___________ Monday.....1st Half play....and more....( in thread ).....GL!

Friday >> 3 - 0

Saturday >> 14 - 6 - 1

up coming games:

yesterday's result for my account....3-1

 Lines effective: 2/18/2008 12:25:41 PM - (PST)

my account show: Providence +2½ +100

 MGM Mirage Casino ....is doing very good right now.

Providence +3 EVEN

Providence +3 -105 >> 5 books .....including pinnacle

Georgetown / Providence Over 61 -105 >> 8 books......including pinnacle

1st half >> 01/05/06 PROV 30 @ GT 24 ( line >> Prov +11 )

1st half >> 03/05/05 PROV 39 @ GT 33 ( line >> Prov +3.5 )

1st half >> 01/26/04 @ PROV 35 GT 18 ( line >> Prov -12 )

25 min.  left   keep tracking those line.

1. This is the basis of the system. You check each match-up’s favored team, and the related point spread/juice for FIRST HALF LINES.

> If a favored team's juice is -110/-115/-120/-125 pick the underdog. 

> If a favored team's juice is -105/even/+100 pick the favored team.

Tighter match-ups will show juice that cancels each other out earlier before tip-off - usually -110/-110. You have to pay attention to what the line opened up at and the line/juice movement right up to tip off. If there is a consensus to one of the two criteria mentioned above, that is your play. Games that are really low in spreads tend to be toss-up games, such -1 or -2. The system may work but either team can take the lead so be cautionary. 

2. The more lines/juice movements you compare, the better. The best site to monitor multiple books and their line movements is SBRlines.com. 

https://www.sbrlines.com/index.php?q=odds&l=college_basketball&period=game&line=pointspread

> In Sbrlines.com choose either NBA or NCAA. Near the top you will see a “button” that’s titled “periods” with three circles next to it. Choose the first half one. Remember, there are THREE pages of books they track, be sure to monitor all three.

The sites that seem to work best (carry the most weight) in this system are Sportsbook, Bodog, Beted, Pinnacle, and BetJamaica. Sportsbook typically doesn’t offer ALL first half lines, so if you have an on-line account it works best if you have multiple ones – Sportsbook and Bodog (seems to favor the underdogs) or Pinnacle (seems to favor the favorites).

3. This system works both in NBA and NCAA. It is for first half only, because the lines move faster in these plays, and that you avoid the game ending “garbage time” where many full game covers are lost.

4. Vegas books open each day with typically ten (NBA or NCAA) plays they want the public to jump on. These tend to open with a consensus movement of 200-300 picks “for” and 100-150 picks “against”. To see these go to www.wagerline.com. In either NBA or NCAA, these consensus picks will be highlighted yellow. Fading these picks in this system will be our strongest plays of the day, because the majority of the public with be jumping on them.

5. For it to be a play, multiple sites (especially those listed above) must all (or nearly all) fit the criteria to #1 above.  Example = Duke vs.Wake Forest. Duke was favored -4.5 and -5 for the first half and their juice stayed at -110, -115, -120 the whole time. Everyone jumped on Wake, and they won. Logic would have told you to take Duke, but if you follow the system, more times then not you will be profitable. Nothing is a sure bet, however, and unfortunately we can’t win them all but Matrixx’s percentages of late are amazing.

6. When tracking different sites, and comparing the odds, make sure the spreads are the same in the sites, or else you have a guessing game when picking

Lines effective: 2/18/2008 12:33:29 PM - (PST)

Xavier / Rhode Island UNDER 71.5 +106 >> last 3 meetings....all games went under 71 for the 1st half.

Utah State / San Jose State UNDER 65 -101 >> last 6 meetings...all games went under 65 for the 1st half.

80% i am going to play this game....20% still tracking line movement on pinnacle. Still early!

7. This systems seems to work better with “earlier” games in NCAA, where the late night games (typically West Coast) don’t have the line/juice movements because not as much of “Joe Public” are playing these late games – this makes it harder to fit the criteria of the system, when there’s less of the public we are fading.

8. If you’re locking in a game, it helps to check the match-up in the odds section of Covers.com, so you are knowledgeable on key injuries, etc. – anything that may suddenly shift the spread/juice