\/------Last 8 Days of NCAA Basketball Stats to be Added to Overall Stats------\/
Sunday February 10, 2013 through Monday, February 18, 2013
9 pushes 65 games finished between -0.5 to -3 points off original spread 289 games 578 sides
9 Pushes N. Iowa @ Bradley, Samford @ UT Chatt, Miami FL @ FL St, Drake @ Wichita St, Tulane @ S. Miss, SD ST @ Col St, S. Miss @ E. Car, USC @ Cal, Mich St @ Nebraska.
12 by -0.5 Hawaii, W. Car, Montana, Kansas St, NC St, App St, Weber St, Min, Utah St, Morehead St, CO st, Miss St.
11 by -1 Boise, Seattle, Fairfield, UC Irvine, Towson, La Salle, Will & Mar, Pacific, LA Tech, N AZ, Miss.
9 by -1.5 W. IL, Richmond, N. Mex, Pepper, SJ St, E Kentucky, Loyola MD, Niagara, Creigh.
12 by -2 UNLV, Idaho, NM St, W. Car, Rutgers, Xavier, Alabama, Missouri, Gonzaga, Oregon, St Mary, Seton Hall.
13 by -2.5 Marsh, Charles, WKU, American, Villa, Evansville, Boston Col, Akron, Santa Clara, Missouri KC, UW-Milw, Cleveland St, Missouri St.
8 by -3 St. Peter, Rider, Drexel, Hampton, Marq, Miss, Louis, FSU.
Buy 0.5 point 12 (2.07%) loses to pushes 9 (1.56%) pushes to wins 21 (3.63%) total bets affected by buying 0.5 point
Buy 1 point 11 (1.90%) pushes 21 (3.63%) wins 32 (5.54%) total bets affected by buying 1 point
Buy 1.5 points 9 (1.56%) pushes 32 (11.07%) wins 41 (14.19%) total bets affected by buying 1.5 points
Buy 2 points 12 (1.56%) pushes 41 (7.09%) wins 53 (9.17%) total bets affected by buying 2 points
Buy 2.5 points 13 (2.25%) pushes 53 (9.17%)wins 66 (10.38%) total bets affected by buying 2.5 points
Buy 3 points 8 (1.38%) pushes 66 (11.41%) wins 74 (12.8%) total bets affected by buying 3 points
On
3 points, on average 12.8% of bets that normally would have been a
loss or push would be either a push or a win, but on the other 87.2% of the
bets (regardless of win or lose), you are losing 77% MORE MONEY than
"normal juiced" bet on the original spread of -110.
Paying 77% more for only 12.8% insurance!
If you think a game is going to be THAT CLOSE to the original spread that you want to buy points, why are you even thinking of betting on the game?!?!?THERE ARE BETTER BETS ON THE BOARD!!!!!
\/------Last 8 Days of NCAA Basketball Stats to be Added to Overall Stats------\/
Sunday February 10, 2013 through Monday, February 18, 2013
9 pushes 65 games finished between -0.5 to -3 points off original spread 289 games 578 sides
9 Pushes N. Iowa @ Bradley, Samford @ UT Chatt, Miami FL @ FL St, Drake @ Wichita St, Tulane @ S. Miss, SD ST @ Col St, S. Miss @ E. Car, USC @ Cal, Mich St @ Nebraska.
12 by -0.5 Hawaii, W. Car, Montana, Kansas St, NC St, App St, Weber St, Min, Utah St, Morehead St, CO st, Miss St.
11 by -1 Boise, Seattle, Fairfield, UC Irvine, Towson, La Salle, Will & Mar, Pacific, LA Tech, N AZ, Miss.
9 by -1.5 W. IL, Richmond, N. Mex, Pepper, SJ St, E Kentucky, Loyola MD, Niagara, Creigh.
12 by -2 UNLV, Idaho, NM St, W. Car, Rutgers, Xavier, Alabama, Missouri, Gonzaga, Oregon, St Mary, Seton Hall.
