Slim's Sharp Prediction

Question

Early Notes:&#xD;&#xA;The Public is strongly backing: Seton Hall at 80%.&#xD;&#xA;The Public is strongly backing George Mason as a Road Fav at 83%.&#xD;&#xA;ND &#x2B; 9 (opened) now &#x2B;8 is at 62%. This game is very similar to Marquette vs Louisville yesterday IMHO. &#xD;&#xA;Thus far I do not see any RLM.&#xD;&#xA;Nothing jumps out at me today thus far. There are some heavy favorites in the NBA.&#xD;&#xA;The best cappers know when to take a day off. Is this one? I&#x27;m thinking possibly. I will continue to run numbers and look for RLM.&#xD;&#xA;Your thoughts opinions??

Slim-Daddy · Answer

Early Notes:&#xD;&#xA;The Public is strongly backing: Seton Hall at 80%.&#xD;&#xA;The Public is strongly backing George Mason as a Road Fav at 83%.&#xD;&#xA;ND &#x2B; 9 (opened) now &#x2B;8 is at 62%. This game is very similar to Marquette vs Louisville yesterday IMHO. &#xD;&#xA;Thus far I do not see any RLM.&#xD;&#xA;Nothing jumps out at me today thus far. There are some heavy favorites in the NBA.&#xD;&#xA;The best cappers know when to take a day off. Is this one? I&#x27;m thinking possibly. I will continue to run numbers and look for RLM.&#xD;&#xA;Your thoughts opinions??

awright22 · Answer

I just started tracking the days that the public has the most wins vs the days that Vegas has the most wins. This is my second week so far and I will keep the thread updated. Last Monday was a "public win" day in NBA.

awright22 · Answer

Public favorites, that is

Slim-Daddy · Answer

Awright- Thx. Personally how have you done on Mondays historically, they haven&#x27;t been my best days.

awright22 · Answer

I&#x27;ve done so-so on Mondays. I do want to thank you for your picks yesterday. Like I said before, I&#x27;m right in line with your thought process about the public and I tailed you yesterday with the Celtics pick and the Providence pick. Parlayed them. The only thing about fading the public is that Vegas has to give money back to the public to keep them interested. This is why I am following the days. Two Sundays ago, the same as this past Sunday, the public got taken to the slaughter house in the NBA. I think you do a good job of finding the proper one to play. I will give you some of the details of what I recorded last week in a few.

awright22 · Answer

Tuesday, 1/29/13: Public goes 3-1 on large favorites

7:05pm start

GSW (-1.5) 67% on spread for GSW. Public wins

CLE (+1.5)

7:05pm start

Mil (+1) 60% on spread for Mil. Pub wins

Det (-1)

10:05pm start

Dal (+3) 67% on Dal spread. Pub wins

Por (-3)

10:35pm start

Nor (+6.5)

Lakers (-6.5) 82% on Lakers spread. Vegas wins

Teaser78 · Answer

IM WITH YOU TODAY MIGHT BE A TAKE THE DAY OFF BUT STARTING TO LOVE PITT WITH ALL THAT PUBLIC LOVE AND CUSE WITH THAT ND LOVEJUST CANT EVER PLAY ODU THEY ARE HORRIBLE LOL

Slim-Daddy · Answer

Teaser--The interesting thing about is over the weekend no favored teams with a huge spread covered. (at least that I noticed)Ole Miss was -15Butler was -16.5Florida was -17.5I&#x27;m thinking with the public love on Seton Hall it may be time for one to cover. Not highly analytical I know, more gut."Cuse is my highest rated play on the board. ND lines will always be off just b/c of their following. They had a tough time over the wknd with Depaul. &#x27;Cuse is dpleted but now highly motivated!This may be a Parlay for me. I don&#x27;t think teasing is worth the risk &#x27;Cuse -3.5ish and Pitt -11.5 doesn&#x27;t really tickle my fancy...The line movement in Pitt indicates at 15 point game. I think the book is trying to split the middle. They did this to perfection a few times lately that I noticed in a Penn St game and A Michigan game both were last week I believe.Awighrt22 what are your thoughts on this?

