Tuesday play...

34-17 (+17.3 UNITS)

1-0 yesterday with Bradley covering

UC Irvine +2.5 (1 UNIT) - I am not high on this LSU team. They have started off strong due to a soft schedule and have played once away from home and that was last Friday when Boise St hammered them. There were a couple of surprising things that came away from that game. LSU was dominated on the glass and they were very reliant on the 3PT shot. I expected them to turn it over against Boise St with the way Boise pressures the ball but the advantage I thought LSU had inside was non existent. Coach Johnny Jones is concerned, "We are a good rebounding team and we've got to be able to do that to be successful. We didn't do that in our last game. We are playing a team that is fifth in the country in rebounding so we are going to have to make sure we are focused on rebounding (Tuesday) and we've got to take care of the basketball. Those two areas were glaring with us having 20 turnovers and being beaten on the boards are two areas we have to take care of in Tuesday's game." What he failed to mention is that the Tigers took 29 3PT's. They also allowed Boise St to get to the line 20 more times during the game. Those stats scream UNAGGRESSIVE! Hickey played a few minutes in the game the other night so I expect him to get his minutes tonight.

UC Irvine has played a much tougher schedule (50th SOS). This is only their 4th home game of the year. They have been road warriors. They haven't fared well but it toughens a team up. They have an OT loss to UCLA. The three home games they have played they are 3-0 but 2 of those were over glorified high schools. They are a solid defensive team but LSU should be good in the turnover department tonight as Irvine hasn't turned their opponents over all year. Irvine will likely send LSU to the FT line often but LSU is a terrible FT shooting team.

Irvine's defense will keep them in this game throughout and LSU pushing the pace may make it easier for them to score. Irvine's ability to rebound missed shots is the key here and they have done it well all year. I think this play is more about what I think is an overinflated record of LSU going on the road for only the second time and the first time was a poor performance.

NOTE: I was locking this in at +2 and as I was getting ready to do so it moved to +2.5. Before I finished this writeup it moved all the way to +1. LSU is a worthy fade on the road facing a team who has played a much tougher schedule so far.

LEAN:

Wyoming - I failed to lock in the Cowboys last night at -7 and it is currently -8.5. I will likely be on the Cowboys tonight but waiting to see if I get a better line.

IMO yes...I think they win the game!

Quote Originally Posted by Pasteur:

You talked me out of Ga. Southern yesterday, thanks for that!

Today we're on opposite sides though.  I think LSU wins a close one.  At least one of us will win   BOL, always love your write ups.

This is 80% fade of LSU. I think they are getting ready to go into a tailspin. I do like Irvine's ability to defend and rebound. I don't like that Irvine allows so many FT attempts but LSU hasn't been good at the FT line. Irvine takes are of the ball and they rebound the ball well. I am not a fan of Johnny Jones and think LSU could have done much better. We'll see but I look for LSU to really struggle on the road against a team that has played the better SOS and is coming off a road win (albeit it was Fresno St).

You may be right about the public but that is a complete guess. You know that this is a tough enough gig when you truly cap games but guessing will get you in the hole quickly. The best way to win longterm is go against what everyone else is doing more often than not and get the best lines available. Even if you do all those things you are still going to lose 4 out of 10. It's never a good idea to go for the homerun and you sure as hell can't try to guess what the books are doing. There are a couple of great "spots" out there tonight and a couple of solid situational plays as well but if the lines don't fit the leans then you have to lay off. I hope you get your 8-2 tonight (with LSU being one of your losses) but that is a tough thing to do.

Denver @ Wyoming -9

I am laying off Wyoming at the current line of -9 but I think they handle Denver by DD's tonight. These teams are both pretty slow when it comes to the tempo they like to play. Both teams do a very good job of limiting 2nd chance points. Even though both teams do a good job of taking care of the ball both will tested by defenses tonight that turn their opponent over at a high rate. Both are reliant on the 3PT shot. Wyoming's 3PA/FGA is 7th while Denver's is 4th. Denver doesn't get much inside the line which means they have to knock down the 3PT shot and that puts them as fade material for me as I love to play AGAINST jump shooting teams on the road. Denver is a good FT shooting team but they don't get there often and Wyoming does a good job of keeping their opponent off the FT line. The FT line could and probably will be the difference tonight. Wyoming is 11th in FTA/FGA and they make them once they get there (16th in FT%). I see no clear advantages at all for Denver. On top of the statisical stuff Wyoming has revenge from last year's loss and they are facing a team that has historically been bad on the road. Denver is 1-5 ATS this year and 0-4 as a dog. Over the last couple of years they are 8-19 ATS on the road and 6-17 as a dog. Wyoming is 21-9 ATS at home over their last 30 and they are 20-8 ATS as favorites. I am not a big on those numbers but Denver has been a team to fade on the road for awhile. Wyoming is a pretty popular pick tonight and the line has moved from the initial number of 7. It's a lean only at this point.

Late add:

Richmond +15 (1 UNIT) - situational spot and the line is right

good luck Yacker.  I picked up richmond late last night/early this morning for the extra half point. 

You're probably the best NCAAB capper on covers.  Keep it up