13 by -2.5 Marsh, Charles, WKU, American, Villa, Evansville, Boston Col, Akron, Santa Clara, Missouri KC, UW-Milw, Cleveland St, Missouri St.
8 by -3 St. Peter, Rider, Drexel, Hampton, Marq, Miss, Louis, FSU.
Buy 0.5 point 12 (2.07%) loses to pushes 9 (1.56%) pushes to wins 21 (3.63%) total bets affected by buying 0.5 point
Buy 1 point 11 (1.90%) pushes 21 (3.63%) wins 32 (5.54%) total bets affected by buying 1 point
Buy 1.5 points 9 (1.56%) pushes 32 (11.07%) wins 41 (14.19%) total bets affected by buying 1.5 points
Buy 2 points 12 (1.56%) pushes 41 (7.09%) wins 53 (9.17%) total bets affected by buying 2 points
Buy 2.5 points 13 (2.25%) pushes 53 (9.17%)wins 66 (10.38%) total bets affected by buying 2.5 points
Buy 3 points 8 (1.38%) pushes 66 (11.41%) wins 74 (12.8%) total bets affected by buying 3 points
On
3 points, on average 12.8% of bets that normally would have been a
loss or push would be either a push or a win, but on the other 87.2% of the
bets (regardless of win or lose), you are losing 77% MORE MONEY than
"normal juiced" bet on the original spread of -110.
Paying 77% more for only 12.8% insurance!
If you think a game is going to be THAT CLOSE to the original spread that you want to buy points, why are you even thinking of betting on the game?!?!?THERE ARE BETTER BETS ON THE BOARD!!!!!
There were a record 9 original pushes on original spread in just the last 8 days of NCAA basketball as opposed to the 11 pushes that I had counted out of the previous 22 days of basketball.
In those 9 original pushes in the last 8 days, a bettor could have bought ANY AMOUNT OF JUICE and turned that dull push into a glorified win.
A 50/50 bettor that risked $110 on -110 odds to win $100 buying the original spreads on the games, on 1 team of the last 289 games in the last 8 days, would have won 140, lost 140, and pushed on 9.
140 wins x $100 = $14,000 140 loses x $110 = $16,800
for a loss of $2,800
A 50/50 bettor that risked $120 on -120 to win $100 buying 1/2 point on 1 team of the last 289 games in the last 8 days, would have won 140 plus the 9 pushes that turned into wins with the 1/2 point, and lost 140.
149 x $100 = $14,900 140 x $120 = $16,800
for a loss of $1,900
This was one case where a bettor, ONLY buying 1/2 point for the push to go win would have benefited from it by losing less money in those cases had he hit the probability of 1.56% being original pushes.
There were a record 9 original pushes on original spread in just the last 8 days of NCAA basketball as opposed to the 11 pushes that I had counted out of the previous 22 days of basketball.
In those 9 original pushes in the last 8 days, a bettor could have bought ANY AMOUNT OF JUICE and turned that dull push into a glorified win.
A 50/50 bettor that risked $110 on -110 odds to win $100 buying the original spreads on the games, on 1 team of the last 289 games in the last 8 days, would have won 140, lost 140, and pushed on 9.
140 wins x $100 = $14,000 140 loses x $110 = $16,800
for a loss of $2,800
A 50/50 bettor that risked $120 on -120 to win $100 buying 1/2 point on 1 team of the last 289 games in the last 8 days, would have won 140 plus the 9 pushes that turned into wins with the 1/2 point, and lost 140.
149 x $100 = $14,900 140 x $120 = $16,800
for a loss of $1,900
This was one case where a bettor, ONLY buying 1/2 point for the push to go win would have benefited from it by losing less money in those cases had he hit the probability of 1.56% being original pushes.
There were a record 9 original pushes on original spread in just the
last 8 days of NCAA basketball as opposed to the 11 pushes that I had
counted out of the previous 22 days of basketball.