Slim-Daddy · Answer

Noticing RLM in San Diego ve LMU. San Diego is at 67% public support. They went from a pick to +1.5?? As a Road Favorite??

I know nothing about either team (down to their records but the movement warrants a small play.

Slim-Daddy · Answer

San Diego played Gonzaga very tough on Saturday night. The book knows something here as they are trying to get the public to support at 70-75%. It will be interesting to see how the public responds. LMU got blown out by Gonzaga 88-43.This is very strange line movement, agreed??

InVegas · Answer

LMU has had 2 more days rest as well.

elizalovesolly · Answer

love syracuse -8 win over double digit!!!!

Slim-Daddy · Answer

I&#x27;m sensing momentum towards a LMU/Syracuse/Pitt card for myself.I may parlay it and play them individual as well.I also will look for my strongest NBA game as well. May do a series of cards tonight.

Teaser78 · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by Slim-Daddy]  Teaser--The interesting thing about is over the weekend no favored teams with a huge spread covered. (at least that I noticed)Ole Miss was -15Butler was -16.5Florida was -17.5I&#x27;m thinking with the public love on Seton Hall it may be time for one to cover. Not highly analytical I know, more gut."Cuse is my highest rated play on the board. ND lines will always be off just b/c of their following. They had a tough time over the wknd with Depaul. &#x27;Cuse is dpleted but now highly motivated!This may be a Parlay for me. I don&#x27;t think teasing is worth the risk &#x27;Cuse -3.5ish and Pitt -11.5 doesn&#x27;t really tickle my fancy...The line movement in Pitt indicates at 15 point game. I think the book is trying to split the middle. They did this to perfection a few times lately that I noticed in a Penn St game and A Michigan game both were last week I believe.Awighrt22 what are your thoughts on this?  [/Quote]agreed its starting to become a gut feeling .. sometimes you have to follow your gut lol

awright22 · Answer

Normally, when I see funny line movement I ask myself why. Then I research the game to find any reason why the "public fav" can lose. Does the underdog have any fighting chance to win?

The Cuse game is a tricky one for me. Cuse is undermanned and they have lost 2 in a row and are trying to avoid their 3rd consecutive loss. Although, they haven't lost at home in quite some time, ND is 3-1 on the road this season in Big East play.

Slim-Daddy · Answer

Leaning Over 176.5 in Indiana vs Chicago (NBA) I predict the o/u line will drop to influence even more under wagering.

Boozer and Noah are out. Indiana is a horrific ofensive team and I look for Chicago to be a little faster paced w/out Boozer and Noah in the line-up.

chuckles394 · Answer

I like ND they can beat the zone with their outside shooting and can pound the boards. Looking at a 4 or 5 point game in my eyes.

Slim-Daddy · Answer

San Diego up to 70% public support &#x2B;1.5 vs LMU the trap is being set.

tinoker55 · Answer

LMU is the play slim, dont overthink your reasoning. My 1st instinct was LMU at a PK..GL..

Teaser78 · Answer

Pitt and LMU bro ...

0031ssgt · Answer

I hear u slim. Slow night on monday. Only 2 games on 4 me both $ lines at -450$ Cuse and OKC nba. Both teams great at home

ysaelee87 · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by Slim-Daddy]  Leaning Over 176.5 in Indiana vs Chicago (NBA) I predict the o/u line will drop to influence even more under wagering.Boozer and Noah are out. Indiana is a horrific ofensive team and I look for Chicago to be a little faster paced w/out Boozer and Noah in the line-up.  [/Quote]i think boozer is going to play today.  read that he is a game time decision but it looks like he will play.  over still sounds good tho, indiana has been playing at a higher tempo the last few games.

Slim-Daddy · Answer

ssgt tread careful as durrant may not play. Rib Contusion

Slim-Daddy · Answer

Now Showing San Diego &#x2B;2 at 66%. Is there an injury the thread should know about??

BankOnIt22 · Answer

Slim, liking the Pitt/Syracuse/LMU leans..Anything in the NBA? Good luck bud!

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