did he get it during the Preakness? or did it happen during training? THis history of his hoof problems will again have me on the others in the race. He got me in the KY derby, he got me in the Preakness, I think I will get him in the Belmont with one of the other runners. ||thumbs_up.gif' border=0>
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
did he get it during the Preakness? or did it happen during training? THis history of his hoof problems will again have me on the others in the race. He got me in the KY derby, he got me in the Preakness, I think I will get him in the Belmont with one of the other runners. ||thumbs_up.gif' border=0>
dice...how many other horses that have won the 1st two legs of The Trip have also been hailed as "cant lose" ???
All 10 of them since 1978.
They all look great after winning the first two you dope.
FYI.
I like Robbie and Denis Of Cork in The Belmont.
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dice...how many other horses that have won the 1st two legs of The Trip have also been hailed as "cant lose" ???
All 10 of them since 1978.
They all look great after winning the first two you dope.
FYI.
I like Robbie and Denis Of Cork in The Belmont.
none looked as good as big brown. we have not even seen the best of this horse yet. go lose youre money too jw11. stupid ass
i will be playing superfectas because we all know who the winner will be||an_beatup.gif' border=0>
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none looked as good as big brown. we have not even seen the best of this horse yet. go lose youre money too jw11. stupid ass
i will be playing superfectas because we all know who the winner will be||an_beatup.gif' border=0>
Dutrow just gave BB the kiss of death.
Says he's a 'lock'....and its 'a forgone conclusion' that he wins.
Ouch...I'd love to see the Trip...but,he should know better.
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Dutrow just gave BB the kiss of death.
Says he's a 'lock'....and its 'a forgone conclusion' that he wins.
Ouch...I'd love to see the Trip...but,he should know better.
Of all the recent TC chances, the only one I truly felt wouldn't lose was Smarty Jones and he lost due to jocks ganging up on him. I'm just as confident about Big Brown and the one big difference is that Smarty Jones faced a darn good crop of 3 yo's whereas Big Brown is facing a terrible one. If the hoof is okay, it's all over.
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Of all the recent TC chances, the only one I truly felt wouldn't lose was Smarty Jones and he lost due to jocks ganging up on him. I'm just as confident about Big Brown and the one big difference is that Smarty Jones faced a darn good crop of 3 yo's whereas Big Brown is facing a terrible one. If the hoof is okay, it's all over.
Not so fast on that "easy" exacta bro...yu and diceman should get together on that chalk wager.
Good luck to you tho.
***********************************************
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - David Carroll and Robby Albarado both know what it's like to play a part in major Belmont Stakes drama. Carroll was the everyday exercise rider for the 1989 Belmont winner, Easy Goer, and Albarado was narrowly beaten last year aboard Curlin when Rags to Riches became the first filly to win the race in more than a century.
This year, Carroll and Albarado are teaming together in the Belmont with Denis of Cork, one of the top threats to Big Brown in his quest for the Triple Crown.
"Either we're going to make history," Carroll said Friday at his main base, Churchill Downs, "or we're going to witness it."
Denis of Cork finished third, beaten 8 1/4 lengths, behind Big Brown in the May 3 Kentucky Derby, after which Carroll immediately announced that he would skip the Preakness to set his sights on the Belmont, which will be run for the 140th time Saturday at Belmont Park in Elmont, N.Y.
Carroll said Friday he could not be more satisfied with how Denis of Cork, the Harlan's Holiday colt he trains for William and Suzanne Warren, came out of the Derby and now approaches the Belmont. Denis of Cork figures to be the third wagering choice, behind Big Brown and Casino Drive.
"We're going in there feeling as if it's Big Brown's race to lose," Carroll said. "But if he stubs his toe, and our horse runs his best race, who knows what can happen?"
Carroll, a 48-year-old native of Kildalkey, Ireland, came to the United States in 1984, then worked six years as an exercise rider for Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey before opening his own stable in 1992. He recalls watching the 1989 Belmont, in which Easy Goer foiled the Triple Crown bid of his archrival Sunday Silence, alongside one of McGaughey's assistants at the time, Tony Reinstedler.
"I forget exactly where we were watching from, but I do remember we were going absolutely crazy," Carroll said.