In those 9
original pushes in the last 8 days, a bettor could have bought ANY
AMOUNT OF JUICE and turned that dull push into a glorified win.
There were also 12 teams that lost by 1/2 point out of 289 games in which 2 teams played. The probability of actually picking one of the 12 bets out of 578 possible bets was 2.07%
A
50/50 bettor that risked $110 on -110 odds to win $100 buying the
original spreads on the games, on 1 team of the last 289 games in the
last 8 days, would have won 140, lost 140, and pushed on 9.
140 wins x $100 = $14,000 140 loses x $110 = $15,400
for a loss of $1,400
A
50/50 bettor that risked $120 on -120 to win $100 buying 1/2 point on 1
team of the last 289 games in the last 8 days, would have won 140 plus
the 9 pushes that turned into wins with the 1/2 point, and lost 140.
149 x $100 = $14,900 140 - (approximately 6 games that would have lost by 1/2 point that turned into a push) = 134 x $120 = $16,080
for a loss of ONLY $1,180
This was one case where a bettor, ONLY buying 1/2 point would have benefited from it by losing less money in those cases
had he hit the probability of 3.63% of bets being affected by the 1/2 point.
There were a record 9 original pushes on original spread in just the
last 8 days of NCAA basketball as opposed to the 11 pushes that I had
counted out of the previous 22 days of basketball.
In those 9
original pushes in the last 8 days, a bettor could have bought ANY
AMOUNT OF JUICE and turned that dull push into a glorified win.
There were also 12 teams that lost by 1/2 point out of 289 games in which 2 teams played. The probability of actually picking one of the 12 bets out of 578 possible bets was 2.07%
A
50/50 bettor that risked $110 on -110 odds to win $100 buying the
original spreads on the games, on 1 team of the last 289 games in the
last 8 days, would have won 140, lost 140, and pushed on 9.
140 wins x $100 = $14,000 140 loses x $110 = $15,400
for a loss of $1,400
A
50/50 bettor that risked $120 on -120 to win $100 buying 1/2 point on 1
team of the last 289 games in the last 8 days, would have won 140 plus
the 9 pushes that turned into wins with the 1/2 point, and lost 140.
149 x $100 = $14,900 140 - (approximately 6 games that would have lost by 1/2 point that turned into a push) = 134 x $120 = $16,080
for a loss of ONLY $1,180
This was one case where a bettor, ONLY buying 1/2 point would have benefited from it by losing less money in those cases
had he hit the probability of 3.63% of bets being affected by the 1/2 point.
A
50/50 bettor that risked $110 on -110 odds to win $100 buying the
original spreads on the games, on 1 team of the last 289 games in the
last 8 days, would have won 140, lost 140, and pushed on 9.
140 wins x $100 = $14,000 140 loses x $110 = $15,400
for a loss of $1,400
A
50/50 bettor that risked $195 on -195 to win $100 buying 3 point on 1
team of the last 289 games in the last 8 days:
140 + ( 9 original pushes turned into wins) + (approx. 29 other spreads that would have originally lost but now win) = 178 x $100 = $17,800 140 - (approx. 29 games that would have originally lost but now won) - (approx. 4 games that would go from a loss to a push) = 107 x $195 = $20,865
for a loss of $3,065
BUYING 3 POINTS WOULD NOT HAVE BEEN BENEFICIAL IN THE LAST 8 DAYS.
A
50/50 bettor that risked $110 on -110 odds to win $100 buying the
original spreads on the games, on 1 team of the last 289 games in the
last 8 days, would have won 140, lost 140, and pushed on 9.
