Wednesday plays, Florida State Large!

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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Wednesday plays, Florida State Large!
Pasteur PM Pasteur
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Posted: 12/5/2012 1:10:41 PM
22-17 YTD +13.9 Units
5 Unit plays are 3-2

A 5-2 day yesterday, almost 6-1 if that 3 pointer by UConn at the buzzer misses. 

I have a high degree of confidence in today's picks.  If there was ever a time to follow, today is that day.

Florida State +5.5 5 Units

A good capper needs to sort through the illusions of public perception and the realities of sports.  The illusion we have here is that Florida is Indiana, and Florida State is worse than Mercer.  Don't....buy...into....that.  Florida is a great team, there's no denying that.  But I think they're getting far too much love in a rivalry game tonight.  Beating Marquette-lite soundly on your own floor isn't as big a deal as people think.  And Florida State losing to Mercer?  They were completely looking ahead to this Florida game.  Anyone that wagered on hoops last season knows Florida isn't quite as strong on the road as they are in their own house.  And even though it's a short road trip, this will be more of an away game than they've seen all season.  Some people think sports-books don't take sides.  I'm not one of those people.  They take sides on some games, and tonight they're taking Florida State.  So am I.

South Florida +10 4 Units

This pick will almost be as unpopular as the Fla. St. pick, but I like South Florida catching 10 here.  The Bulls are a veteran team loaded with seniors and really came together as a team in the second half of last season.  On the road late last year they beat Louisville, Pittsburgh, Providence, and lost to a great Syracuse team by 8.  Then they went on and upset California and Temple in the NCAA tournament.  This team can bang with the big boys.  Oklahoma State has talent but they're young and still have a ways to go to gel as a team.  South Florida is already there.

Loyola MD -5 4 Units

Here's an easy one the public gets right.  Loyola returns several starters from last year's squad and they handled Niagara two out of three times last season.  Sports-books can afford to give this easy one back to the public after they rape them in the Florida game.

Gonzaga -11.5 4 Units

Another easy one the public gets right.  Sports-books can limit the payout damage on this game because the Zags are on the road and Washington St. still has some pedigree to the name.  Sports-books also know the gambling public will be timid to bet on a ranked team after Ok. State, Florida, and New Mexico all fail to cover.  Watch and see.  The Zags are firing on all cylinders, playing on the road doesn't phase them, and as good as Brock Motum is for Washington State, he's all they really have.  Zags roll easy.

USC +9.5 4 Units

Speaking of New Mexico not covering, here's the USC pick.  You have a classic public over-reaction to the USC/Nebraska game.  Here's how most people cap this game:  "USC sucks.  New Mexico is ranked.  Me want to bet on New Mexico.  This easy money."  The odds-makers put more thought into it than that, and so should you!.  Let's look at New Mexico.  They don't blow teams out.  They just needed overtime to beat freaking Indiana State.  They have a pretty soft schedule.  When these teams met last year you had an ugly, low scoring 3 point win for New Mexico.  USC will be motivated after losing in Nebraska, and I expect another low scoring, close game.  

Ohio +3 3 Units

Wrong team is favored here.  Ohio is easily the better team, loaded with veterans, and should win this game.  Getting points is just a gift. 

West Virginia -5.5 3 Units

The Mountaineers have flown under the radar so far, posting an unimpressive record but playing a very tough schedule.  Marshall has the better record but is definitely not the better team.  These are the kinds of games sports-books like to pay out to the public:  Ones that the bettors aren't lining up around the corner to wager on.

Tennessee +5.5 3 Units

Virginia has had a good run, but this veteran Vols team should push them to the limit.  I have this capped as a game Tennessee can win, so getting 5.5 points is just gravy.

Other leans:

Charlotte +8.5
Miami (OH) +9
Alabama -8.5
Pepperdine -9
Michigan State -30.5



Tepham PM Tepham
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Posted: 12/5/2012 1:23:30 PM
with you on gonzaga..  fading you with all the rest
betman
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Posted: 12/5/2012 1:26:53 PM
Florida State line up to 6.5.  I knew I should have waited on that one.
Pasteur PM Pasteur
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Posted: 12/5/2012 1:27:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Tepham:

with you on gonzaga..  fading you with all the rest
betman


One of us is going to have a bad day
jjbrez722 PM jjbrez722
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Posted: 12/5/2012 1:30:36 PM
I love the NOLES.......good luck pasteur
Aiball09 PM Aiball09
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Posted: 12/5/2012 1:37:54 PM
FSU Looking forward to this game? Can you explain their other home losses then? Rival game or not everyone thinks it gives home dog a chance the reality is fsu is garbage. -4 was a gift line now it's 6.5 I would still take it
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Aiball09 PM Aiball09
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Posted: 12/5/2012 1:39:33 PM
And if you have never seen USC play don't bet on them. Playin AT New Mexico is one of the hardest places to play in college. I would not lay a dollar on USC
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SlicerDicer PM SlicerDicer
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Posted: 12/5/2012 1:46:22 PM

Love your threads, read them everyday, have no qualms about any plays except the WVA pick, Marshall sporting 2 Top 50 Rebounders, explosive offense albeit against WVA pressure won't put up as many, but expect this to be a close gm and easily could win SU imo. 

Gluck to you today man, like'm all but that one.

 

GAM PM GAM
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Posted: 12/5/2012 1:50:29 PM
Good luck tonight 
WinSeeker PM WinSeeker
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Posted: 12/5/2012 1:51:17 PM
Still licking my wounds from last round...I'll watch and root for your picks. GL! 

