Subject: NCAA Basketball Totals are the toughest line for Sportbooks to get right. Sportbooks can forecast the sides to a much greater accuracy than totals. We, as bettors, have a better chance of winning money by betting on totals. I will discuss two majors topics: 1) Computer System for projecting totals and 2) method for betting totals.
Projecting Totals and First Half Totals:
Basketball totals are depend on possessions, offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, field goal percentage, rebounding, and free thrown percentage. All of the inputs translate into tempo and pace of the game. I utilize the statistics from Kenpom.com to project total lines. I take the tempo and pace of each team and forecast the totals. Thus far, my projected lines are very close to the Sportbooks.
First Half Totals can be easily figured out base on the game total. Take the game total and subtracts 9 points and divide it by 2. The Sportbooks forecast the 2nd half will be 9 points more than the first half because of the fouls during the last few minutes and the possibility of overtime.
1H Total = (Game Total – 9)/2
I will post my forecasted totals for the few games later. I know that the Sportsbooks total typically does not come out until a few hours before the game start.
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