140 wins x $100 = $14,000 140 loses x $110 = $15,400
for a loss of $1,400
A
50/50 bettor that risked $195 on -195 to win $100 buying 3 point on 1
team of the last 289 games in the last 8 days:
140 + ( 9 original pushes turned into wins) + (approx. 29 other spreads that would have originally lost but now win) = 178 x $100 = $17,800 140 - (approx. 29 games that would have originally lost but now won) - (approx. 4 games that would go from a loss to a push) = 107 x $195 = $20,865
for a loss of $3,065
BUYING 3 POINTS WOULD NOT HAVE BEEN BENEFICIAL IN THE LAST 8 DAYS.
People have brought up that "they only pick the games
that matter" as if they are psychic or something, but in the reality of
the situation, IT DOESN'T MATTER HOW YOU BUY THEM,...BUYING ANY AMOUNT OF POINTS IN ANY SITUATION IN ANY FORM OF BASKETBALL HAS A NEGATIVE EFFECT TO YOUR BANK ROLL.
A
few people stated that they "only buy the hook" or half point, whereas
the 0.5 point data shows that there is NO advantage to only buying 0.5
points as compared to any other amount. The bottom line is that the
amount of added juice you pay on your bets IS NOT GREATER than the
amount of money "saved" by extra wins or pushes.
A
few people have believed that "only buying points on games that have
low ORIGINAL SPREADS" as compared to buying points on games with higher
original spreads is profitable...BUT after doing statistical data on
games of PUSH to 3 points of original spread and then buying 0.5 to 3
points on them, showed NO difference in probabilities or anything near
being profitable.
A
few people have thought that "buying games to 7 points" was profitable
to them where 7 points is a "3-score game" and teams "give-up" at that
number, the stats and research STILL said that buying points was
ANYTHING NEAR being PROFITABLE.
Though the stats DID
show that MORE BETS were affected by buying points to 7 than buying to 6
or 8 points (approximately twice as much chances), it DID NOT SHOW A HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY to SAVE MORE MONEY through more pushes and wins THAN THE ADDED JUICE PAID ON ALL BETS.
ALL COMMENTS, THOUGHTS, OR OPINIONS WELCOMED.
DISCUSSIONS AVAILABLE,......ARGUMENTS, CHILD'S PLAY, AND BELITTLING UNWANTED AND NOT NECESSARY.
People have brought up that "they only pick the games
that matter" as if they are psychic or something, but in the reality of
the situation, IT DOESN'T MATTER HOW YOU BUY THEM,...BUYING ANY AMOUNT OF POINTS IN ANY SITUATION IN ANY FORM OF BASKETBALL HAS A NEGATIVE EFFECT TO YOUR BANK ROLL.
A
few people stated that they "only buy the hook" or half point, whereas
the 0.5 point data shows that there is NO advantage to only buying 0.5
points as compared to any other amount. The bottom line is that the
amount of added juice you pay on your bets IS NOT GREATER than the
amount of money "saved" by extra wins or pushes.
A
few people have believed that "only buying points on games that have
low ORIGINAL SPREADS" as compared to buying points on games with higher
original spreads is profitable...BUT after doing statistical data on
games of PUSH to 3 points of original spread and then buying 0.5 to 3
points on them, showed NO difference in probabilities or anything near
being profitable.
A
few people have thought that "buying games to 7 points" was profitable
to them where 7 points is a "3-score game" and teams "give-up" at that
number, the stats and research STILL said that buying points was
ANYTHING NEAR being PROFITABLE.
Though the stats DID
show that MORE BETS were affected by buying points to 7 than buying to 6
or 8 points (approximately twice as much chances), it DID NOT SHOW A HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY to SAVE MORE MONEY through more pushes and wins THAN THE ADDED JUICE PAID ON ALL BETS.
ALL COMMENTS, THOUGHTS, OR OPINIONS WELCOMED.
DISCUSSIONS AVAILABLE,......ARGUMENTS, CHILD'S PLAY, AND BELITTLING UNWANTED AND NOT NECESSARY.
