All Forums | College Basketball

Square Tuesday

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 3368
Posts: 39
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2012
Posts: 2938
Posted: #1
35-37 YTD -29.4 Units

I mentioned that I thought last Friday was a "pay the public day", and I was wrong.  Well I'm saying it again, I think today is a pay the public day, and I think I'm right this time.  Most people don't buy into the idea that books know which games they'll cash in on and which games they'll pay out on.  I'm not one of those people (please spare me the gambling 101 lectures) and I like to look at the big picture.

Yesterday the public really took a bath.  Books absolutely crushed it.  But they know they need to keep people wagering, and the public needs an ego boost so they'll reload their accounts again.  What I've noticed in the past is a vegas public "gift" day after a slaughter sometimes.  It makes sense to me...when everyone is timid to bet favorites, and everyone has depleted accounts, give out a day where favorites hit at a high % and get people interested in betting again.  So with that in mind, I've chosen what I think is the cream of the crop for favorites today.  If I'm right, today will finally be a good day

Placing 2 units on each game.  I'm gunning for 8-2 or better.

Purdue -16
Mich. State -12
S. Miss -3
S. Florida -6
Kansas -14
NC State -7.5
LSU -1
Cal -13
Nebraska -7.5
Ohio State -28.5

Also putting 2 units on a progressive parlay for all 10. 

BOL with your plays today!


 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2012
Posts: 69
Posted: #2
Pasteur what about Miami, mtst, and Vcu...love how you have none of my Favs today listed lol
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2012
Posts: 2938
Posted: #3
I wasn't sure about those games.  I like favorites to cover at a high % today but I tried scratching the ones I thought had a chance of not covering, and those 3 were all cut.  It doesn't mean they aren't good picks though!
 
Covers Rehab
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2005
Posts: 6721
Posted: #4
thats why your down 29 units cause you have no clue!
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2004
Posts: 22937
Posted: #5
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2012
Posts: 413
Posted: #6
Good luck!  Like the way you are mixing it up today.  Who do you like in Illinois Chicago at Western Illinois?
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2011
Posts: 377
Posted: #7
This logic does not make any sense?
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2011
Posts: 16326
Posted: #8

gl buddy

bulls

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2012
Posts: 563
Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by crazy1464:

thats why your down 29 units cause you have no clue!


Yeah. And that's why you're strolling around on covers and blindly tailing people. Cuz YOU have no clue.... Move along chronie

At least dude has the balls to post his plays 

Gl to you pasteur
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2012
Posts: 2938
Posted: #10
Taking one play down off that list:  LSU -1.5.  I'm not convinced they get it done on the road tonight. 

Rolling with the other 9

Good luck guys
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2012
Posts: 2938
Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by Phoreak:

This logic does not make any sense?


It doesn't make sense if you don't pay attention to payout trends.  I've studied them for two years now.
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2008
Posts: 6513
Posted: #12
So are you capping the games or are you guessing when Vegas will take or give your money away?  Try not to take this the wrong way, but it really seems you are just grasping at straws at this point. 

What happened to that break you were going to take?  The last time you said you were going to take one and then didn't you came back and got reamed.  I really hope it doesn't happen this time because I'm considering at least one of your picks. 
Bitcoin, not crypto.
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2012
Posts: 2938
Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by kimoinsd808:

So are you capping the games or are you guessing when Vegas will take or give your money away?  Try not to take this the wrong way, but it really seems you are just grasping at straws at this point. 

What happened to that break you were going to take?  The last time you said you were going to take one and then didn't you came back and got reamed.  I really hope it doesn't happen this time because I'm considering at least one of your picks. 


I'm doing both.  I'm guessing that the public will do very well today based on trends I've seen in the past.  Then I take this mindset and look for favorites that I think are likely to cover today.  Notice I'm not blindly taking every favorite today, I'm still looking at the games and making my best guess.

I'm the first to admit, trying to figure out what vegas is up to ends up with some very streaky results.  But on days I nail it, it can be very profitable. 
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2012
Posts: 2938
Posted: #14
UPDATED CARD:

2 units each:

Purdue -16
Mich. State -12
S. Miss -3
S. Florida -6
Kansas -14
NC State -7.5
Cal -13
Nebraska -7.5
Ohio State -28.5
Midd. Tenn. State -12.5
Cal Irvine +1.5
Long Beach State +13

All 12 in a progressive parlay for 2 units.  This seems reckless but in reality I've spread my risk across several games.  BOL tonight

 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2009
Posts: 19105
Posted: #15
I must not be the public because i cleaned up last night..GL..
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 33526
Posted: #16
Best of Luck Tonight...  long beach st....
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2012
Posts: 2938
Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by DaBuddha:

Good luck!  Like the way you are mixing it up today.  Who do you like in Illinois Chicago at Western Illinois?


Despite having a take on a ton of games tonight, that's just not one of them.  I think it could go either way and it doesn't fit the angle I'm running today.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2011
Posts: 377
Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by Pasteur:



It doesn't make sense if you don't pay attention to payout trends.  I've studied them for two years now.

Studied them for two years...it's taking you 60+ gams to use the trend? I'm not bashing but the volume of plays you're playing is no better if you win 6 out of 10, than playing 2-3 games. 
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2011
Posts: 22762
Posted: #19
Good Luck
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2012
Posts: 900
Posted: #20
Tailed all your games. Hoping for the back end to be better. Really trusted your confidence!!
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2012
Posts: 2938
Posted: #21
Well I was sorta right about favorites hitting more today, they're 11-6 ATS so far by my count.

Too bad I suck at picking which ones.  Back to the drawing board.
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2011
Posts: 16326
Posted: #22

MID TENN ST

 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2007
Posts: 16408
Posted: #23
seems like your just throwing darts bro.

do you have a filter for selecting the favs?
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2011
Posts: 377
Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by Pasteur:

Well I was sorta right about favorites hitting more today, they're 11-6 ATS so far by my count.

Too bad I suck at picking which ones.  Back to the drawing board.

Less plays man, you will be better off that way! GL w/ future plays
 
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2012
Posts: 900
Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by Pasteur:

Well I was sorta right about favorites hitting more today, they're 11-6 ATS so far by my count.

Too bad I suck at picking which ones.  Back to the drawing board.

I enjoyed your right up which made me tail you, but its my fault for trusting in someone else but myself. You seemed so confident and had a great write up, but to be honest anyone could go below .500...
All Forums | College Basketball
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Office Pools
The Covers community has
810,221
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 30 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2026 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.