My leans for Friday's sweet 16 games - 4-0 yesterday - please comment

4-0 on my leans yesterday.   For the first 3 games tonight, i think its clear which side is the 'right' side from a sharp perspective and thats where i'm going tonight.  Duke game to me is a bit more tricky...

- Oregon vs. L'ville - take Lville -10.   Oregon is hot and playing well, so its tempting to take all these points, isn't it?   i think the play here is to eat the chalk, take lville -10.   Oregon turns the ball over, Lville is one of the best teams in the nation causing turn overs.  I really like Lville to cover the big number, its big for a reason.  also the sharps agree as ~60 of the bets are on Oregon yet the line keeps going up.  

- Michigan vs. Kansas - take Mich +2.  You've got a 1 seed playing a 4 and all you get is 2 points? i asked some of my buddies who are squares on Monday night what they thought the spread was on this game and they said 4-5.   the squares will be pounding Ku thinking they are getting a 'good deal'. squares don't win very much.   I think Michigan's guards play really well tonight and they get the win.  KU been living dangerously, it catched up to them tonight, vegas agrees with the small line.  

FGCU vs. Fla - lay the points with FLA - similar to the orgeon game above, its tempting to take all these points with FGCU who's been playing with a lot of SWAG.  don't do it, the line is large for a reason and the sharps agree with me as most bets are coming in on FGCU yet the line keeps moving up.  The sharp side is with the gators tonight.   blowout coming.

Michigan St. vs Duke - I bought a point and took Duke -1 (-130).  I think duke is the better team, has more offensive weapons and will be able to score with more ease.  MSU scares me with their physcial style and rebounding but i like i said, i think duke's ability to score will be the difference.  Duke has 4-5 guys on any given nite that can light you up.  who's it going to be tonight? i have no idea,  but someone will get hot and that will be the difference.   there are times when MSU struggles offensively, it will rear its ugly head tonight.

Comments appreciated. 

Cheers n gl abizzo24

Abizzo., FWIW, I don't care about the seeds, they're not always accurate, i.e. Oregon, there are always going to be teams misseeded. My concern is the teams playing, the matchup. Also, I look at the lines and the movements, but it's only part of my decision making process, and not really that heavily weighted. If I like the matchup, I could care less who agrees or disagrees with me.

That being said, we're in agreement on Louisville and the Gators.

Best of luck to you!

Like all the plays - they seem obvious and all the obvious plays hit last night as well. 

Russo, so you like L'ville and FLA, what about the other 2?  any thoughts on matchup in those games?

I am opposite on every game.  Either one of us is pleased with the night or the books take our juice. 

Abizzo, if you're really interested, I did a writeup today, "Defense wins games and championships."

GL again!

Where are the games?   KU fans all over Arlington.  UL not enuf offense to cover the number.  2-2. Bol

I can't make up my mind on the Kansas game.  It's hard to pick against the experience, but Michigan is rolling. 

I like your other picks and I am adding the OVER 134 in the Duke - MichST game.  That line seems low for these 2.