Albarado knows the other side of that Belmont coin. Coming into the 2007 renewal off his stirring victory in the Preakness, Curlin tried to match strides down the stretch with Rags to Riches but just couldn't, losing by a head.
"In hindsight, I thought it was a good race, at least for the sport," Albarado said. "I wasn't too happy with the outcome, but my horse ran really hard in all three of the Triple Crown races, and obviously the rest of the year worked out real well for us," a reference to Curlin earning the 2007 Horse of the Year title.
For Albarado, the last 12-plus months have been magical. By winning his first Triple Crown event, his stature has become elevated, a fact that helped in getting the mount aboard Denis of Cork.
"The last year has been kind of surreal," Albarado said.
Calvin Borel, who also won his first Triple Crown event last year when capturing the Kentucky Derby on Street Sense, rode Denis of Cork in the Derby, but Warren sought out Albarado because he has won nine Grade 1 races at Belmont Park.
"I had no issues with Calvin," Carroll said. "He gave him a great ride in the Derby and brought me back a sound horse. Third was the best the horse could have done that day. Mr. Warren was adamant on getting Robby, based on his Belmont record, and he's the boss."
Albarado has ridden Denis of Cork once, winning the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes on Feb. 18 at Oaklawn Park. That victory capped a three-race winning streak to begin Denis of Cork's career. Following the Southwest he didn't race again until April 5, when he finished fifth in the Grade 2 Illinois Derby at Hawthorne, his Kentucky Derby prep.
"He has a good running style," Albarado said. "He sits back and waits to make his run. Hopefully, Casino Drive will apply some pressure to Big Brown. I guess Big Brown's minor ailments make him vulnerable," a reference to the recent quarter crack that Big Brown evidently has overcome.
"The Belmont's always been a giant killer."
Denis of Cork, he added, "is training really well. He's going into the race really good. We'll just let things materialize. I think he's capable. He's certainly got potential. He showed in the Derby he's got some finish. He was running to the wire."
Denis of Cork was scheduled to have what Carroll described as a "maintenance breeze, something real easy," after the harrow break Monday morning at Churchill. He and the other Churchill-based starter in the Belmont, Macho Again, will be flown to New York by charter Tuesday morning.
Carroll said he was asked recently whether he was training Denis of Cork to run his best race, "or to beat Big Brown."
His reply: "I said, 'When you figure out how Big Brown can be beat, let me in on it.'"
"Obviously, I just have to focus on Denis," Carroll said. "We're going up there hoping this horse's best race is yet to come. He deserves the opportunity. Realistically, we have to go in there thinking that Big Brown will be very tough, but obviously the Belmont is a unique race. The Triple Crown hasn't been won in 30 years, and there's a reason for that. Hopefully, it'll be 31 years or more, and we'll be the reason for that."
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Not so fast on that "easy" exacta bro...yu and diceman should get together on that chalk wager.
Good luck to you tho.
***********************************************
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - David Carroll and Robby Albarado both know what it's like to play a part in major Belmont Stakes drama. Carroll was the everyday exercise rider for the 1989 Belmont winner, Easy Goer, and Albarado was narrowly beaten last year aboard Curlin when Rags to Riches became the first filly to win the race in more than a century.
This year, Carroll and Albarado are teaming together in the Belmont with Denis of Cork, one of the top threats to Big Brown in his quest for the Triple Crown.
"Either we're going to make history," Carroll said Friday at his main base, Churchill Downs, "or we're going to witness it."
Denis of Cork finished third, beaten 8 1/4 lengths, behind Big Brown in the May 3 Kentucky Derby, after which Carroll immediately announced that he would skip the Preakness to set his sights on the Belmont, which will be run for the 140th time Saturday at Belmont Park in Elmont, N.Y.
Carroll said Friday he could not be more satisfied with how Denis of Cork, the Harlan's Holiday colt he trains for William and Suzanne Warren, came out of the Derby and now approaches the Belmont. Denis of Cork figures to be the third wagering choice, behind Big Brown and Casino Drive.
"We're going in there feeling as if it's Big Brown's race to lose," Carroll said. "But if he stubs his toe, and our horse runs his best race, who knows what can happen?"
