be closer too a slow pace and may be able to hold on. Im still going to try and beat him

NumberPower · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by fatroll07] In terms of odds IWR will be the favorite. I believe Dunkirk yes Dunkirk will vie for favoritism. The public sucks his horse off. He doesn&#x27;t even need to go to stud people suck this horse off that much. He was favored in second pool. 12-1 in third pool and their was a 50-50 chance he would even make the derby field. He was favored over quality road in the fla derby and he had only beaten an n1x field. On top of that GP had the biggest front end bias in years so QR had a huge advantage. Dunkirk still went off favorite. He is trained by pletcher, he is 4 million dollar horse, gomez may opt to jump on... fuck if gomez jumps on people will suck him even harder.&#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]If Dunkirk goes Gomez definately opts for him.no question.

XtremeSelectee · Answer

fatroll, I think you are right on with saying that we won&#x27;t see a 50-1 horse win this thing.  Giacomo won the Derby because of the blistering pace, not a lack of it.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;This Derby does look wide-open at this point though, which means there will be plenty of value throughout.  The exotics are where you will find the most value.  We probably won&#x27;t see a $864,000&#x2B; Super like we did when Giacomo torched peoples tickets, but plenty of options means plenty of wagers.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Can&#x27;t wait...

fatroll07 · Answer

IWR had a pretty slow workout. Want to see what the clockers say about it. Maybe they were cautious because of the wet track.Talamo gave I Want Revenge an easy half-mile breeze :50. Fractions of :12 2/5, :24 2/5, :36 4/5, :50 and out 5 F in 1:04 3/5.
-Number power as much as I can't see how gomez could jump of POTN/bob baffert combo why hasn't he committed yet? Obvious- you are correct he wants to ride Dakirk

fatroll07 · Answer

here is a link to keep up with some of the derby activity.. Probably will be back closer to derby time. https://twitter.com/derbyoaks

rawm · Answer

fatrollim assuming the reason why people are saying this race is setting up for a closer is probably due to the fact that the best horses are gonna be on the lead. huge possibility that they will tire each other out and a giacomo type of horse could win it. throughout the years of my derby experience, everytime i thought the pace was gonna be slow it was fast and vice verse. gl

bimmer330 · Answer

Seems like u lost alot of money on Giacomo fatroll.

fatroll07 · Answer

bimmer ya i lost "that" derby, only to pick the winner in the next 3 consecutive derbys. I have bet against giacomo almost every race since and he has gone a wonderful 1 for 8. Each of those races he has gone off at around 5-1 or lower. Thanks Giacomo for being the worst derby winner in the last 8 years.

"fatroll

im assuming the reason why people are saying this race is setting up for a closer is probably due to the fact that the best horses are gonna be on the lead. huge possibility that they will tire each other out and a giacomo type of horse could win it. throughout the years of my derby experience, everytime i thought the pace was gonna be slow it was fast and vice verse. "

Last year no pace 23,47,111
two years ago hard spun went 22,46,111- he only went 22 to fight for position and then slowed down. not much pace again but hard spun was commited to the lead

Which year would you be refering too that you didnt think their would be much pace? Tell me which of the favorites besides Quality road want to fight for the lead? IWR will not run sub 23,47... Papa clem wants nothing to do with a pace sub 24,48 POTN has been forcing the pace because there is nothing to run at out west and he is still a baby. I dont see which of the favorites are going to fight for this lead? None of them need the lead really at all. Lionheart was a straight speed horse in that race and he ran 46,111

Giacomo won when they went 22,45,109 $#@$! that is ridiculous, To think you are going to get fractions like that are bogus. Every race in derby history with ridiculous fractions there are speed horses to back it up like the year with giacomo- 4/5 speed horses

mikeyp1 · Answer

FAT...slow down for a minute.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;My reference to Giacomo, and my guess that Brim&#x27;s comments were as well, are to the race breaking down...whether it goes at a slow pace or the ridiculous Spanish Chestnut pace.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA; I think there are so many inexperienced horses in this field who  still haven&#x27;t learned how to run up the track--including DUNKIRK, by the way, that anything can happen, including a 50-1 shot or better winning it. If it comes up horribly wet, like it did on Giacomo day, that could make it even worse.

Kervaine · Answer

Fatroll...First of all maybe you should ask what the references were about in regards to it being a Giacomo year instead of grandstanding and berating people. That&#x27;s just ignorant.Secondly, I find it laughable that you talk about never reading the forum here and yet you obviously do and take great pleasure in blathering yourself.Lastly, just because there are not a lot of speedsters or need the lead types doesn&#x27;t mean that the pace will be soft. There are 6 forward running stalkers out of the known field so far including; Desert Party, Pioneer of the Nile, Friesian Fire, Quality Road, Mafaaz, and Regal Ransom. Someone has to have the lead and whether whoever that is tries to push ahead and steal it or not the top tier Jocks involved are not going to let anyone coast. We may very well find that the pace is faster than any of the individual races that these horses have come out of. So in that regard I could envision a breakdown and win by a closer. But the comment on Giacomo was originally made to indicate the likelihood of an up-in-the-air, big payout race the likes of which we got the year Giacomo won.

fatroll07 · Answer

Mikeyp,My reference to Giacomo, and my guess that Brim&#x27;s comments were as&#xD;&#xA;well, are to the race breaking down...whether it goes at a slow pace or&#xD;&#xA;the ridiculous Spanish Chestnut pace.- how in the hell is the race going to break down if their is no pace? I mean please explain this to me? all the top horses as I stated above have nice tactical speed(minus dunkirk) if their is a slow pace they are already faster then the shitty horses and they will have a full tank for the stretch run. I cant figure out how a race will break down if their is no pace, ya a horse could steal it.. a horse like quality road who is probably top 2 choice. Giacomo year??? I will repeat that was a peice of shit derby, i knew that prior to the race.If it rains obviously shit changes but I&#x27;m not here handicapping the derby for a wet track. I still dont think a bomb horse will hit, some horse will probably wire the field if track comes up wet.Fatroll...First of all maybe you should ask what the references&#xD;&#xA;were about in regards to it being a Giacomo year instead of&#xD;&#xA;grandstanding and berating people. That&#x27;s just ignorant.Kervaine- I understood what they were saying. Everything I have wrote does not indicate only for a fast pace. If you took the time to read instead of just type I stated if the pace is slow it will PLAY INTO the top choices even more because they are rateable and have high tactical speeds. This will decrease the chance of a long shot even more. - dumb ass potn is not a stalker. Ask bob baffert his trainer. keep handicapping like that and you will be in trouble. He wants to make one run but their was nothing to run at out west. Regal ransom may go to the lead but thats about it. and kervaine... I know i&#x27;m the best on the big days.. Bottomline.

rawm · Answer

you like fatroll?im loving Dunkirk

This year's Kentucky Derby slowly becoming a paceless one

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