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#1
The South Dakota State Jackrabbits take on the Michigan Wolverines in the second round of NCAA action. By now people who have followed these threads know the strengths and weaknesses of the Jackrabbits so I will not belabor those points. Everyone knows I worry about whether the Jacks will be able to hit their outside shots and rebound. So far people have loved to talk about the Jacks defense. Their defense is much improved over the last month or so. Ironically there is marginal statistical difference between Michigan and South Dakota State's defense. Case in point: FG% 41.9% for Michigan vs. 44.2% for SDSU; FT% for Michigan 67.8% vs. 69.5% for SDSU; & 3PT% 33.0% for Michigan vs. 35.7% for SDSU. As you can see the Michigan defense is better but not by much. A couple percentage points difference that is it.
The rebounding is about equal as well between Michigan and SDSU. 35.1 for Michigan vs. 34.8 for SDSU. While I undestand that Michigan plays in the Big10 and SDSU plays in the Summit League a rebound is a rebound. If your technique is poor you would be out rebounded by the St. Marie's Middle School.
South Dakota State is 3-1-1 ATS this year in neutral site games and a perfect 5-0 SU. While Michigan is 4-1 ATS and SU in neutral site games. South Dakota State is 8-3 ATS when playing a team with a winning record while Michigan is 13-12 ATS. Michigan is also 4-9 when playing a team with a winning record the second half of the season while South Dakota State is 4-1.
South Dakota State is 7-1 when playing good defensive teams (teams who allow 64 points per game or less) and 4-0 the second half of the season.
Number crunching also does not demonstrate that Michigan has really $hit the bed the last two games in particular. Failure to close out the home game against Indiana and the $hitty performance in the opening round of the Big10. I have seen this team with basically no heart and failure to close out games on the line. Of course the pressure is only going to get that much more on Michigan because they cannot lose to a team like South Dakota State at a near home game. Believe it or not I like that from a physiological prospective. Additionally as everyone has already seen there will be tons of Michigan State fans at this game. Between the blue and yellow and green I assure you Michigan's home court really shrivels up.
I will have more on this later but for now I will be playing:
South Dakota State +11 for the game
South Dakota State +11 for the game
South Dakota State 1H (last year they were leading at halftime)
Full game under
BOL!
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