Carroll, a 48-year-old native of Kildalkey, Ireland, came to the United States in 1984, then worked six years as an exercise rider for Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey before opening his own stable in 1992. He recalls watching the 1989 Belmont, in which Easy Goer foiled the Triple Crown bid of his archrival Sunday Silence, alongside one of McGaughey's assistants at the time, Tony Reinstedler.
"I forget exactly where we were watching from, but I do remember we were going absolutely crazy," Carroll said.
Albarado knows the other side of that Belmont coin. Coming into the 2007 renewal off his stirring victory in the Preakness, Curlin tried to match strides down the stretch with Rags to Riches but just couldn't, losing by a head.
"In hindsight, I thought it was a good race, at least for the sport," Albarado said. "I wasn't too happy with the outcome, but my horse ran really hard in all three of the Triple Crown races, and obviously the rest of the year worked out real well for us," a reference to Curlin earning the 2007 Horse of the Year title.
For Albarado, the last 12-plus months have been magical. By winning his first Triple Crown event, his stature has become elevated, a fact that helped in getting the mount aboard Denis of Cork.
"The last year has been kind of surreal," Albarado said.
Calvin Borel, who also won his first Triple Crown event last year when capturing the Kentucky Derby on Street Sense, rode Denis of Cork in the Derby, but Warren sought out Albarado because he has won nine Grade 1 races at Belmont Park.
"I had no issues with Calvin," Carroll said. "He gave him a great ride in the Derby and brought me back a sound horse. Third was the best the horse could have done that day. Mr. Warren was adamant on getting Robby, based on his Belmont record, and he's the boss."
Albarado has ridden Denis of Cork once, winning the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes on Feb. 18 at Oaklawn Park. That victory capped a three-race winning streak to begin Denis of Cork's career. Following the Southwest he didn't race again until April 5, when he finished fifth in the Grade 2 Illinois Derby at Hawthorne, his Kentucky Derby prep.
"He has a good running style," Albarado said. "He sits back and waits to make his run. Hopefully, Casino Drive will apply some pressure to Big Brown. I guess Big Brown's minor ailments make him vulnerable," a reference to the recent quarter crack that Big Brown evidently has overcome.
"The Belmont's always been a giant killer."
Denis of Cork, he added, "is training really well. He's going into the race really good. We'll just let things materialize. I think he's capable. He's certainly got potential. He showed in the Derby he's got some finish. He was running to the wire."
Denis of Cork was scheduled to have what Carroll described as a "maintenance breeze, something real easy," after the harrow break Monday morning at Churchill. He and the other Churchill-based starter in the Belmont, Macho Again, will be flown to New York by charter Tuesday morning.
Carroll said he was asked recently whether he was training Denis of Cork to run his best race, "or to beat Big Brown."
His reply: "I said, 'When you figure out how Big Brown can be beat, let me in on it.'"
"Obviously, I just have to focus on Denis," Carroll said. "We're going up there hoping this horse's best race is yet to come. He deserves the opportunity. Realistically, we have to go in there thinking that Big Brown will be very tough, but obviously the Belmont is a unique race. The Triple Crown hasn't been won in 30 years, and there's a reason for that. Hopefully, it'll be 31 years or more, and we'll be the reason for that."
2nd,3rd and 4th is anyones guess but big brown win win triple crown with ease. never in the last 30 yrs was i this confident. its a lock. good luck in the exotics||moneybag.gif' border=0>||win.gif' border=0>
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2nd,3rd and 4th is anyones guess but big brown win win triple crown with ease. never in the last 30 yrs was i this confident. its a lock. good luck in the exotics||moneybag.gif' border=0>||win.gif' border=0>
More info on my pick to win Belmont.
**********************************************
Denis of Cork breezes at Churchill
By MARTY McGEE
LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Denis of Cork, the likely third choice for the 140th Belmont Stakes, had his final prerace breeze when going a half-mile in 48.60 seconds over a fast track Monday morning at Churchill Downs.
With his Belmont jockey, Robby Albarado, in the saddle, Denis of Cork galloped out five furlongs in 1:01.60 in what trainer David Carroll had planned as a maintenance work. Denis of Cork had breezed five furlongs on the two previous Mondays at Churchill.
The latest work, said Carroll, was "just something nice to stretch his legs. I was very, very happy with what I saw today. Robby was very careful not to go too fast early. It was just a beautiful thing to watch. We’re excited."
