Posted: 12/27/2012 11:17:07 AM
Only leans right now. But there are three games I have my eyes on. I might play all three, two, one or none. I will be back later with my plays (if any). BOL!
I know a lot of people like New Mexico coming off their home loss against South Dakota State. However, what is done is done. Now they have to go into Cincinatti and some how win or at least keep the game close for purpose of the spread. I am not buying it. First lets talk about whether New Mexico can pull off the upset. I frankly don't see it as CIN is just great at home. They are 8-0 SU and 39-7 last three years at home. While New Mexico is 0-2 SU and 4-20 as a road underdog of 6 to 9 points. In other words this team just doesn't play the role of spoiler very well this year or under similar teams. Now that we handled the idea that this team probably cannot win in CIN can they cover the spread. Of course this is certainly more possible than winning outright. As I mentioned earlier as a road underdog of this amount New Mexico is 0-2 ATS but CIN is not much better at 0-1 this year and 3-4 the last three years as a home favorite by this amount. Hard for me ever to play a road dog of less than 4 possessions if I don't think they have a chance at winning. That being said hard for me to lay that many points with CIN too.
If I play this game it will be in a money line parlay or teaser
IPFW +1.5 or +2
First it should be noted that anyone playing this game has to keep an eye on whether Mitchell Patton plays for IUPUI. If not I really love this play. Patton is the second leading scorer and leading rebounder. He is the only capable big man on this team. There is no question that the best player on the court will be for IPFW in Gaines. The guy can flat out ball. He is one of the Summit League leaders in scoring. He is a great player. I the Summit League in pick em type games I love taking the best player with the best team. Also, there is no real track record here between these two teams. Both are capable of winning at home or away against each other. So there is no extreme home court advantage to be had between these two teams. Therefore, I lean the better team with the better record (ATS and SU) with the best player on the court in this Summit League matchup.
Western Illinois -6.5
Another Summit League matchup between Oakland and Western Illinois. I have said all year I really love this team. They get after it, play EXCELLENT defense and have a few decent scoring options. By contrast if the shots are hitting then Oakland can score but play little to no defense. They would prefer to get into a track meet so that their depth comes into play and probably have a legitimate shot at beating anyone if it is a track meet but Western Illinois is well coached and will not fall into this trap. Of all the Summit League teams they are the most likely to turn the game into a half court game and force you to beat them at their game. They force tempo on both offense and defense and most if not all teams follow suit. As a result I do not think that Oakland will be able to sustain all the defensive body blows that Western Illinois throws at them and by the end of the game they will not only lose (I cannot honestly conceive a many realities where OAK comes into WILL and wins the game outright) but will highly likely cover the spread.
Again these are merely my leans for now. I want to monitor a couple things but I will post my plays (if any) later. BOL!