It may not be a Pick or GOY, but this is information that is very beneficial to a bankroll. If I can open the eyes of just one person that will stop buying points in basketball, I've done my part to help keep money in somebody's pocket instead of feeding More money to Vegas and it's minions...after all, they already make a sh*t-ton of $ off us gamblers, let's not give them more!
On the other hand, I posted 7 years of NFL regular season data showing how BUYING 1/2 POINTS TO OR OFF THE KEY NUMBERS OF 3 OR 7 IS BENEFICIAL IN NFL BETTING. Check it out in the NFL Forum under:
It may not be a Pick or GOY, but this is information that is very beneficial to a bankroll. If I can open the eyes of just one person that will stop buying points in basketball, I've done my part to help keep money in somebody's pocket instead of feeding More money to Vegas and it's minions...after all, they already make a sh*t-ton of $ off us gamblers, let's not give them more!
On the other hand, I posted 7 years of NFL regular season data showing how BUYING 1/2 POINTS TO OR OFF THE KEY NUMBERS OF 3 OR 7 IS BENEFICIAL IN NFL BETTING. Check it out in the NFL Forum under:
You are not the first to mention the ONE time it Just Worked out for you...don't forget the other 90% of the time where you bought points and they didn't do Anything for you EXCEPT Win you Less Money or Lose More.
I am always open to keeping a running record on your picks where you "PICK YOUR SPOTS".
It's easy to point out ONE game, but NOBODY IS WILLING TO PUT THE TRUTH OUT THERE BY PICKING "SPOTS", BUYING POINTS AND ALLOWING ME TO SHOW THEM THAT THEY WERE DEAD WRONG AND THEY IN FACT WERE NOT PSYCHIC.
Let me know if you think you can "pick your spots" and I will run all the data on them...people don't like to look at the ACTUALITY of things...and the real fact is that you are pissing away money on juice if you buy points in basketball.
You are not the first to mention the ONE time it Just Worked out for you...don't forget the other 90% of the time where you bought points and they didn't do Anything for you EXCEPT Win you Less Money or Lose More.
I am always open to keeping a running record on your picks where you "PICK YOUR SPOTS".
It's easy to point out ONE game, but NOBODY IS WILLING TO PUT THE TRUTH OUT THERE BY PICKING "SPOTS", BUYING POINTS AND ALLOWING ME TO SHOW THEM THAT THEY WERE DEAD WRONG AND THEY IN FACT WERE NOT PSYCHIC.
Let me know if you think you can "pick your spots" and I will run all the data on them...people don't like to look at the ACTUALITY of things...and the real fact is that you are pissing away money on juice if you buy points in basketball.
Played the ML on GTown last night. That worked out well.
Gotta pick your spots.
I wouldn't have thought Train would make a comment like this. This poster has made an amazing case as to how this almost guarantees you'll lose money in the long run. Pointing out ONE game as some sort of proof to disprove this is pretty absurd. Especially for someone who makes thousands of bets per year.
Played the ML on GTown last night. That worked out well.
Gotta pick your spots.
I wouldn't have thought Train would make a comment like this. This poster has made an amazing case as to how this almost guarantees you'll lose money in the long run. Pointing out ONE game as some sort of proof to disprove this is pretty absurd. Especially for someone who makes thousands of bets per year.
TexasD, great information, enjoyed reading your post and it actually made me wonder about how teasers would have affected the games during the period of study. So instead of buying 0.5 - 3 Points you are paying 20% vs 10% juice for 4 points (2 Team Teaser) or 7 points (3 Team Teaser); have you looked into this?
TexasD, great information, enjoyed reading your post and it actually made me wonder about how teasers would have affected the games during the period of study. So instead of buying 0.5 - 3 Points you are paying 20% vs 10% juice for 4 points (2 Team Teaser) or 7 points (3 Team Teaser); have you looked into this?
I wouldn't have thought Train would make a comment like this. This poster has made an amazing case as to how this almost guarantees you'll lose money in the long run. Pointing out ONE game as some sort of proof to disprove this is pretty absurd. Especially for someone who makes thousands of bets per year.