In his last start, Denis of Cork, owned by William and Suzanne Warren, closed strongly to finish third in the May 3 Kentucky Derby under Calvin Borel. The Harlan’s Holiday colt figures as the third wagering choice Saturday in the Belmont behind a pair of unbeatens, Big Brown and Casino Drive.
Denis of Cork and one other Belmont prospect, Macho Again, were scheduled to be flown by charter Tuesday from Louisville to New York.
Macho Again, the Preakness runner-up, had his major prerace work Friday when breezing a half-mile in 48.20 at Churchill. He jogged two miles Monday morning.
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More info on my pick to win Belmont.
**********************************************
Denis of Cork breezes at Churchill
By MARTY McGEE
LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Denis of Cork, the likely third choice for the 140th Belmont Stakes, had his final prerace breeze when going a half-mile in 48.60 seconds over a fast track Monday morning at Churchill Downs.
With his Belmont jockey, Robby Albarado, in the saddle, Denis of Cork galloped out five furlongs in 1:01.60 in what trainer David Carroll had planned as a maintenance work. Denis of Cork had breezed five furlongs on the two previous Mondays at Churchill.
The latest work, said Carroll, was "just something nice to stretch his legs. I was very, very happy with what I saw today. Robby was very careful not to go too fast early. It was just a beautiful thing to watch. We’re excited."
In his last start, Denis of Cork, owned by William and Suzanne Warren, closed strongly to finish third in the May 3 Kentucky Derby under Calvin Borel. The Harlan’s Holiday colt figures as the third wagering choice Saturday in the Belmont behind a pair of unbeatens, Big Brown and Casino Drive.
Denis of Cork and one other Belmont prospect, Macho Again, were scheduled to be flown by charter Tuesday from Louisville to New York.
Macho Again, the Preakness runner-up, had his major prerace work Friday when breezing a half-mile in 48.20 at Churchill. He jogged two miles Monday morning.
lol love the confidence in the favorite. its a joke. he may win it just because its time. but to be so over confident when triple crown bidders get beaten all the time is just stupid.
gl but nothings 100% not even big doo doo||Peace_5.gif' border=0>
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lol love the confidence in the favorite. its a joke. he may win it just because its time. but to be so over confident when triple crown bidders get beaten all the time is just stupid.
gl but nothings 100% not even big doo doo||Peace_5.gif' border=0>
140TH BELMONT STAKES:
Post ....Horse .........Jockey .........Odds
1. Big Brown.......... K. Desormeaux..... 2-5
2. Guadalcanal....... J. Castellano...... 50-1
3. Macho Again....... G. Gomez.......... 20-1
4. Denis of Cork..... R. Albarado....... 12-1
5. Casino Drive...... E. Prado............. 7-2
6. Da’ Tara.......... A. Garcia........... 30-1
7. Tale of Ekat...... E. Coa.............. 20-1
8. Anak Nakal....... J. Leparoux........ 30-1
9. Ready’s Echo.... J. Velazquez....... 30-1
10. Icabad Crane... J. Rose............... 20-1
All carry 126 pounds.
Post time, 6:25 Eastern.
Television, ABC.
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140TH BELMONT STAKES:
Post ....Horse .........Jockey .........Odds
1. Big Brown.......... K. Desormeaux..... 2-5
2. Guadalcanal....... J. Castellano...... 50-1
3. Macho Again....... G. Gomez.......... 20-1
4. Denis of Cork..... R. Albarado....... 12-1
5. Casino Drive...... E. Prado............. 7-2
6. Da’ Tara.......... A. Garcia........... 30-1
7. Tale of Ekat...... E. Coa.............. 20-1
8. Anak Nakal....... J. Leparoux........ 30-1
9. Ready’s Echo.... J. Velazquez....... 30-1
10. Icabad Crane... J. Rose............... 20-1
All carry 126 pounds.
Post time, 6:25 Eastern.
Television, ABC.
Big Brown no lock, Beyers say
By DICK JERARDI
PHILADELPHIA - Assuming Big Brown makes it to the starting gate for the Belmont Stakes, the colt will have one significant issue beyond the hoof problems and the difficulty of making it all the way through the Triple Crown in top form. This will be the colt's fourth Grade 1 race and the first in which he does not have dominant Beyer Speed Figures.
