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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Thursday, December 27, 2012 Leans and Plays...
jesron1269 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
jesron1269
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#1
Posted: 12/27/2012 11:17:07 AM

Only leans right now.  But there are three games I have my eyes on.  I might play all three, two, one or none.  I will be back later with my plays (if any).  BOL!

CIN -6

I know a lot of people like New Mexico coming off their home loss against South Dakota State.  However, what is done is done.  Now they have to go into Cincinatti and some how win or at least keep the game close for purpose of the spread.  I am not buying it.  First lets talk about whether New Mexico can pull off the upset.  I frankly don't see it as CIN is just great at home.  They are 8-0 SU and 39-7 last three years at home.  While New Mexico is 0-2 SU and 4-20 as a road underdog of 6 to 9 points.  In other words this team just doesn't play the role of spoiler very well this year or under similar teams.  Now that we handled the idea that this team probably cannot win in CIN can they cover the spread.  Of course this is certainly more possible than winning outright.  As I mentioned earlier as a road underdog of this amount New Mexico is 0-2 ATS but CIN is not much better at 0-1 this year and 3-4 the last three years as a home favorite by this amount.  Hard for me ever to play a road dog of less than 4 possessions if I don't think they have a chance at winning.  That being said hard for me to lay that many points with CIN too. 

If I play this game it will be in a money line parlay or teaser

 

 

IPFW +1.5 or +2

First it should be noted that anyone playing this game has to keep an eye on whether Mitchell Patton plays for IUPUI.  If not I really love this play.  Patton is the second leading scorer and leading rebounder.  He is the only capable big man on this team.  There is no question that the best player on the court will be for IPFW in Gaines.  The guy can flat out ball.  He is one of the Summit League leaders in scoring.  He is a great player.  I the Summit League in pick em type games I love taking the best player with the best team.  Also, there is no real track record here between these two teams.  Both are capable of winning at home or away against each other.  So there is no extreme home court advantage to be had between these two teams.  Therefore, I lean the better team with the better record (ATS and SU) with the best player on the court in this Summit League matchup.

 

Western Illinois -6.5

Another Summit League matchup between Oakland and Western Illinois.  I have said all year I really love this team.  They get after it, play EXCELLENT defense and have a few decent scoring options.  By contrast if the shots are hitting then Oakland can score but play little to no defense.  They would prefer to get into a track meet so that their depth comes into play and probably have a legitimate shot at beating anyone if it is a track meet but Western Illinois is well coached and will not fall into this trap.  Of all the Summit League teams they are the most likely to turn the game into a half court game and force you to beat them at their game.  They force tempo on both offense and defense and most if not all teams follow suit.  As a result I do not think that Oakland will be able to sustain all the defensive body blows that Western Illinois throws at them and by the end of the game they will not only lose (I cannot honestly conceive a many realities where OAK comes into WILL and wins the game outright) but will highly likely cover the spread.

 

Again these are merely my leans for now.  I want to monitor a couple things but I will post my plays (if any) later.  BOL!

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#2
Posted: 12/27/2012 1:06:33 PM
IPFW moved all the way down to pick now.  So there must be something to the injury with Patton or just bunch of people seeing what I see.  Might have to make this a play sooner than later.
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#3
Posted: 12/27/2012 1:14:28 PM

Like I said I am nearly 100% certain both CIN and WIU win today.  So today I am going to do something different so I can have same afternoon action too.  The following are my plays:

San Jose State University ML (football) parlayed with CIN ML (basketball - not football) risking 1.11 to win 1 unit

San Jose State University ML (football) parlayed with WIU ML risking 1 unit to win 1.05 units.

I am certain I will have more plays but just watching the lines and other news for a bit.  BOL!

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#4
Posted: 12/27/2012 1:44:01 PM
i  ve been playing uc all season and will be at the game..if uc can play the entire game ,,they blow new mex out.. uc defense is sick...UC- 5.5  and im playing oakland over 126
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#5
Posted: 12/27/2012 1:48:25 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by knasty007:

i  ve been playing uc all season and will be at the game..if uc can play the entire game ,,they blow new mex out.. uc defense is sick...UC- 5.5  and im playing oakland over 126

I think you are on the right side knasty and I would wait to book that CIN side bet as the line is already down to 5 and who knows it might drop further.  I wish I could get a total on the OAK game.  WIU plays intense defense but despite that that total is too low.  BOL!

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#6
Posted: 12/27/2012 4:21:13 PM
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#7
Posted: 12/27/2012 7:09:03 PM
I cannot confirm whether Patton is out so only one unit on IPFW.  BOL!
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#8
Posted: 12/27/2012 7:16:24 PM
Kinda want to play WIU -4.5 straight but I already have the ML at plus money due to my parlay.  Not going to be greedy and just let it ride.  I have CIN ML and WIU ML left.  Lets go 3-0 today.  Pick it up IPFW.  The big man is out for IUPUI by the way.
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#9
Posted: 12/27/2012 7:51:27 PM
Well now Mitchell Patton is playing again.  I guess he didn't start.  Either way tied up at half.  Lets go IPFW!
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#10
Posted: 12/27/2012 8:30:01 PM
IPFW... lets !  Up 7 with 7 to go.
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#11
Posted: 12/27/2012 8:34:55 PM
IPFW falling apart!  Get your $hit together and finish this game off.
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#12
Posted: 12/27/2012 8:44:47 PM
Not gonna happen my friend. IPFW might as well be Frank Gaines and 4 guys from the rec league.
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#13
Posted: 12/27/2012 8:47:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KingRGIII:

Not gonna happen my friend. IPFW might as well be Frank Gaines and 4 guys from the rec league.

My friend trust me when I say this... that is ALL you need in the Summit League my friend.  This game might be lost.  Mostly due to all the late turnovers (unforced for the most part) but I will gladly take the same bet every day of the week.  This one just did not work out (THIS TIME).
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#14
Posted: 12/27/2012 8:50:43 PM
By the way KingRGIII I see now what all the fuss is about.  Note I posted my leans before that guy made his play and I don't care what anyone else is on as I make my plays only except from time to time if I think someone has a unique take on a game and some expertise I will tail lightly and I always give credit when I tail (for better or worst).
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#15
Posted: 12/27/2012 9:50:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jesron1269:

Like I said I am nearly 100% certain both CIN and WIU win today.  So today I am going to do something different so I can have same afternoon action too.  The following are my plays:

San Jose State University ML (football) parlayed with CIN ML (basketball - not football) risking 1.11 to win 1 unit  PENDING

San Jose State University ML (football) parlayed with WIU ML risking 1 unit to win 1.05 units.  

I am certain I will have more plays but just watching the lines and other news for a bit.  BOL!

IPFW pk risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit  


Other plays:  Had Conner Vernon over 5.5 receptions for 1 unit  
and CIN/DUKE over 62.5 for 1.5 units  
Pending other than above I also have BAY/UCLA under 82.5 for 1.5 units too

Not a bad night (absent the late destruction of IPFW).  I knew I should have played WIU straight.  Cannot win them all.  BOL to all!
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