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#1
Lots of talk about how it seems like a good matchup for Michigan because they have the guards to break the press but I think this is actually not a good matchup for Michigan at all.
I heard an interview with Mick Cronin today, coach of the Cincinnati Bearcats. This is a coach that not only knows Pitino well from the Big East but they are good friends and Cronin was an assistant at Louisville under Pitino before he became a head coach. Needless to say he knows Pitino very well and he said he's almost sure that Louisville is going to go after the 3pt shot tonight and take that away from Michigan. Easier said than done of course but Louisville has the perimeter play/quickness/tenacity to keep Michigan from getting good looks from 3. Cronin said he thinks if a Louisville player gives up a good look from 3 that you can look to the bench because that guy will be coming off. If Louisville can filter Michigan down into the paint it should bode quite well as they defend the paint really well (#29 in 2pt FG% defense) and they have a solid shot blocking presence.
On the other end Michigan has been bad inside the arc all season. They rank #182 in the country in 2pt FG% and although conventional wisdom suggests they have been better there in the tourney since the emergence of McGary, that isn't the case as only once in 5 games have they allowed less than their season average in 2pt% FG. In the 5 tourney games they are allowing an average of 52% shooting from 2, which needless to say is terrible. What makes the situation worse is that Louisville does not take many 3's. They did take a whooping 51% of their shots from 3 against Wichita St as Wichita defends the paint well and are very physical down there, which of course Michigan is not. Louisville also trailed for a good chunk of that game which contributed to so many looks from 3. But for the season Louisville only takes 30% from 3 (#263 in the country). This team likes to play in the paint as they have slashing/penetrating guards and two good post players in Dieng/Behanan.
It would appear Louisville has a significant advantage on offense in the paint, Michigan is weak on the interior and Louisville loves to play there. Michigan has played 6 games away from home this year against teams that play in the paint (take 30% of their shots or less from 3) and the results are not pretty. They have allowed the following point totals: 62, 66, 75, 75, 75, and 85. They have not held a single one of these opponents under 1.00 PPP and collectively they are shooting 52.7% from 2. These teams wanted to play in the paint against Michigan (like Louisville) and they had a lot of success.
Michigan does not turn the ball over but one problem is that if Louisville is getting easy looks and buckets in the paint that allows them to set up the pressure. They won't be jacking 3's and allowing Michigan to run out in transition. The teams Michigan have faced thus far in the tourney have been atrocious from 3pt land as they've collectively shot just 24%. As a result there have been a lot of long rebounds and a lot of opportunity for the Michigan guards to run out in transition. Michigan has been a bit lucky in that other teams just aren't hitting shots from 3 on them. Their 2pt defense has been worse in the tourney.
One other note about the press. Louisville has not been playing it as much the last few games and it is NOT the same press as VCU plays. The VCU press is based on traps and if you can break those traps you've got open guys and easy shots. That is what Michigan did and you have those easy shots because VCU couldn't defend this year. They ranked #267 in the country in 2pt defense this year and against Michigan once the traps were broken the Wolverines had the numbers edge and the Michigan starters shot a ridiculous 25-36 (69.4%) from 2. Louisville presses but they don't run a lot of traps. They press with harassing guard play as they swarm like hornets. And if Michigan does break the press they have to contend with a transition defense that is far, far better than VCU. Comparing the VCU and Louisville defenses is not accurate in any way IMO.
Overall this is not a good matchup for Michigan in my eyes. I also like that this Louisville team really loves each other. They've been through everything together and grew up when they lost in the Final Four last season. Michigan has more NBA talent but they haven't been through what this Louisville team has. This team has grown up together and don't have guys who just came to college for one or two years as a bridge to the NBA. Michigan's weakness finally gets exploited and the better TEAM cuts down the nets.
Louisville ML (3 units)
Louisville -4 (1 unit)
GL guys.
I heard an interview with Mick Cronin today, coach of the Cincinnati Bearcats. This is a coach that not only knows Pitino well from the Big East but they are good friends and Cronin was an assistant at Louisville under Pitino before he became a head coach. Needless to say he knows Pitino very well and he said he's almost sure that Louisville is going to go after the 3pt shot tonight and take that away from Michigan. Easier said than done of course but Louisville has the perimeter play/quickness/tenacity to keep Michigan from getting good looks from 3. Cronin said he thinks if a Louisville player gives up a good look from 3 that you can look to the bench because that guy will be coming off. If Louisville can filter Michigan down into the paint it should bode quite well as they defend the paint really well (#29 in 2pt FG% defense) and they have a solid shot blocking presence.
On the other end Michigan has been bad inside the arc all season. They rank #182 in the country in 2pt FG% and although conventional wisdom suggests they have been better there in the tourney since the emergence of McGary, that isn't the case as only once in 5 games have they allowed less than their season average in 2pt% FG. In the 5 tourney games they are allowing an average of 52% shooting from 2, which needless to say is terrible. What makes the situation worse is that Louisville does not take many 3's. They did take a whooping 51% of their shots from 3 against Wichita St as Wichita defends the paint well and are very physical down there, which of course Michigan is not. Louisville also trailed for a good chunk of that game which contributed to so many looks from 3. But for the season Louisville only takes 30% from 3 (#263 in the country). This team likes to play in the paint as they have slashing/penetrating guards and two good post players in Dieng/Behanan.
It would appear Louisville has a significant advantage on offense in the paint, Michigan is weak on the interior and Louisville loves to play there. Michigan has played 6 games away from home this year against teams that play in the paint (take 30% of their shots or less from 3) and the results are not pretty. They have allowed the following point totals: 62, 66, 75, 75, 75, and 85. They have not held a single one of these opponents under 1.00 PPP and collectively they are shooting 52.7% from 2. These teams wanted to play in the paint against Michigan (like Louisville) and they had a lot of success.
Michigan does not turn the ball over but one problem is that if Louisville is getting easy looks and buckets in the paint that allows them to set up the pressure. They won't be jacking 3's and allowing Michigan to run out in transition. The teams Michigan have faced thus far in the tourney have been atrocious from 3pt land as they've collectively shot just 24%. As a result there have been a lot of long rebounds and a lot of opportunity for the Michigan guards to run out in transition. Michigan has been a bit lucky in that other teams just aren't hitting shots from 3 on them. Their 2pt defense has been worse in the tourney.
One other note about the press. Louisville has not been playing it as much the last few games and it is NOT the same press as VCU plays. The VCU press is based on traps and if you can break those traps you've got open guys and easy shots. That is what Michigan did and you have those easy shots because VCU couldn't defend this year. They ranked #267 in the country in 2pt defense this year and against Michigan once the traps were broken the Wolverines had the numbers edge and the Michigan starters shot a ridiculous 25-36 (69.4%) from 2. Louisville presses but they don't run a lot of traps. They press with harassing guard play as they swarm like hornets. And if Michigan does break the press they have to contend with a transition defense that is far, far better than VCU. Comparing the VCU and Louisville defenses is not accurate in any way IMO.
Overall this is not a good matchup for Michigan in my eyes. I also like that this Louisville team really loves each other. They've been through everything together and grew up when they lost in the Final Four last season. Michigan has more NBA talent but they haven't been through what this Louisville team has. This team has grown up together and don't have guys who just came to college for one or two years as a bridge to the NBA. Michigan's weakness finally gets exploited and the better TEAM cuts down the nets.
Louisville ML (3 units)
Louisville -4 (1 unit)
GL guys.
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