In the Florida Derby, Kentucky Derby, and Preakness, Big Brown laid over the field. Getting 3-2 in Florida and 2-1 in Kentucky looked like real bargains in the stretch.
Getting 1-5 in the Preakness was not unexpected, given the Beyer disparity. The closest last-out Beyer to Big Brown was 10 points. The race played out just as the figures suggested it would.
In fact, last-out Beyers ran one-two in the Preakness when Macho Again (99) closed late to be second to Big Brown (109). That the public went for Gayego as the second choice and let Macho Again go off at 39-1 was a bonus. So was the $36.60 exacta for the true Beyer believers.
By the way, did anybody note the difference in place and exacta prices? Macho Again paid $17.20 to place. Why would you bet that when the exacta paid twice as much and the race was so obviously going to Big Brown?
The Belmont is not nearly so obvious. For the first time in a Grade 1, Big Brown will not enter the gate with a significant Beyer edge in general or with the best last-out Beyer in particular.
Big Brown's Derby Beyer was right on par. The sheet guys are saying it was the greatest Derby ever from a numbers standpoint, apparently because of the ground loss. Our numbers do not suggest that at all.
Big Brown got a 100 Beyer in the Preakness, far off par. In fact, it was the lowest Preakness Beyer in 15 years.
We all saw how easy the Preakness was, that Kent Desormeaux once again rode like he could not lose, that the jockey almost toyed with the field until the top of the stretch when he asked Big Brown to run for maybe 150 yards before easing off the throttle.
Would the colt have run faster if Desormeaux asked? Possibly. But the numbers are the numbers. If you believe, you believe.
Casino Drive got a 101 Beyer in the Peter Pan and will enter the gate at the Belmont with the slightest of last-out Beyer edges.
This Triple Crown really has not been terribly complicated. The fastest horses are getting most of the money. Thinking too much has been a waste of time and counter-productive.
I thought Big Brown had an 80 percent chance of winning the Derby and bet it that way. I thought the Derby winner had a 100 percent chance of winning the Preakness and bet one exacta ticket - best last-out Beyer over second-best last-out Beyer.
Big Brown is going to be 1-5 or 2-5 in the Belmont. I still think he is the most likely winner, but he is not the near lock he was in Kentucky or the absolute lock he was in Baltimore.
The Beyer Figures say this race is close. I am not sure Big Brown's trainer, Rick Dutrow, is going to be able to run to the winner's circle at the quarter pole. I agreed with Dutrow in Louisville and Baltimore when he said Big Brown could not lose. And I loved that he said it.
Casino Drive is the best horse Big Brown has faced. Obviously, it is also true the other way. Check out the video of Casino Drive's first race in Japan. The colt showed very good speed and kept going. In the Peter Pan, Casino Drive ran like a very experienced horse, dealing with several situations like a horse racing for the 12th time, not the second.
Having praised Casino Drive, the reality is that Big Brown is lengths better than anything Casino Drive has faced. Only a truly special horse can win from the 12 post in the Florida Derby, the 20 post in the Kentucky Derby, and win the Preakness in a blowout with not a little bit of disdain.
Still, that 100 Beyer in the Preakness is troubling. What also concerns me is how many smart people in the business are saying the horse can't lose the Belmont. The last time I heard this much unanimity was on Arazi in the 1992 Derby.
The Beyers going into that Derby strongly suggested Arazi was anything but a lock. Perception, however, became reality, and Arazi was bet like a lock, odds-on, and ran eighth.
Big Brown was very real to me going into the Derby and Preakness. Now, there is a perception that the colt is unbeatable when the Beyer reality says that is not the case.
You can root on perception. Betting, however, is about reality.
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Big Brown no lock, Beyers say
By DICK JERARDI
PHILADELPHIA - Assuming Big Brown makes it to the starting gate for the Belmont Stakes, the colt will have one significant issue beyond the hoof problems and the difficulty of making it all the way through the Triple Crown in top form. This will be the colt's fourth Grade 1 race and the first in which he does not have dominant Beyer Speed Figures.
In the Florida Derby, Kentucky Derby, and Preakness, Big Brown laid over the field. Getting 3-2 in Florida and 2-1 in Kentucky looked like real bargains in the stretch.