Of course if you buy a point on every game it will add up. Its not rocket science. If you "pick your spots", and win 60% of those games it doesnt matter. You only pay the juice if you lose. So, that 1 GTown win (instead of a loss at -1.5 spread), can afford me to buy a hook on 10 other games and be even (for juice purposes) if all 10 bets lose.
Also, you are talking about all spreads, which is just worthless numbers. If you are buying hooks on spreads of 5 or more of course it will rarely matter.
I wouldn't have thought Train would make a comment like this. This poster has made an amazing case as to how this almost guarantees you'll lose money in the long run. Pointing out ONE game as some sort of proof to disprove this is pretty absurd. Especially for someone who makes thousands of bets per year.
Of course if you buy a point on every game it will add up. Its not rocket science. If you "pick your spots", and win 60% of those games it doesnt matter. You only pay the juice if you lose. So, that 1 GTown win (instead of a loss at -1.5 spread), can afford me to buy a hook on 10 other games and be even (for juice purposes) if all 10 bets lose.
Also, you are talking about all spreads, which is just worthless numbers. If you are buying hooks on spreads of 5 or more of course it will rarely matter.
You are not the first to mention the ONE time it Just Worked out for you...don't forget the other 90% of the time where you bought points and they didn't do Anything for you EXCEPT Win you Less Money or Lose More.
I am always open to keeping a running record on your picks where you "PICK YOUR SPOTS".
It's easy to point out ONE game, but NOBODY IS WILLING TO PUT THE TRUTH OUT THERE BY PICKING "SPOTS", BUYING POINTS AND ALLOWING ME TO SHOW THEM THAT THEY WERE DEAD WRONG AND THEY IN FACT WERE NOT PSYCHIC.
Let me know if you think you can "pick your spots" and I will run all the data on them...people don't like to look at the ACTUALITY of things...and the real fact is that you are pissing away money on juice if you buy points in basketball.
Anybody?
Wasnt trying to prove you wrong, you are correct. I am saying that if you have done this long enough and eliminate games with spreads above 5ish, the numbers change. I have no proof, just years of watching college hoops. Like I say, you only pay the extra juice if you lose, so you just gotta be a little better than most if you wanna dance with the devil.
You are not the first to mention the ONE time it Just Worked out for you...don't forget the other 90% of the time where you bought points and they didn't do Anything for you EXCEPT Win you Less Money or Lose More.
I am always open to keeping a running record on your picks where you "PICK YOUR SPOTS".
It's easy to point out ONE game, but NOBODY IS WILLING TO PUT THE TRUTH OUT THERE BY PICKING "SPOTS", BUYING POINTS AND ALLOWING ME TO SHOW THEM THAT THEY WERE DEAD WRONG AND THEY IN FACT WERE NOT PSYCHIC.
Let me know if you think you can "pick your spots" and I will run all the data on them...people don't like to look at the ACTUALITY of things...and the real fact is that you are pissing away money on juice if you buy points in basketball.
Anybody?
Wasnt trying to prove you wrong, you are correct. I am saying that if you have done this long enough and eliminate games with spreads above 5ish, the numbers change. I have no proof, just years of watching college hoops. Like I say, you only pay the extra juice if you lose, so you just gotta be a little better than most if you wanna dance with the devil.
My statistics are derived out of "all" games, but that is only to produce a PROBABILITY of a person choosing a spread where buying the points ACTUALLY MATTERED. In other words, if a person were to run their finger through a saturday's-worth of bets in NCAA basketball and PICK ONE BET, the probability of those points EVEN MATTERING or CHANGING THE OUTCOME of the bet is 3.63% if he bought 1/2 point, 5.54% if he bought 1 point, and so on. It DOES NOT MEAN "if a person bets on every team of every game"...that would mean he bet on ONE team AND THEN THE OTHER TEAM that that team was playing against in that ONE game and NOBODY WOULD BUY BOTH SIDES...they would lose the juice every time (except on an original spread that pushed...in which they would win both becuz he bought points on both teams).
