Posted:
#1
17-11 YTD +26.1 Units
5 Unit plays are 3-0
I love these short cards. On days like this, books typically have a mix of public payouts and public takes. The trick is to figure out which is which, and that's my specialty.
Wright State +4 5 Units ML (+165) 2 Units
The public gets this one right. My 5 unit plays are rare, as they should be, but I really love Wright State tonight. Bowling Green is terrible. They have one quality win on the season and that only happened because their senior guard had a career night. Bowling Green has an RPI of 336, and while I never base my decisions solely on RPI, having one that low is significant. Home court won't make up for lack of talent here, Wright State wins.
Eastern Michigan +24 3 Units
The public gets this one wrong. Eastern Michigan is loaded with upperclassmen, so you'll see some poise from the underdog tonight. Eastern Mich. guard Derek Thompson hits 43% from behind the arc, and that will help a ton against the Cuse zone they love to play. They're a good FT shooting team, and they have two guys averaging 7 boards a game. Are they a good team? Not really. But Syracuse isn't quite hitting on all cylinders yet (based on what I saw from the Arkansas game) and I think 24.5 is too many points to cover for them here.
USC -2 3 Units
This one is tough to cap, but I think the public gets it wrong. You have the home team, with an RPI almost 100 points higher, as an underdog. Huh? Well that's why you can't solely use RPI to cap a game. I think the level of competition USC has faced is much better than what Nebraska has seen, much like Wisconsin vs. Cal yesterday. The one thing that jumps out at me about this USC team is they're HUGE. They have 3 guys on the roster over 7 feet tall. They out-rebounded SD State 40-32 in a close loss recently, and SD State is heads and shoulders above Nebraska. USC is favored for a reason, don't take the bait and view Nebraska as a "live dog".
Long Beach State -5 3 Units
The public gets this one right. L.B. State is the better team, playing at home, against a very average Fresno team they already beat on THEIR court. Don't over-think this one, it's a no brainer.
ML Parlay Wright St./USC/LB State 1 unit wins 5 units
5 Unit plays are 3-0
I love these short cards. On days like this, books typically have a mix of public payouts and public takes. The trick is to figure out which is which, and that's my specialty.
Wright State +4 5 Units ML (+165) 2 Units
The public gets this one right. My 5 unit plays are rare, as they should be, but I really love Wright State tonight. Bowling Green is terrible. They have one quality win on the season and that only happened because their senior guard had a career night. Bowling Green has an RPI of 336, and while I never base my decisions solely on RPI, having one that low is significant. Home court won't make up for lack of talent here, Wright State wins.
Eastern Michigan +24 3 Units
The public gets this one wrong. Eastern Michigan is loaded with upperclassmen, so you'll see some poise from the underdog tonight. Eastern Mich. guard Derek Thompson hits 43% from behind the arc, and that will help a ton against the Cuse zone they love to play. They're a good FT shooting team, and they have two guys averaging 7 boards a game. Are they a good team? Not really. But Syracuse isn't quite hitting on all cylinders yet (based on what I saw from the Arkansas game) and I think 24.5 is too many points to cover for them here.
USC -2 3 Units
This one is tough to cap, but I think the public gets it wrong. You have the home team, with an RPI almost 100 points higher, as an underdog. Huh? Well that's why you can't solely use RPI to cap a game. I think the level of competition USC has faced is much better than what Nebraska has seen, much like Wisconsin vs. Cal yesterday. The one thing that jumps out at me about this USC team is they're HUGE. They have 3 guys on the roster over 7 feet tall. They out-rebounded SD State 40-32 in a close loss recently, and SD State is heads and shoulders above Nebraska. USC is favored for a reason, don't take the bait and view Nebraska as a "live dog".
Long Beach State -5 3 Units
The public gets this one right. L.B. State is the better team, playing at home, against a very average Fresno team they already beat on THEIR court. Don't over-think this one, it's a no brainer.
ML Parlay Wright St./USC/LB State 1 unit wins 5 units
0
Good Luck
tomrrow a new day i feel your pain
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