Getting 1-5 in the Preakness was not unexpected, given the Beyer disparity. The closest last-out Beyer to Big Brown was 10 points. The race played out just as the figures suggested it would.
In fact, last-out Beyers ran one-two in the Preakness when Macho Again (99) closed late to be second to Big Brown (109). That the public went for Gayego as the second choice and let Macho Again go off at 39-1 was a bonus. So was the $36.60 exacta for the true Beyer believers.
By the way, did anybody note the difference in place and exacta prices? Macho Again paid $17.20 to place. Why would you bet that when the exacta paid twice as much and the race was so obviously going to Big Brown?
The Belmont is not nearly so obvious. For the first time in a Grade 1, Big Brown will not enter the gate with a significant Beyer edge in general or with the best last-out Beyer in particular.
Big Brown's Derby Beyer was right on par. The sheet guys are saying it was the greatest Derby ever from a numbers standpoint, apparently because of the ground loss. Our numbers do not suggest that at all.
Big Brown got a 100 Beyer in the Preakness, far off par. In fact, it was the lowest Preakness Beyer in 15 years.
We all saw how easy the Preakness was, that Kent Desormeaux once again rode like he could not lose, that the jockey almost toyed with the field until the top of the stretch when he asked Big Brown to run for maybe 150 yards before easing off the throttle.
Would the colt have run faster if Desormeaux asked? Possibly. But the numbers are the numbers. If you believe, you believe.
Casino Drive got a 101 Beyer in the Peter Pan and will enter the gate at the Belmont with the slightest of last-out Beyer edges.
This Triple Crown really has not been terribly complicated. The fastest horses are getting most of the money. Thinking too much has been a waste of time and counter-productive.
I thought Big Brown had an 80 percent chance of winning the Derby and bet it that way. I thought the Derby winner had a 100 percent chance of winning the Preakness and bet one exacta ticket - best last-out Beyer over second-best last-out Beyer.
Big Brown is going to be 1-5 or 2-5 in the Belmont. I still think he is the most likely winner, but he is not the near lock he was in Kentucky or the absolute lock he was in Baltimore.
The Beyer Figures say this race is close. I am not sure Big Brown's trainer, Rick Dutrow, is going to be able to run to the winner's circle at the quarter pole. I agreed with Dutrow in Louisville and Baltimore when he said Big Brown could not lose. And I loved that he said it.
Casino Drive is the best horse Big Brown has faced. Obviously, it is also true the other way. Check out the video of Casino Drive's first race in Japan. The colt showed very good speed and kept going. In the Peter Pan, Casino Drive ran like a very experienced horse, dealing with several situations like a horse racing for the 12th time, not the second.
Having praised Casino Drive, the reality is that Big Brown is lengths better than anything Casino Drive has faced. Only a truly special horse can win from the 12 post in the Florida Derby, the 20 post in the Kentucky Derby, and win the Preakness in a blowout with not a little bit of disdain.
Still, that 100 Beyer in the Preakness is troubling. What also concerns me is how many smart people in the business are saying the horse can't lose the Belmont. The last time I heard this much unanimity was on Arazi in the 1992 Derby.
The Beyers going into that Derby strongly suggested Arazi was anything but a lock. Perception, however, became reality, and Arazi was bet like a lock, odds-on, and ran eighth.
Big Brown was very real to me going into the Derby and Preakness. Now, there is a perception that the colt is unbeatable when the Beyer reality says that is not the case.
You can root on perception. Betting, however, is about reality.
i have been playing horses for 15 years and counting and i would give you 10-1 8-1 odds jw. if you want to throw your money away go ahead. there are a lot of good superfecta chances out there even with big brown first. i belive tale of ekati stands a good chance of second and icabad crane as well. big brown will not lose. good look loser. might as well throw your money away.||an_burningbag.gif' border=0>
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i have been playing horses for 15 years and counting and i would give you 10-1 8-1 odds jw. if you want to throw your money away go ahead. there are a lot of good superfecta chances out there even with big brown first. i belive tale of ekati stands a good chance of second and icabad crane as well. big brown will not lose. good look loser. might as well throw your money away.||an_burningbag.gif' border=0>
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