Sooo...the probability of YOU "picking your spot" where 1/2 point WILL MATTER, is 3.63%....that's your chances.
Now let's say that YOU are good enough to pick DOUBLE as much...7.26%....still not enough to turn a profit,...I've done the scenario calculations to that in previous threads....I've done over one and a half months of NCAA college basketball stats, but I didn't post them here yet this time...the probabilities are all much the same.
I don't mean any disrespect to you Train by asking you to "pick your spots", but I Highly Doubt you could even beat the 3.63% prob on 1/2 point, let alone double it....or overall even make a profit buying points...I wud keep the stats and calculate everything.
I don't believe people are "psychic" or can REALLY CAP games well enough that they can "pick their spots" and be profitable.
Just remember, it's easy to think "hey, I just won/pushed on a game that I should have lost/pushed...now I can afford to lose 10 games".....
NO, NO, NO....that is NOT how we figure whether we MADE MORE or LESS MONEY when buying points....you must calculate the EXTRA MONEY WON/SAVED MINUS THE MONEY LOST ON THE ADDED JUICE ON THE OTHER 95-90% of games where it didn't matter!
I'm not here to say, "Ha! You lost money! You suck!"
I'm here HOPEFULLY to open people's eyes and save them money through smart mathematical gambling vs Posting Picks.
For your OWN SAKE, do the MATH yourself which involves keeping a record of ALL games where you bought points.
OR do what NOBODY ELSE has done when saying you "have to pick your spots" and give me your spots and the amount of points bought and we will prove that buying points in basketball is a waste of money, together.
My statistics are derived out of "all" games, but that is only to produce a PROBABILITY of a person choosing a spread where buying the points ACTUALLY MATTERED. In other words, if a person were to run their finger through a saturday's-worth of bets in NCAA basketball and PICK ONE BET, the probability of those points EVEN MATTERING or CHANGING THE OUTCOME of the bet is 3.63% if he bought 1/2 point, 5.54% if he bought 1 point, and so on. It DOES NOT MEAN "if a person bets on every team of every game"...that would mean he bet on ONE team AND THEN THE OTHER TEAM that that team was playing against in that ONE game and NOBODY WOULD BUY BOTH SIDES...they would lose the juice every time (except on an original spread that pushed...in which they would win both becuz he bought points on both teams).
Sooo...the probability of YOU "picking your spot" where 1/2 point WILL MATTER, is 3.63%....that's your chances.
Now let's say that YOU are good enough to pick DOUBLE as much...7.26%....still not enough to turn a profit,...I've done the scenario calculations to that in previous threads....I've done over one and a half months of NCAA college basketball stats, but I didn't post them here yet this time...the probabilities are all much the same.
I don't mean any disrespect to you Train by asking you to "pick your spots", but I Highly Doubt you could even beat the 3.63% prob on 1/2 point, let alone double it....or overall even make a profit buying points...I wud keep the stats and calculate everything.
I don't believe people are "psychic" or can REALLY CAP games well enough that they can "pick their spots" and be profitable.
Just remember, it's easy to think "hey, I just won/pushed on a game that I should have lost/pushed...now I can afford to lose 10 games".....
NO, NO, NO....that is NOT how we figure whether we MADE MORE or LESS MONEY when buying points....you must calculate the EXTRA MONEY WON/SAVED MINUS THE MONEY LOST ON THE ADDED JUICE ON THE OTHER 95-90% of games where it didn't matter!
I'm not here to say, "Ha! You lost money! You suck!"
I'm here HOPEFULLY to open people's eyes and save them money through smart mathematical gambling vs Posting Picks.
For your OWN SAKE, do the MATH yourself which involves keeping a record of ALL games where you bought points.