Pasteur PM Pasteur
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Posted: 12/5/2012 1:53:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SlicerDicer:

Love your threads, read them everyday, have no qualms about any plays except the WVA pick, Marshall sporting 2 Top 50 Rebounders, explosive offense albeit against WVA pressure won't put up as many, but expect this to be a close gm and easily could win SU imo. 

Gluck to you today man, like'm all but that one.

 



Good points.  However I think it's easy to pad stats when you play soft competition the way Marshall has.  They lost to Hofstra, and barely beat Wilmington and Morehead St.  These are big red flags for Marshall.  GL tonight! 
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Posted: 12/5/2012 1:54:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jjbrez722:

I love the NOLES.......good luck pasteur



Pasteur PM Pasteur
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Posted: 12/5/2012 1:55:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WinSeeker:

Still licking my wounds from last round...I'll watch and root for your picks. GL! 



Totally understand.  In my experience, the best time to follow a capper is the day or two after he has a horrible day 
Pasteur PM Pasteur
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Posted: 12/5/2012 2:00:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Aiball09:

FSU Looking forward to this game? Can you explain their other home losses then? Rival game or not everyone thinks it gives home dog a chance the reality is fsu is garbage. -4 was a gift line now it's 6.5 I would still take it


Everyone thinks it gives a home dog a chance?  Not in this game.  Everyone and their mother is all over Florida.  Florida is the biggest square play of the day by far.

As for the other home losses for the Seminoles, South Alabama hit 9 of 15 3 pointers in that game in combination with Fla. State shooting flat.  South Alabama won't shoot that well again for the rest of the season.  As for the Minnesota loss, this Minnesota team is every bit as good as Florida, in my opinion even better.  No shame to losing to a team like that.  And the Seminoles didn't exactly get blown out in that game.
TyDarius PM TyDarius
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Posted: 12/5/2012 2:02:38 PM
Hey Pastuer, I just went into Salehrol thread and commented about you. But just incase you don't go back into his thread and personally see it. I just wanna thank you for your contribution and insight on games.You definitely know what you're doing. And as a player who is looking for good cappers to tail. It's nice when you come across those that you feel you can trust win or lose. I wanna win, but I also wanna know why i'm putting my money on a team and the reasoning has to make sense to me, and you definitely hit both points when I read your write ups. Once again thanks and BOL today.
Tepham PM Tepham
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Posted: 12/5/2012 2:03:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Pasteur:



One of us is going to have a bad day


I was perfect 5-0 last Wednesday.. One of us is going to have a VERY good day im buying
Tepham PM Tepham
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Posted: 12/5/2012 2:06:25 PM
but then i fell short... late haha..
Aiball09 PM Aiball09
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Posted: 12/5/2012 2:13:43 PM
Fsu was down by almost 20 in that game against Minnesota I believe so it was a blowout lol
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RemiRem PM RemiRem
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Posted: 12/5/2012 2:30:49 PM
Should wait for that FSU spread it'll go up another half point or point come 6pm. People just love Florida today but good luck on that game.

Ohio+3 because they do indeed have veterans and they still can't rebound enough to beat or cover Memphis but i am waiting on that one myself, i think it'll be a close game. Ohio does not miss when they shoot and get in thier groove 56% not to shabby. Dont mattter what defense you're going up against, that's a lot better than Memphis.


USC- Neb did half of what NMex can and will do to them tonight. You'll be taking, well we will all be taking New Mex more as the season goes on. Only been a few days to. Trust us on here, USC is in trouble. I wouldnt take USC+15 honestly.

Good Luck bud, like the write ups and other games for sure. Might be with you on Ohio later.


dmay PM dmay
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Posted: 12/5/2012 2:35:02 PM
I grabbed +6.5 expecting some sharp movement soon. As long as the Seminoles keep this one close we should be good. I never know where these damn lines are gona end up!
tbarrera28 PM tbarrera28
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Posted: 12/5/2012 2:35:09 PM
that FSU line is going to keep going up...
shamuu PM shamuu
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Posted: 12/5/2012 2:45:19 PM
i got the gators at `4 gl,,,,
Pasteur PM Pasteur
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Posted: 12/5/2012 2:53:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by tbarrera28:

that FSU line is going to keep going up...


It won't.  6.5 is as high as that line will get, because if it gets any higher then some people will start to see a lot of value on the home team, and the books don't want to do that.  I'm willing to bet the line drops back down from 6.5 to 5 or 5.5
Pasteur PM Pasteur
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Posted: 12/5/2012 2:54:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dmay:

I grabbed +6.5 expecting some sharp movement soon. As long as the Seminoles keep this one close we should be good. I never know where these damn lines are gona end up!


I think you got peak value at 6.5.  Nicely done 
Pasteur PM Pasteur
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Posted: 12/5/2012 2:56:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TyDarius:

Hey Pastuer, I just went into Salehrol thread and commented about you. But just incase you don't go back into his thread and personally see it. I just wanna thank you for your contribution and insight on games.You definitely know what you're doing. And as a player who is looking for good cappers to tail. It's nice when you come across those that you feel you can trust win or lose. I wanna win, but I also wanna know why i'm putting my money on a team and the reasoning has to make sense to me, and you definitely hit both points when I read your write ups. Once again thanks and BOL today.


Glad to help any way I can Ty
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