OR do what NOBODY ELSE has done when saying you "have to pick your spots" and give me your spots and the amount of points bought and we will prove that buying points in basketball is a waste of money, together.
And, the one biggest thing that can be questioned about buying points is:
IF YOU ARE BUYING POINTS, WHY ARE YOU EVEN BETTING ON THE GAME?!?
Bottom line is that it is a WEAK PLAY if you thing 1/2 point to ONE EXTRA 3-POINT BASKET is going to help you. If you think that the game is going to be THAT CLOSE to the original spread, THERE HAS GOTTA BE BETTER BETS ON THE BOARD TO BET ON!
When a person has a STRONG PLAY, they think, "I could see this team Running Away with the game and beating the spread by a lot", NOT "I don't know...this could be a close game, I better buy some points."
And, the one biggest thing that can be questioned about buying points is:
IF YOU ARE BUYING POINTS, WHY ARE YOU EVEN BETTING ON THE GAME?!?
Bottom line is that it is a WEAK PLAY if you thing 1/2 point to ONE EXTRA 3-POINT BASKET is going to help you. If you think that the game is going to be THAT CLOSE to the original spread, THERE HAS GOTTA BE BETTER BETS ON THE BOARD TO BET ON!
When a person has a STRONG PLAY, they think, "I could see this team Running Away with the game and beating the spread by a lot", NOT "I don't know...this could be a close game, I better buy some points."
So, you would be an extreme advocate for selling 2.5 points on every bet in college basketball? At roughly +125 per play you dont need to hit a very high %......
So, you would be an extreme advocate for selling 2.5 points on every bet in college basketball? At roughly +125 per play you dont need to hit a very high %......
To haven't done any research on Selling. The only things I can say about selling is that the probabilities would be exactly the reverse of Buying and that from what I personally have seen from my book is that they do not Sell points at the same rate as buying.
I can also say that if a person is willing to SELL points in a game, he is pretty confident in his bet and therefore would be a STRONG play for him. Better to feel confident in a strong play than feel iffy on a weak play that you feel 1/2 pt to a single 3-pointer will change the outcome of the bet.
Haven't looked into selling points, but wud like to hypothesise that it would be profitable provided the book sells 1/2 point for a good price.
Do you know anything of selling points? Or anybody else?
To haven't done any research on Selling. The only things I can say about selling is that the probabilities would be exactly the reverse of Buying and that from what I personally have seen from my book is that they do not Sell points at the same rate as buying.
I can also say that if a person is willing to SELL points in a game, he is pretty confident in his bet and therefore would be a STRONG play for him. Better to feel confident in a strong play than feel iffy on a weak play that you feel 1/2 pt to a single 3-pointer will change the outcome of the bet.
Haven't looked into selling points, but wud like to hypothesise that it would be profitable provided the book sells 1/2 point for a good price.
Do you know anything of selling points? Or anybody else?
And NO, if I were a college basketball gambler that Sells points, I would NOT sell on everygame, but rather the inverse of what you said about buying points and "picking your spots"...I would (if I did) only sell points on games I was Confident in and felt it was my Strongest play of the day/week/month/year.
And NO, if I were a college basketball gambler that Sells points, I would NOT sell on everygame, but rather the inverse of what you said about buying points and "picking your spots"...I would (if I did) only sell points on games I was Confident in and felt it was my Strongest play of the day/week/month/year.
The difference between You Picking Your Spots and me hypothetically Selling points is that I would be Confident when doing so on a Strong play, and You would be Unsure of Your Bet that you would want to buy points to Help your chances of winning.
Excuse me if I am getting you wrong as to why you personally buy points.
The difference between You Picking Your Spots and me hypothetically Selling points is that I would be Confident when doing so on a Strong play, and You would be Unsure of Your Bet that you would want to buy points to Help your chances of winning.
Excuse me if I am getting you wrong as to why you personally buy points.
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